It seems, to me, that neither side was actually prepared for this conflict. But, then again, maybe their cultural similarities also extend to the domain of warfare?
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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China doesn't need Russian umbrella. The 300+ new silos, DF-41 rollouts and new SSBNs work just fine.
What China does need is Russia's geographic location and existing infrastructure for early warning tracking and global early warning coverage, which is .
China already has and in place. Russia will provide more global coverage and a robust backup.
Just remember Hitler's famous "no retreat" order vs. the Soviet willingness to trade space for time.
Can you prove he didn't? Just because you don't like what he says doesn't mean it isn't genuine. If he didn't write it, it would be an easy propaganda win for China to have him come out and say that, no?
Delete.
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丶一。
silos are incomplete, DF-41s are few in number, the most reliable estimate says china still has much work to do to substantially increase the number of warheads. Lack of a credible nuclear umbrella is china greatest and potentially fatal weakness, and the availability of a credible nuclear umbrella is russia’s one unimpeachably dominating strategic asset.
lol wtf??? how is it an easy propaganda win to respond to a blog post? To respond with the authority of government would be a massive propaganda loss because then it legitimizes any random blog.
If this is true, then it'll hit mainstream media, then US government positions, then you might see a response.
As for now, the actual position of the PRC is what FM spokesman Zhao Lijian says in his capacity as an official representative. Unlike Hu Wei, he's the voice of decisionmakers and actually employed by the central government.
Here's what he says at an official press conference, not some shady 2nd hand webpage:
Hmm, looks to me like he's accusing Ukraine of having bioweapons, saying that China's stance on Ukraine is consistent, then warned NATO against expanding its borders. Doesn't seem to have even 1% negative remarks about Russia.
Russia does not have 10,000 operational tanks. Most tanks are in long term storage. It still has more tanks than the whole of NATO combined though. All Russian "modern" tanks are in active service. But I do not think even half of them are inside Ukraine right now.
The Russians have had quite a few tank losses in this conflict. But I think you should not put much faith in those tank loss numbers you see posted on the Internet. Most Russian tank losses also seem to be from mechanical breakdowns not active combat. To be honest I expected for there to be more Russian tank losses. Given Ukraine has been flooded with modern ATGMs. Both 1990s, 2000s, and even 2010 ones. Had the US faced the same kind of opposition in Iraq 2003 occupation would have been a lot more difficult. Even then the US M1 tanks had issues with the limited RPG-29 stock the Iraqis had and I remember seeing photos of three disabled M1 tanks back then. Some claim there were more US tank losses but they were never published. And the US only officially accounted for tanks which were totally destroyed in Iraq not disabled (i.e. mobility kill) or broken down tanks.
Japan was totally surrounded and had no possibility of supply for long term insurgency. This conflict is going to be much bloodier.
Syria or Iraq like conflict. However it won't go like Afghanistan, like some US analysts talk about. Because this is a conflict right next to Russia's industrial and population core. Supply chains are a lot shorter, interaction with population will be a lot smoother because of lower communication barrier.
That is what you get when you wrap buildings in flammable plastic cladding instead of using concrete.
Some people thought the Russians would be reenacting WWI/II. But a lot of people forget how those wars started in the first place. Artillery is only moved in large numbers once the lines settle down. I also told you guys we would see artillery using Krasnopol rounds sooner or later. And just like I said they are using Krasnopol right now.
This seems to be similar to techniques used in the Syrian war. I think eventually you will see Russia making tank repair depots inside Ukraine proper. Probably after they control the part of Ukraine east of the Dnieper. Right now those are in Russian controlled territory.
The western economy was almost completely decoupled from the Soviet Union and most satellite states for more than four decades during the cold war. Even during the oil crises in the seventies which hit the western world much harder than the current energy crises.
The world is different today of course but decoupling is the most likely outcome if Russia doesn't work out a bilateral solution with Ukraine. No way around it. Everybody lose but Russia the most.
Add rearmament, renewed nuclear deterrence, policy and alliance reaffirment, public sentiments and so on and things do look grim and set in stone for what might follow.
Those that think that everyone will simply forget in a couple of months with everything going back to normal are only fooling themselves.
The world is different today of course but decoupling is the most likely outcome if Russia doesn't work out a bilateral solution with Ukraine. No way around it. Everybody lose but Russia the most.
Add rearmament, renewed nuclear deterrence, policy and alliance reaffirment, public sentiments and so on and things do look grim and set in stone for what might follow.
Those that think that everyone will simply forget in a couple of months with everything going back to normal are only fooling themselves.
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Silos have been completed. See removal of the tents in time lapse images from June 2021 to end of January 2022.
How do you know the numbers of DF-41s? then 16 of them showed up on parade in October.
. If they can miss 20% from one year then how do you know they didn't still miss 20% the next year? Well, we don't have to guess.
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