Ukrainian War Developments

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LawLeadsToPeace

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They can, it will be a win for Russia.

With the abysmal state of Ukraine economy, that will lose half his territory. It will cripple the EU with another beggar country that is not contributing at all to the economy.
Also, there are 3-4 million refugees in the EU right now, and let’s be real, they always wanted to be in the EU anyways. Assuming Ukraine joined the EU, there will be a mass migration to the West. The refugees from the Middle East already caused societal and economic problems in the West, and there are only 1 million of them. An additional 3-4 million will be a significant problem for the EU.
Heard that the Russians are now withdrawing from Kiev front
Any reasoning why is this happening? Was it part of the negotiations in Istanbul from few hours ago?
Some of us and a RUSI article believed that the siege of Kyiv was a diversion by the Russians to make the encirclement of the bulk of the Ukrainian troops in Donbas easier to achieve. It’s pretty clear that such a hypothesis is true given the progress on the Eastern and Southern fronts. Kyiv was never the main objective to begin with and was overemphasized due to its capital city status.
 
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Phead128

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Says who? You think that gaining all such territory, much of it greatly hostile and unfriendly to Russia intrinsically negates from such results as:

- neutrality of Ukraine
- taking of Donbass
- recognition of Crimea

?

A neutral Ukraine goes a long way towards alleviating Russia's security concerns.

Paper promises is worth toilet paper these days. See 'Budapest memorandum', 'Minsk Agreement', 'Iran nuclear deal', 'US ABM Treaty'. They are good until they are not. The only way to guarantee long-term national security is conquest or puppet state or regime change. Given all the economic costs endured by Russia, Russia should go big and settle this feud once and for all by eliminating the regime in Kiev. You already have the capital surrounded for fck sakes. Who the heck surrounds a capital, gets a promise to be guai guai (at huge economic costs), then leaves. What retarded strategy is this.
 

Jingle Bells

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Not buying that. The costs that Russia has suffered are simply too big to be traded with a piece of paper saying that Ukraine is neutral and taking Donbas
Well, taking into economic side of things in the whole calculation. Russia is certainly winning, if it can get Kherson, Mariupol and Donbass region integrated into Russia. Because this would mean that Russia can always prepare, reorganize and start another war, if they come out of this war with annexed Ukrainian territories and is able to sign at least a seize-fire agreement. The thing is, the forces in Kiev region lacks any sort of meaningful maneuver capabilities, Ukraine needs to rebuild her amour mechanized forces in order to even conduct a counter offensive. At this moment, I don't think Ukraine has that.

If Russia was able to get at least Kherson, Mariupol and Donbass region under its fold, it can simply hold on to these and station guard troops in these region. And that will be the staging point for the next war on Ukraine. Because it is clear now that sanctions can't deter Russia, and NATO is not willing to get involved.
 

Overbom

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So it seems that the "let Ukraine join the EU" comment was wrong. Too much propaganda nowadays

"Those who claim #Russia doesn't object on #Ukraine joining #EU purposely misinterpreted what Medinsky said, the Russian chief negotiator was just listing Kiev's proposals and in the end he clearly stated that a comprehensive peace agreement is not near."
 

Abominable

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Russia will use thermobaric bombs and Daisy cutters against military attempts to take Kherson...

Realistically, conquering Ukraine and/or replacing Zelensky with an unpopular pro Russian puppet cannot be done without greatly costing Russia. Even without having a pro Russian regime installed in Moscow, Russian can obtain a major permanent or very long term objective of its, which is neutrality of Ukraine. Many people dismiss Ukraine officially declaring neutrality as merely paper neutrality that Ukraine could at any time decide to breach even without provocation. Those making such an argument often forget that even if it does so, it will likely not have the backing of NATO and any future Russian retaliation and punitive action by Russia for undertaking such a provocation will be borne largely by itself, and there will not be any appetite among most major NATO countries for another confrontation with Russia caused by Ukraine's provocations.

Among the points that you commented on was Ukraine's willingness to actually accept neutrality without actually resolving the situation of the Donbass and Crimea. It says that would be a subject of other talks. If that is true, it would be effectively a capitulation of de facto acceptance of the loss of the Donbass Region and Crimea. That is a major climb down by Ukraine even though it falls short of actually formally conceding the loss of those two territories.
Whatever happens, this war has turned Russia into public enemy no. 1 for NATO for a generation at least. This war caught NATO off guard, and the next time (if there is one) they will be much more prepared for it.

Any agreements Ukraine makes can easily be abrogated and the only option for Russia to enforce it would be to invade again. With the demilitarisation, Ukraine could send pilots to flying schools in Poland, send soldiers to NATO countries for training on equipment they officially don't own. There are ways around it, just as we saw with Germany used after WW1.

Ukraine would be climbing down if they agreed to losing territory, but the decision ultimately rests with Washington. They could strong arm Zelensky into agreeing to what they see as a reasonable offer by threatening to withdraw support. They may even start leaking some of the war crimes allegations coming out of the Ukraine instead of censoring them.

I think Zelensky will be hated by Ukrainians if he agrees to any territorial concessions, most want it all back including Crimea. But that's a personal sacrifice he could make. He'll probably be offered a political position in America where he'll be an anti-Russian, anti-Chinese, pro-Israel senator for the rest of his political career. He'll fit right in.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
So it seems that the "let Ukraine join the EU" comment was wrong. Too much propaganda nowadays

"Those who claim #Russia doesn't object on #Ukraine joining #EU purposely misinterpreted what Medinsky said, the Russian chief negotiator was just listing Kiev's proposals and in the end he clearly stated that a comprehensive peace agreement is not near."
hahahahahaha, well, I guess we all jump the gun a little bit.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
That Russian negotiator wasnt not speaking clearly... He should have known to be extremely careful with his words
Well, I guess he could also be playing with his word.
But after all, we've already know from pretty early on in this war/conflict, that every piece of "breaking news" text info come out at the earliest hours should be taken with a pinch of salt. Don't go hyping on a few "breaking news" tweets. Wait for it to be verified.
But I guess that's difficult to do because we all want to know the latest news.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
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It's President Elensky now....

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Kiev calls on world to ban ‘Z’​

Ukraine’s foreign minister says the letter symbolizes Russia’s military offensive
Kiev calls on world to ban ‘Z’

A column of Russian military equipment on the highway in the vicinity of Kherson. © Sputnik

Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba has urged the global community to ban the Latin letter “Z” since, from Kiev’s point of view, it represents Russia’s military attack on the country.

“I call on all states to criminalize the use of the ‘Z’ symbol as a way to publicly support Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” Kuleba wrote on Twitter on Tuesday. He added that ‘Z’ means “Russian war crimes, bombed out cities, thousands of murdered Ukrainians” and said that “public support of this barbarism must be forbidden.”

Either the letter “Z” or the letter “V” are the two symbols depicted on all vehicles of the Russian army participating in the military operation in Ukraine. In Russia, both letters have become a widespread symbol to support the Kremlin’s military offensive against Kiev. The letters are commonly used on banners and car stickers.

There are many theories about the origins of the symbol. Some commenters have joked that “V” and “Z” represent the initials of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Others have speculated that the letters signify the attachment of a particular vehicle to Russia’s Western or Eastern military detachments.

Moscow’s Ministry of Defense gave its own explanation in an Instagram post in early March, however, hinting that “Z” stands for “victory” while “V” stands for “truth.”

Lithuanian deputies have also proposed criminalizing the letter “Z” along with the St. George ribbon, which is a Russian symbol to commemorate the Great Patriotic War. The legislators proposed equating both with the Nazi swastika and to punish the disposal of Russian symbols with a 500-euro fine.
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Meanwhile, according to the German newspaper Bild, the letter “Z” as a symbol of Russia’s military operation has already been banned in some regions of Germany, including Berlin, Bavaria, Lower Saxony, and North Rhine-Westphalia.

Moscow attacked Ukraine in late February, following a seven-year standoff over Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk ceasefire agreements, and Russia’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics in Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols had been designed to regularize the status of those regions within the Ukrainian state.

Russia has now demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join NATO. Kiev says the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the Donbass by force.
Start with banning Zelensky.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Not buying that. The costs that Russia has suffered are simply too big to be traded with a piece of paper saying that Ukraine is neutral and taking Donbas
Well, taking into economic side of things in the whole calculation. Russia is certainly winning, if it can get Kherson, Mariupol and Donbass region integrated into Russia. Because this would mean that Russia can always prepare, reorganize and start another war, if they come out of this war with annexed Ukrainian territories and is able to sign at least a seize-fire agreement......

If Russia was able to get at least Kherson, Mariupol and Donbass region under its fold, it can simply hold on to these and station guard troops in these region. And that will be the staging point for the next war on Ukraine. Because it is clear now that sanctions can't deter Russia, and NATO is not willing to get involved.

and why should Russia have a "NEXT WAR" or "START A NEW WAR" with Ukraine in future? What are the objectives that Russia is trying to achieve in the "NEXT WAR" with Ukraine that it cannot simply achieve in the present war? This war has lasted since 2014 to present, almost 8 years (mostly via proxy), so Russia direct involvement should just end it now and achieve it's objectives, don't wait for a "NEXT WAR". This is the only war.
 
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