Of course. I'm just trying a mind game on voyager after that response.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That was already answered. I don't know if you're too scared to read my rebuttal cause you know it's gonna be bad for you or if you have nothing to say so you just repeat defeated points.
Chinese semiconductor industry
Cardinal Sin Don't mistake activities for achievement. Each breakthrough is an achievement. Don't mistake large difficult projects with instant gratification. China is gonna be judged by end result only. Don't compare China to other country because other countries don't have to and US lead...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
Chinese semiconductor industry
Cardinal Sin Don't mistake activities for achievement. Each breakthrough is an achievement. Don't mistake large difficult projects with instant gratification. China is gonna be judged by end result only. Don't compare China to other country because other countries don't have to and US lead...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
Criticizing in a vacuum without comparison is moot and lame. Asking for results when the competition just started in order to criticize is ignorant at best but more likely disingenuous. And trying to disqualify others from answering for the party you wish to malign is sad and pathetic. You wish to verbally attack a party that isn't here to defend itself and then stop others from answering your accusations because you know you cannot defend any of your points to anyone.
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The problem, or perhaps the advantage, of YMTC's NAND Flash is that they use two dies and more or less glue them together. One die has the memory cells and the other has the connections. This means their memory is much faster than their competition but it also means they need twice the fab capacity to manufacture the same memory. So them moving to 192 layers is very important. This means you need less chips to get the same memory capacity. For what it's worth Samsung seems to be falling behind Micron in terms of this memory density with the upcoming generation. Which is a surprise. Samsung has been the leader in VNAND since its inception.
Micron is shipping 176 layers VNAND and Samsung is still stuck at 128 layers VNAND. Samsung plans to go above 128 layers with string-stacking which is similar to YMTC's process. They won't be competitive in price with Micron.
Do you people have any numbers on which fab they are talking about and how many wafers this will be. They claim they will do a $3 billion investment. That sounds like roughly the amount needed to build a single fab. So I estimate this would basically double their capacity at Nanjing which is like 20,000 wafers per month. This does not seem to be that significant.
1. TSMC expansion at Nanjing has been planned for a long time. I think the claim it will be a 28nm expansion is a smokescreen and the equipment will be capable of 16nm.
2. I also follow that on YT. He does seem to have a slight anti-China bias but it is much less than you usually see from a Western POV.
3. They already are?
A lot of it is propaganda. It remains to be seen how large the TSMC fab will be. The demand for US side fab space is low.
TSMC had to have a fab there since Samsung already has one and this will enable them to capture some of those US govt $$$s.
TSMC has already skirted US restrictions. For example their 16nm fab. At the time the US did not allow 14nm process on China's mainland. So what does TSMC do? They manufacture at 16nm which is basically the same as 14nm... It also uses FinFET but is just ever so slightly larger they can respect the letter of the sanctions but not the spirit.
TSMC and Samsung risk sanctions just like SMIC got sanctioned. These companies are dependent on US supplies. Which is why the Chinese government needs to support the non-US fab tools & supplies sector especially those companies in China. I think China should not just fund their own tools sector but also Japan's Nikon with Gigaphoton's EUV light to break the NL ASML with Cymer's EUV light monopoly worldwide. China needs to totally replace US Lam research and Applied Materials. These companies need to be removed from the Chinese supply chain.
Did you read the letter penned by Liang Mong Song? SMIC has done the basic research not just for 5nm but also 3nm. All it needs are the tools and supplies to start manufacturing it. Their EUV litography machine purchase was first sabotaged and now sanctioned by the US. It's not that they "didn't bother to make any" but that they can't make any without the tools.
Is there any material one can read regarding this? I thought any equipment that facilitates 14nm process (is capable of) comes under the ban. So technically, no equipment that can be configured/reconfigured for 14nm ought to be exported.
Soviet gone, China deemed as biggest threat by US think tank. Hainan military plane crash worst than anything today , direct physical clash between China, US, Bush jr ready to take on China fully if not 9/11. US got distracted
2001 is the time China should fully prepare for 100% Indeginous tech.
2021 to have fully Indeginous running 65nm is not too much to ask.
You don't wait for 2018 to find out.
China miscalculated and think it was still buddy to US and use its money saved US from 2008 financial crisis.
Current US think tank deeply remorsed for distracted and not take on China in 2001
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Wow, that's some off topic retrospective crap. Tensions actually deflated for quite a while after that incident so your read on that is wrong as well.
Whenever China begins an outwardly aggressive drive towards indigenous tech is when the US and the West sharply raise their barriers in alarm. Done in 2001, that's when the barriers would have went up and China would have had to largely go at it alone with whatever scientific base they had. Instead, China indigenized as much as it could in a far more discreet manner, and took pretty much 20 more years siphoning up foreign tech and expertise through study abroad students and became much better prepared with a much better foundation to go it alone today. It is China's benefit to push all conflicts, including the tech war, as far down as possible because the more the time goes by, the more the power dynamic shifts towards China.
The most important thing is that China didn't throw all of its eggs in one basket, neither relying on just foreign tech nor swearing to stand alone with all indigenous gear. It made a compromise between the two to grow the fastest. China had already been indigenizing tech on the down low the whole time, which is why this tech war is so limited in the number of targetable areas. If China really didn't prepare, it would have been crushed from the opening bell. But it had to grow and develop, very quickly from a very low point to be able to challenge the US or withstand its offensive it's doing today. You're blaming China that there's a tech war at all, as if China should have perfected everything in secret long before and the US would have nothing to do but forfeit. It's an unreasonable request that demands perfection instead of excellence.
Starting from the time that market forces rewarded indigenization, which is pretty much 2019-2020 to early 2021? It's too much to ask. Other than that, you're just randomly picking a number and saying it's not too much to ask without putting any coherent context around it.
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Those don't learn from history doomed to fail. In front raw geopolitical risks, market force is Nothing.
Biggest alarm to US is China man made islands SCS to protect its nuke subs and can fire into US.
Indeginous drive is much lower threat.
This should be done and accomplished before SCS islands.
Indeginous drive during 2001 US heavily distracted is perfect . A golden opportunity missed
Doing it after 2015 is begging for troubles.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Those who cannot properly analyze trends and even give an accurate depiction of historical events in retrospect have already failed.
That's what North Koreans said, and now they're chewing grass with an air force of 1960s planes.
Yesterday you said it's China's GDP reaching over 60% of America's. See? You don't know how to analyze history but take examples at random. China's nuclear subs can fire on the US from any location without the SCS and its land-based nukes could do that without subs.
That ain't what Trump said. He's scared of MIC2025.
It's a continuous endeavor; if you wait for it to be finished, you will never move to the next thing.
No opportunity missed; China was indigenizing tech and learning Western tech at the same time but China's base was so low, no reasonable person could have expected China to have surpassed the US then.
You and your random dates and numbers... Doing it anytime is asking for trouble and countries that want to be number one aren't scared of trouble.
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The Wassenaar Arrangement was basically that China could only buy machines two generations behind the leading edge. This was based on historical trends where they kept reducing the wavelength of the light sources.
Immersion lithography uses the same light source yet is capable of higher detail. Immersion is basically like putting a lens in front of the regular lens a machine has to imprint finer detail. Since they couldn't upgrade the light source for a long time people worked on improving the lenses.
Then there is another factor where increased detail came with multiple-patterning. Modern multiple-patterning techniques also emerged because of the limitation on improving the light source. These are computational lithography techniques where you use multiple passes to enable the production of increased detail. These require additional masks but no extra tools.
Because of all of these new developments the West had to re-examine the export limitations on tools. For a long time China could not import ArF tools for example. But ever since multiple-patterning was developed it meant China could just use available KrF lithography tools with multiple-patterning to produce at similar resolutions in practice as ArF dry. The industry was getting its initial test EUV lithography tools and ArF immersion was widely available. So the ban on ArF dry was relaxed. Eventually China could manufacture ArF dry tools on their own, EUV tools were in actual use, so the West relaxed the ban on ArF immersion tools. Now China can manufacture its own ArF immersion tools.
The idea of that US AI panel with Eric Schmidt to ban the sales of ArF immersion tools to China is pure brain damage.
What is there to prevent China from modifying the optics of the ArF dry machines they buy and turning them into immersion lithography machines? That is why the industry made ArF immersion tools available to China so readily. Just think about it. 65/28nm requires the ArF light source which is the hardest thing to build. 14nm requires the immersion optical apparatus on top of that which is not that hard to build. 10nm/7nm additionally uses a small mechanical device to ease the multiple-patterning mask switching. Nothing about either of those last two steps is hard to produce. You could just rip the light source out and put it inside your own machine with your own optics.
The fact that China can manufacture their own ArF light sources today makes the whole ban on ArF unviable.
Those US AI panel 'experts' knows nothing about the semiconductor tools sector and it shows.
The West just needs to continue to develop EUV technology to maintain an edge over Chinese technology. Next generation EUV light source with increased power and reduced wavelength and improved optics mean the West will retain its edge in the long term.
In short the idea that Eric Schmidt has that because ArF immersion is enough to produce certain AI hardware it needs to be blocked is pure nonsense. For one China can already build these tools and SMEE will ship its initial devices to customers this year. For another if you do sell ArF machines to China, regardless of type, you are basically providing the hardest to manufacture component and the Chinese can replace the rest easily. For another similar sanctions have been put in the past for devices with a certain computational capability. At one time I think they had limitations based on the number of MIPS or FLOPS a device could have. As these eventually filtered to a point they were available in mass produced products the sanctions lost meaning since it would be easy for any country to buy these mass produced devices on the gray market without anyone spotting it and removing the required components for their own military or government use.
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US will not admit to public the biggest concern is China potentially firing nuke from SCS.
MIC2025 public slogan is ranked lower than that but promoted to top in public.
From 2001to 2010,China can do whatever without any US interference, a golden opportunity missed.
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