J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

[janjak desalin]

[...]I do not think anyone has ever suggested that AL31/WS10A would be suitable for the J20 as its final engine solution. For that, the Chinese are developing the WS15.

Nor did I; a more than cursory reading reveals that.
I offered a critique of Sweetman's poorly conceptualized assessment of the AL-31F independently of the J-20 program, and then of his inept contextualization of it as a component thereof.
I 'm fairly certain that my subjunctive usage was correct.

 

[FarkTypeSoldier]

Dear all,

Military Analyst Programme on 3rd August brings you the subject of “What Could be Determined from its Disappearance for Almost 7 Month?” The guest today is Mr Song Zhong Ping (SZP), a former missile instructor from the PLA Second Artillery Corps.

First cutscene introduces the timeframe of J-20’s prototype 2001, 2002 and then 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015. However, there is a disappearance of 7 months after last 2015’s flight.

When asked about why on earth did it disappearance for such a long period which is unusual, SZP replies that from the photo illustrations on screen, those 00s batch are for “Engineering Verification Testing (EVT)”. Its main tasks are testing of aero dynamics of the airframe, electronics avionics testing as well as flying controls. Based on the EVT’s foundations, then it comes the prototypes, hence from 2011 – 2015, these are prototypes.

The concept of an airplane’s prototype is the freezing of foundation based on the EVT’s. ON the prototype, a lot of test will be conducted. For example, those EVT airframes are for testing of aero dynamics, avionics and flying controls and also tasked with testing of its stealth capabilities. After the tests, the prototypes are created and modified in order to perfect the machine.

A stealth aircraft, similar to 3th gen and 4th gen, has to complete at least 2000 flights, before it’s being turned into the “Finalized Design” frame. If 201Xs were to fly in batches, the 2000 flights would be divided up as compared to only one prototype. This is to reduce the number of flying hours per prototypes to advance to its finalized stage which in turn translates into operational deployment stage. Therefore, in future, if there is a fifth prototype, it would have been a different from the previous 4 prototypes. It might not be a “201X”, rather it might being called “202X”.

Second cutscene brings us to see the 2015’s test flight, from that test flight; we see a reduction in the tail wings. Comparing 2001 & 2015, there are huge differences. In 2015, observers observed there are a stronger cockpit, reduction of tail wings and a different set of air-intake inlets. HD images of 2015 are exposed to the media.

Also, military hobbyists compared 2013 & 2015, there are only slightest changes. From the production of the 4 prototypes of J-20 within a short time span, some speculates the finalized stage and production stage. In additional, there was also a rumor of 2016 being built together with 2015. The timeframe between each prototype of 2012 and 2013 were quite near. Therefore, the 2016 model is expected to come out soon. These prototype testings will shorten the timing to operational status. However, it has been 7 months passed since 2015, and there are not sights of a 2016, hence the attention of its status now.

The host then reiterates that there are 6 prototypes, however now the situation to all is still having high expectations and speculations in hoping of more test flights and modules to test in order to be operational. The host then asked SZP how was the feelings and expectations of people during the 2015 came out.

Mr SZP replies that the 2015 is actually a fusion of all modifications and data gathered from the previous test flights. These modifications included the LCD display which is part of avionics system was shown to masses. The previous LCD screens on previous test airframes are not the finalized product to be used on 2015, now the 2015 shows a new LCD display panel. Other notable changes are the reduction of wings’ edges, which during all previous test flights were changed, modified and perfected into what we have seen. The engineers think that these reductions would increase stealth capabilities as well as aerodynamics of the J-20 final production model. However, SZP also speculates that as compared to previous test frames, although 2015 does have a minor change in appearance, there might be changes in flying control system and its software as well. He also makes comparisons between flying system software differs between F22 and F35 during their pre-production to production stage. Therefore, for a non-operational J-20 now, the software & hardware itself is still not the fully finalized product yet. Once all these software and hardware are froze, it might signify a small production batch for version 2015 J-20.

The various J-20 prototypes

 

[FarkTypeSoldier]

Continues from above...

Third cutscene narrates the history of 2011 to 2015. From some perceptive of US experts, they thought that J-20 is a match for F22, or even better. However US military analysts think the appearance of J-20 will unbalance the SE Asia region.

Next Mr Song comments on why each J-20 prototype attracts difference attention. (I skip this portion as we all know.) On his last part he comments that once the EVT stage reaches all its objectives, weapon system, fire-control system and aiming system could be next objective stage of tests. In weapons tests, EVT airframes are not the planes for testings. There is one frame dubbed the “Slivered-Star Warship” who is in charged of testing the sliver coatings for reliability of the RAM. Every frame has its own objectives to test. Then comes to the final prototype, it needs to go the range for target practices in an airbase. Until then, it would also go through complicated electromagnetic environment tests, on its combat abilities and systems reliabilities. All these required different prototypes to test and if it is not enough, another prototype might be produced for more tests.

After the break, host introduces T-50. It is said that Russian Air Force’s T-50 has also disappeared for a period of time. On June the 16th, a source from US reports that Russia Air Force (RuAF) plans to receive the T-50s in 2016 year end or early 2017. Russian authorities (OAK???) says that it has given RuAF 4x prototype airframes and 2 testing airframes. A further 3 more prototype will be handled over to RuAF in this year’s end. Next is history of T-50 and its test flights.

(Skipped to 29:00)

SZP comments that the wind tunnel in China has a solid foundation which enables the testing of wind model to actual airframe leaped. Computer-Aided Designs in aircraft designs, as compared to handwriting in the past also have speed up its research stage. Despite J-20 was introduced in 2011, he adds that some of the advanced state-of-the-art equipment such as the flying system, aviation avionics and weapons are already in use with J-10 and J-11, hence with proven service records, it enables an ease of use inside the J-20.

At 30:00, on the 2 jagged openings on the body of J-20 latest prototype, he comments that those are “Axillary Power System (辅助动力系统), APS”. When he was at 2nd Artillery researching missiles, APS are also applied to missiles. In order to test the whole airframe on ground, the prototype has to switch on its engines. To do so will cause the engine to shorten its useful lifespan. APS is switch on when the aircraft is grounded to test other systems while the engines are switched off. Hence, the useful lifespan of the engine is consumed in the air, not on the ground. He also compares it with a missile test, the APS also serves the same service purpose.

At the cutscene at 33:18, a US source from the column Diplomat says the J-20 is all but a technology demostration which does not serve any usefulness. It explains the various types of stealth designs on F22, B2 and F117 have triangular designs. The main concerns are on its engines nozzles. F22 has jagged jaw designs on its noozles as well as thrust vectoring. The T-50 has thrust vectoring as well. Whereas J-20 has not have both jagged jaw designs and thrust vectoring. It also analyzed the various changes on the J-20 2011 & 2001. Both prototype have major changes which include fuselage front, engine inlets and the tail wings. To adjust these areas is to improve on J-20’s final design’s aerodynamics and stealth capabilities. Since J-20 2011, the stealth camouflaged pattern changed as well due to the introduction of a new RAM to the body. Currently, only the F22, B2 and F35 have this kind of RAM.

On why do the foreign report reports about J-20’s weaknesses, SZP replies with a Chinese proverb “Every child is unique in their parents’ eyes”. He says although the J-20 is late by a decade, but there is a late-coming’s advantage. F22 is a live unit to study for referencing.

On reports saying the RAM is inferior to US, SZP says some US air force analysts think that the delta wings will hinder the stealth of J-20, however to the Chinese, the delta wings are theorized and conceptualized to adapt for use within the Chinese air force. The delta wings as one can observe, is “concaved upwards” to reduce electromagnetic signatures. The delta wings, on ground preparing takeoff, are also adjusted to another angle as well as in-flight angle adjustments.

On the engines that are not stealthy, SZP says some may think the biggest giveaway to radar is the infra-red signature given off by the engines, the engines in the test frames are not the finalized model on the finalized J-20 design. He believes time will ratify this matter.

A scale model of J-20 showing possible loadout

 

[FarkTypeSoldier]

At 38:27, cutscene goes into 6th gen fighters of the USN, the F/A-XX. The short film anaylsed two points on why USN needs such an aircraft. Firstly, as China and Russia are catching up, US military may lose its technology edge over its 5th gen fighters. Secondly, if the US military does not have an edge over other country over a generation in advance, it cannot win a future war. The J-20 and T-50 may be slowly catching up, but the US industry still has an edging advantage over these two countries. However, this will change eventually. A 6th gen aircraft has to defeat a 5th gen aircraft in order for the 6th gen to be invincible and successful.

The F/A-XX fighter is a 6th gen multi-role fighter. Its main mission comprises of air-superiority, land attack, ship attack and support role. The new concept fighter may also carry laser weapons to defense against itself from incoming missiles, missiles of all varities. It can destroy any hostile targets as anticipated. Its main enemies include the J-21 and J-31. Currently, F22 and F35 may not overcome the newcomers, hence the concept. US military as reported may need the aircraft by 2030 in order for it to compliment the next gen bomber as well. This aims to dominate the air space to achieve total air-superiority over its rivals globally.

On his last segment, SZP says the J-20 and T-50 is definitely the study subject for US military to find their weak spots. ON the other hand, US is studying its next gen fighter & bomber plans. US military reckons that they must have a gen gap between its rival in order to be on top of its rival if there was to be a future war.

However, to meet this objective, one of the requirements for the 6th gen fighter is it must be “reasonably affordable”. Another main consideration for the 6th gen aircraft is AI must be inclusive – for battle survivability and self-reliance. Hence, a 6th gen aircraft is to be both manned and unmanned. Also, the concept using drones to be commanded by a manned aircraft is being thrown on the table. The drones are to compliment the main aircraft in its missions. He draws a scenario whereby a 6th gen aircraft has used up all its weapons, but drones could be sent to execute additional mission while the group is still on air.

On Chinese point of view on this 6th gen, SZP thinks it is still too advance and high to achieve. Currently, the Chinese side needs to think of its own survivability by solving its current affairs which includes East sea and South sea conflicts. Hence, an operational J-20 will only add to China’s advantage position over these conflicts with other countries. These countries are starting to deploy F35 and Su35 soon. With its current air force strength, China is unable to cope with these advance air assets but the deployment of J-20 will gain an upper hand over these countries in order to solve current situation instead of future fighter programmes. Chinese would definitely embark on its 5th gen (6th gen in western definition) aircraft if they could gain time and space over these countries after the deployment of J-20.

Su27 vs J20 vs T50 vs F22

 

[antiterror13]

Would it be a possibility that now PLAAF is fitting WS-15A on new J-120 prototype (2016 or even 2021), it could answer the disappearance of 7 months after last 2015’s flight.

 

[plawolf]

Would it be a possibility that now PLAAF is fitting WS-15A on new J-120 prototype (2016 or even 2021), it could answer the disappearance of 7 months after last 2015’s flight.

Seems a little too good (early) to be true.

The delay between new prototypes is probably down to them just getting on with the less exciting, but truly important task of clocking hours and methodically exploring the flight envelope of the modified 2015 airframe and crunching the numbers generated from those test flights.

2015 is the only one to sport the latest mods, so flight testing would take correspondingly longer than compared to instances where they have 3 or 4 prototypes all flying at the same time.

I think at this point, there are essentially happy with the general layout and performance of the design, and its just down to fine tuning the last few small, but important details before the freeze the design and progress to small batch production.

As such, it is probably not worth it to build multiple new prototypes just to speed the testing of a few small changes.

The J20 would have a huge developmental budget, but it won't be limitless, and they won't be silly with the money. The design team probably want to leave some of the cash spare in case flight testing with 2015 reveal anything that might lead them to want to make further incremental changes.

Better to do that, and built 2016 with those changes already made rather than build it now and have it the same as 2015 so then they have to re-manufacture an existing airframe, or built yet another new prototype to test the changes.

 

[antiterror13]

But 7 months seems a bit too long ... must be something major going on

 

[Air Force Brat]

But 7 months seems a bit too long ... must be something major going on

But 7 months seems a bit too long ... must be something major going on

Thanks to Fark for posting this very interesting and conclusive video, you would have to have been following the J-20 on the Sino Defense Forum to have better information, and this basically affirms the things we have been noting for several years. He did mention that the FCS is being "tweaked" and no doubt as flight test opens up this airplanes envelope, just like the F-35, the airplane will become more agile as they look for that magic mixture of the "right stuff" to bring this girl into production standard.

As to your concerns about the last seven months, while these tweaks and fixes no doubt are ongoing, others have pointed out that "batch production" is the more likely driver of these little apparent hiatus periods? I am expecting up to four LRIP birds to be introduced before the end of the year, one or two as summer rolls into fall??? we shall soon see? or not? LOL

 

[FarkTypeSoldier]

Thanks to Fark for posting this very interesting and conclusive video, you would have to have been following the J-20 on the Sino Defense Forum to have better information, and this basically affirms the things we have been noting for several years. He did mention that the FCS is being "tweaked" and no doubt as flight test opens up this airplanes envelope, just like the F-35, the airplane will become more agile as they look for that magic mixture of the "right stuff" to bring this girl into production standard.

As to your concerns about the last seven months, while these tweaks and fixes no doubt are ongoing, others have pointed out that "batch production" is the more likely driver of these little apparent hiatus periods? I am expecting up to four LRIP birds to be introduced before the end of the year, one or two as summer rolls into fall??? we shall soon see? or not? LOL

Sure... My pleasures... I thought it is good to discuss further. Antiterror13 says 7 months is too long, really it is too long.

I think a jagged nozzle design on J-20's final design would make it very potent against any 5th gen fighters.

 

[lllchairmanlll]

Sure... My pleasures... I thought it is good to discuss further. Antiterror13 says 7 months is too long, really it is too long.

I think a jagged nozzle design on J-20's final design would make it very potent against any 5th gen fighters.

Check out the FC-31 model with serrated nozzle. I bet J-20's will almost look the same.