Ukrainian War Developments

[Lapin]

All those "international" sportbodies have their headquarters in Europe or Murica. While sport is far from the most important realm in politics but nonethless this is also a part of western global hegemony.

All those "international" sportbodies have their headquarters in Europe or Murica. While sport is far from the most important realm in politics but nonethless this is also a part of western global hegemony.

FIDE does not have an institutional anti-Russian bias.
FIDE's headquarters is in Lausanne, Switzerland (which is historically neutral).
FIDE's current president is Arkady Dvorkovic, a former deputy prime minister of Russia.
His longtime predecessor as FIDE president was Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, a president of Kalmykia in Russia.

FIDE has decided to move the 2022 Olympiad from Russia to another country (likely India).
At this time, it's unclear if teams from Russia or Belarus will be banned from the 2022 Olympiad.
Individual players from Russia or Belarus have not been banned.

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"In an appeal to Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, a large number of prominent Russian chess players
call for a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine."

On the other hand, Sergey Karjakin (an ethnic Russian born in Crimea) wrote an open letter to Putin in which
he declared his absolute support for Russia's war. Karjakin (who's now in Dubai) has condemned Ukraine
for alleged war crimes in Donbas. In response, many chess organizers have stated that Karjakin will be
be unwelcome at their events. Some players have called for Karjakin to be punished even further.
Garry Kasparov loudly supported the US-led invasion of Iraq, but no one called for him to be punished.

International chess already has significant friction between Armenian and Azerbaijani players.
I expect that many Ukrainians will refuse to play with Russians, particularly Karjakin.
But FIDE disapproves when anyone (such as Iranians) refuses to play with Israelis.

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

Finland was always under Sweden for ages. Only became part of Russian empire very recently. Plus it has a different language family with a different culture as well.

Finally, Finland fought with The mighty Soviet Union at their peak and forced them to sign treaties. They gained Russian Respect in a sense to remain independent. But even Finland during Soviet times was very different from the very Pro-western Pro EU Finland today. Today's Finland is just paying lip service in terms of Neutrality and not actually Neutral.

I expect if Russia can takeover Ukraine and withstand Western sanctions, rebuild its Military power. They will attack Finland if they try for Nato membership. Even now, an Attack on Finland cannot be ruled out. But with Russian military already so busy in Ukraine, they will probably Threaten to Nuke Finland rather than allow them into Nato.

As long Finland or Sweden are not part of Nato, they can be nuked. Non-nuke states are actually extremely vulnerable to Nuke states. Its just there is a lot of Taboo when it comes to using Nukes. But I think those times are changing. Russia is getting desperate due to Western pressure and it will have to resort to its full scale power to survive.

I'm repeating myself too much.

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MUTUAL DEFENCE CLAUSE

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between EU countries in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defence clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all EU countries. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain EU countries and is consistent with the commitments of EU countries which are NATO members.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) which provides that EU countries are obliged to act jointly where an EU country is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

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Both Finland and Sweden are members of the EU.
France has nuclear weapons.
Any Russian attack on any EU members with NATO memebership will in all likelihood activate NATO Article 5.
USA has nuclear weapons and so has the UK.

It's madness to risk that an all-out nuclear war won't happen
Putin might be willing to risk it but the chance that it won't happen is slim, very slim.

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[SanWenYu]

Part of the German military aid to Ukraine are said to be the USSR era anit-aircraft missiles, 9K38 Igla (SA-16) or even 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7). These missiles belonged to the former East Germany. They must have been in storage for over 30 years.

欧洲国家对乌的军事援助也在继续进行。昨天早些时候曾有媒体报道称，德国决定向乌克兰提供一批原东德库存的9K38“针”便携式防空导弹，这些导弹的储存时间均已超过33年。而据观察者网从德国柏林晨邮报报道中查证，德国向乌克兰提供的2700枚导弹是9K32“箭-2”便携式防空导弹，按照时间推算，这批导弹的储存时间还要更长。

"According to the German newspaper Berliner Morgenpost (德国柏林晨邮报), Germany provided Ukraine 2700 9K32 Strela-2 man-portable air-defense missiles."

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[FairAndUnbiased]

I'm repeating myself too much.

----------

MUTUAL DEFENCE CLAUSE

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between EU countries in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defence clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all EU countries. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain EU countries and is consistent with the commitments of EU countries which are NATO members.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) which provides that EU countries are obliged to act jointly where an EU country is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

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Both Finland and Sweden are members of the EU.
France has nuclear weapons.
Any Russian attack on any EU members with NATO memebership will in all likelihood activate NATO Article 5.
USA has nuclear weapons and so has the UK.

It's madness to risk that an all-out nuclear war won't happen
Putin might be willing to risk it but the chance that it won't happen is slim, very slim.

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Russia can destroy 95% of EU GDP and population of $18 trillion dollars and 700 million people. At worst EU can destroy Russia with $1.6 trillion dollars GDP and 150 million people.

But that's only the worst case. France only has ~200 hundred kT level weapons that haven't been tested frequently. Russia has 5000+ warheads and test launches missiles every year. If even 1 French SSBN is disabled by a Russian SSN or is unluckily in port at the time, France loses a huge part of its deterrent. France doesn't have MAD with Russia.

You can't blackmail Russia with nukes. It has less to lose and far more capability to inflict damage.

 

[OppositeDay]

Yeah, there are going to be a lot of Darwin awards being given out this year.


Yeah, thats what I was thinking.

Chechens have a much bigger impact on this war then their deployment numbers. Both sides media reports talk about them. On the Russian side they are a big boost for the Russian groups who fight along them, and Ukrainians have been fleeing positions when they hear the Chechens are coming.

The PLA should have Uyghur battalions on similar lines.

This is disrespectful. Uyghurs have an illustrious history of serving in the PLA. A number of key battles in the 1962 Sino-Indian War were won by Uyghur commanders. They serve in the PLA just like any other Chinese serve in the PLA. They are not some super mutants psychological war props.

 

[lucretius]

Russia can destroy 95% of EU GDP and population of $18 trillion dollars and 700 million people. At worst EU can destroy Russia with $1.6 trillion dollars GDP and 150 million people.

But that's only the worst case. France only has ~200 hundred kT level weapons that haven't been tested frequently. Russia has 5000+ warheads and test launches missiles every year. If even 1 French SSBN is disabled by a Russian SSN or is unluckily in port at the time, France loses a huge part of its deterrent. France doesn't have MAD with Russia.

You can't blackmail Russia with nukes. It has less to lose and far more capability to inflict damage.

A single British or French SSBN would effectively end Russia as a functioning state. You don't need to carpet bomb the entire landmass, just target the capital and several major cities.

 

[Lapin]

That ukrainian actress ought to show more respect to China to which she owes so much, and not behave as though she's an arrogant westerner telling Chinese what to do with China's foreign policy.

Were Americans right in demanding that Jane Fonda must never criticize the US war in Indochina simply because
Hollywood had made her a star?

A film or television contract may buy an actress's time and skills; it should not buy her conscience or silence.

Anna Netrebko (who has Russian and Austrian citizenship) has just lost many professional opportunities in the West
because she did not go far enough in condemning Russia's war. While she declared that she opposed the war, the Met
(in New York City), for instance, reportedly demanded that she make a public statement explicitly condemning Putin.

"First of all: I am opposed to this war. I am Russian and I love my country but I have many friends in Ukraine and the pain
and suffering right now breaks my heart. I want this war to end and for people to be able to live in peace. This is what I
hope and pray for. I want to add, however, that forcing artists, or any public figure to voice their political opinions in public
and to denounce their homeland is not right. This should be a free choice. I am not a political person. I am not an expert
in politics. I am an artist and my purpose is to unite across political divides.”
--Anna Netrebko

I concur that an artist should not be compelled to take a public political position as a precondition of working in her profession.

Her detractors cite an interview, for instance, in which Anna Netrebko denied rumors that she had slept with Putin yet
implied that she was attracted to him and might have enjoyed becoming his mistress. Every woman has her own taste,
I suppose, and I doubt that Anna Netrebko's taste in men would make her less qualified to perform in opera.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

This is disrespectful. Uyghurs have an illustrious history of serving in the PLA. A number of key battles in the 1962 Sino-Indian War were won by Uyghur commanders. They serve in the PLA just like any other Chinese serve in the PLA. They are not some super mutants psychological war props.

And it's off topic. I swear this will become my new catch phrase.

Part of the German military aid to Ukraine are said to be the USSR era anit-aircraft missiles, 9K38 Igla (SA-16) or even 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7). These missiles belonged to the former East Germany. They must have been in storage for over 30 years.



"According to the German newspaper Berliner Morgenpost (德国柏林晨邮报), Germany provided Ukraine 2700 9K32 Strela-2 man-portable air-defense missiles."

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Do those even work at this point? They must have never been touched since West and Easy Germanies unified.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

A single British or French SSBN would effectively end Russia as a functioning state. You don't need to carpet bomb the entire landmass, just target the capital and several major cities.

Not really. Do an overlay of Moscow and account for the ABM. Then look up a list of Russian cities with over 500k population. They'll survive - crippled, but survive.

Meanwhile Russian weapons would wipe entire EU. Like I said, you can't blackmail Russia, they have less to lose and more capability to inflict harm.

 

[lucretius]

Not really. Do an overlay of Moscow and account for the ABM. Then look up a list of Russian cities with over 500k population. They'll survive - crippled, but survive.

Meanwhile Russian weapons would wipe entire EU. Like I said, you can't blackmail Russia, they have less to lose and more capability to inflict harm.

"Survive" is relative. Fanatical Japan capitulated after 2 low yield strikes.

The country would be ruined.