Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Paper promises is worth toilet paper these days. See 'Budapest memorandum', 'Minsk Agreement', 'Iran nuclear deal', 'US ABM Treaty'. They are good until they are not. The only way to guarantee long-term national security is conquest or puppet state or regime change. Given all the economic costs endured by Russia, Russia should go big and settle this feud once and for all by eliminating the regime in Kiev. You already have the capital surrounded for fck sakes. Who the heck surrounds a capital, gets a promise to be guai guai (at huge economic costs), then leaves. What retarded strategy is this.
You let suggestion is a much more costly eternal war...
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
When Putin started the war the goals he set meant the Ukrainian state would have to be overthrown. If he wanted a war to just liberate the Donbass, he should have said that.
No, a true strategist never say what he really want and do to the enemy, not even to his subordinates because that will leak to the enemy. Only the most trusted inner circle knows. To keep the strategy working, he need soldiers' absolutely (blindly) following the order.

This principle is not only true on strategic level but on tactical level, the less people knows the more surprise to the enemy.

Commanders are not entertainers.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
The Russians are just withdrawing to more defensible positions that are closer to friendly territory in Belarus and Russia.
it’s called an economy of force maneuver. look at the shape of the current front line around kyiv. there is a enormous number of km of front line that has to be manned to a satisfactory men/km level compare to the square km of territory the Russians actually hold. This means a inordinately large number of troops is required to hold relatively small amount of territory. By simply pulling back from more exposed forward positions, the Russian can shortening and straightening the front line, and thus greatly reducing the troops on essentially frontline guard duty. these troops can then be pulled out of line and redeployed.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
and why should Russia have a "NEXT WAR" or "START A NEW WAR" with Ukraine in future? What are the objectives that Russia is trying to achieve in the "NEXT WAR" with Ukraine that it cannot simply achieve in the present war? This war has lasted since 2014 to present, almost 8 years (mostly via proxy), so Russia direct involvement should just end it now and achieve it's objectives, don't wait for a "NEXT WAR". This is the only war.
Well, it depends on what Russia's objective is.

If Russia's object is to stop Ukraine from joining NATO, then why should Russia NOT start another war with Ukraine if Ukraine started moving towards joining NATO in the future? If the current war will end with Russia and Ukraine sign a peace/seize-fire agreement which allow Russia to annex Donbass, Kherson Oblast, and majority of Zaporizhzhia Oblist (south of Zaporizhzhia city, the Russians control these land now). That creates a southern corridor for Russia to secure Crimea.

If Ukraine is willing to capitulate for a cease-fire/peace treaty, that's their reality: losing the 4 South-East provinces at least for sure. And that opens up a future war that could be started under a host of different pretexts.

Of course, this is all under the condition that the war is to stop now or very soon. I don't see Russia suffering a collapsing defeat in the south with any note worthy possibilities.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I would take any open comment about intent from either side with a very great pinch of salt. They are at War and they are in a process of negotiation.
All that has been said by the Russians is that they will reduce Offensive operations on the most Northern part of the front.
What does that actually mean and how long will that apply? Ultimately its meaningless. So from one shell fired every 15mins down to to one every 30mins?
Nowhere have I read that Russia intended to withdraw from territory or withdraw any units.
It may well however reflect the need to redirect supplies and logistical support for concentration in the Donbas to ensure no loss of momentum once the full fury of the offensive is unleashed.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think it should be everything east of the Dnieper (Kharkiv included). Mind you, that's the bare minimum. The costs that Russia has suffered are way too large for it to go away without at least E+S Ukraine.
Might be too ambitious. With the offensive stalled around Sumy and Kharkiv, the more reasonable short term objective should be liquidation of the Donbass pocket, then marching north (from Mariupol) and west (from Donbass) towards natural borders like the Samara River and everything east of the Donets.

After that, Kharkiv needs to be taken to get to the Vorskla River, which forms a contiguous natural border between East and Central Ukraine.

Only after that can you even think about everything east of the Dnieper. But even taking everything bounded by the Vorskla and Dnieper is a huge gain.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
IMO they are going to focus on the cauldron which holds about 60k Ukrainian troops in the East.
According to Russia, it was 125k:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


When Putin started the war the goals he set meant the Ukrainian state would have to be overthrown. If he wanted a war to just liberate the Donbass, he should have said that.

I'm not alone in what I'm saying, it's what every single Russian military commentator is saying right now. I'm sure it's the opinion every single Russian general and 90% of people around Putin as well. He's gradually replaced the pro-western individuals with Eurasian ones. He's pretty much the only Yeltsin era Atlanticist left in the Kremlin, although we thought his views had changed.

It won't be cheap to occupy the Ukraine, but then you have to ask why he started the war in the first place. Wars never make financial sense.

We'll have to see if this peace treaty is real or not. My instinct tells me that Putin would never agree to it, but he's getting awfully close to signing the dotted line.

Most Russian military commentators are saying it's just political theatre, so I suppose I'll treat it as such until it actually happens.
Not really. Here is the official objective (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)
In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.

The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.


People are synthesizing many of his speeches into one. However, this op has always been about Donbas.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top