The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Doesn't sound like what you were saying before when you claimed the tide is turning.
If Ukraine does not give up a substantial piece of itself and wishes to continue, the endgame is to completely absorb Ukraine. I know, you think that the Euros are exhausted but they'll still hang in there for dear life and combined, they should be able to outproduce Russia. But that's not going to cut it.
1. China will not allow Russia to fail. Once Chinese drone production floods into Russia, if needed, the rest of the world will not be able to supply drones to Ukraine to offset it. This war is extremely beneficial to China; Beijing will not allow this to end on unfavorable terms to Russia and we prefer for it not to end at all until China has completed our overtake of the West.
2. The clock is ticking. Ukraine's population of fighting-aged men is dropping. They cannot maintain hostilities if they are at a point where it's hard to see any men in between 12 and 55 on the streets. Russia has no such issue.
3. The big clock is ticking. When China surpasses the West, with Russian help by draining them in Ukraine, the entire global political landscape will change. It will become untenable to continue to support Ukraine and Ukraine itself will be so hollow that support is less and less meaningful anyway.
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
Russia’s strategy can be as simple as to just fight Ukraine to the last Ukrainian.
Ukraine’s population pyramid is already beyond fucked long term, and the longer they keep this up the sooner the population collapse is brought forwards.
I think this is a key reason why the Russians are so reluctant to blow the bridges. The aim isn’t to capture territory asap but to grind Ukraine to dust as a people. Better that Ukraine round up their own able bodied and feed them wholesale into the meat grinder than achieving massive territorial gains too quickly and create potentially insurmountable manpower problems for themselves where they need to portion off parts of their fighting strength to garrison and police captured territories, thereby reducing the amount of manpower on the line. I think that was a major contributor factor to the Russian setbacks during the first Ukrainian major counter offensive and I think the Russians are not in a hurry to repeat that mistake again.
So it’s slow and steady that they want. And a bonus side effect for them of this slow and steady grind is that civilians are driven out before the line of contact reach them, so Russian isn’t capturing much in the way of civilians or population centres and instead mostly bombed out ruins. So no need to maintain heavy garrisons and no added logistical burden of needing to see to the needs of thousands of newly acquired civilians, some of whom may be spies or sleeper cells.
Russia’s strategy and endgame is brutally efficient and effective in its simplicity. Take the above, rinse and repeat until Ukraine runs out of territory or Ukrainians, whichever comes first they care not. But most likely that Ukraine will run out of warm bodies first and at some point the front will simply collapse as they just run out people to continue to man it.
None of the showy and largely symbolic long range Ukrainian strikes does anything material to change this loosing equation for them other then hasten their own ultimate end by wasting resources on such propaganda strikes that could be been of far better use supporting their troops on the line.
Russian artillery working on positions towards Alekseev Druzhkivka and East Zaporizhye. After taking out Konstantinovka, Russian forces are moving north to the next target. In Zaporizhye, the Ukrainian counterattack there appears nullified, with Russian forces pushing both to Pokrovske and the settlements northeast of Orekhiv.
One of the shelled positions appear to be a drone control point.
Despite Ukrainian claims, actual shoot down ratios by air defense was never great to begin with, and now it has reached a new low. A large truck terminal in Kyiv was also hit by drones.
After Gerans and Iskandars hit the Vizar machine plant in Kiev, you can hear a multitude of secondary explosions indicating munitions exploding.
A rocket had an abnormal launch from said plant and fell elsewhere causing damage.
A warehouse containing drones was struck by Gerans in the Kharkhiv region.
Huge fire in the New Postal terminal in Samara after being struck by Gerans. This in the Dnepropetrovsk region. These centers are said to be used as drone logistics.
One of the shelled positions appear to be a drone control point.
Despite Ukrainian claims, actual shoot down ratios by air defense was never great to begin with, and now it has reached a new low. A large truck terminal in Kyiv was also hit by drones.
After Gerans and Iskandars hit the Vizar machine plant in Kiev, you can hear a multitude of secondary explosions indicating munitions exploding.
A rocket had an abnormal launch from said plant and fell elsewhere causing damage.
A warehouse containing drones was struck by Gerans in the Kharkhiv region.
Huge fire in the New Postal terminal in Samara after being struck by Gerans. This in the Dnepropetrovsk region. These centers are said to be used as drone logistics.
There is no eternal war. Because Ukraine cannot sustain that, Russia could. Ukraine is entirely dependent on third party supplies. Unfortunately for them, manpower cannot be provided by third parties on the necessary scale. Ukraine simply lacks the people and resources for "eternal war", by comparison Russia can sustain such a drawn out, medium intensity warfare for several years from here on out.
The Russian endgame is kicking Ukraine out of Donbas and ensuring that Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea cannot be threatened by Kiev. Zaporizhia and Kherson will also have to be conceded by Ukraine. While in Sumy and Kharkiv the objective is to establish buffer zones in order to protect the Russian border. Last but not least, and that's generally linked to the points above, Russia wants the current Ukrainian government removed. If Ukraine has to legally cede the territories above to Russia, then the entire Ukrainian government will be disposed by the people and by parts of the Ukrainian armed forces. Now, Russia won't pick the next government of Ukraine, they know this. But they'll be in talks with the US about the matter and most likely a transitional government will be introduced that is supported by Washington. Zelensky and his ilk will leave the political stage for good.
That is the end game, and Russia has been consistently working towards it since essentially 2014. And they are now closer than they've been even in early 2022 to achieve their goal. Because the Ukrainian Army, Population, Industry and their Backers have never been as exhausted as they're now. Consequently Ukraine becomes more desperate, which is why they fire drones and missiles at Russian infrastructure (which take on average less than 3 months to get up and running again) rather than utilize them for battlefield operations. Which is why Russia has the tactical momentum right now, because they combine battlefield defining tactics and resources with heavy deep strikes.
And don't be mistaken, the escalation ladder still has many steps ahead. A friendly reminder that Russia so far has avoided targeting infrastructure related to medical infrastructure, waste management, water and food distribution. It took several steps of escalation on the part of Ukraine, most importantly attacks on Russian gas terminals, in order to prompt Russia to target the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on a meaningful scale. There is still much to do, many options most would prefer not to take.
Russia can sustain it but Ukraine cannot? Hahaha. Complete misreading of what is going on in this war.
Ukraine is not losing much men per day and can keep mobilizing for many more years to come. The biggest issue they face is the funding and weapons support from EU and they will continue to get that.
Russia on the hand, do not have any one to provide free money, China won't do it. They also lack the production capacity of the combined might of EU+US+Korea+Japan.
Russia much more likely to give up and break rather than Ukraine.
You think they want to start a full-on war which will descend into a nuclear war just for Ukraine?
Already lost 13500 men in bodybags after Konstantinovka. Ukraine itself is constantly complaining about critical manpower shortages which is why they are hiring lots of mercenaries. You can see as time goes by, they are unable to hold the tempo of their counteroffensives, which tend to peter out after a continuous barrage of Russian firepower, the latest failed ones being in Kupyansk, which is unable to secure the east bank of the Oskil, and to regain Huliailpolye in Zaporizhye. The Russians have gobbled more territory east of the Oskil River including Kurolivka, while in Zaporizhye, the Russians have rolled back towards Pokrovske in the Dnepropetrovsk.
There are also significant breakthroughs all along the Kharkhiv front and another strategic settlement, Liman, is also about to fall. North of it, lies a huge pocket with Ukrainian forces towards Borova.
Every counterattack is a column of vehicles getting swarmed by Russian drones and the personnel getting picked away by drones. The latest being failed attempts towards Konstantinovka and Pokrovske. It's the same thing the Ukrainians used to post about Russian columns early in the war, but the situation is reversed.
Another reason why Ukrainian counterattacks are failing is that why they are copying Russian infiltration tactics, they do not have the manpower to storm and mop up occupied positions, and do sap work in clearing mines and so on anymore. These groups just bypass the Russian positions so they can plant flags at the rear, then end up getting picked off by FPV drones.
The ratio of bodybag exchanges between Russia and Ukraine has been going like 1000 Ukrainian bags to 30-50 Russian bags, and Russia is still keeping a huge pile of them because Ukraine cannot afford to pay the families of the deceased as it will be in the cost of billions. But as Orthodox Christians, they believe the body is sacrosanct as it will rise from the dead when Christ returns to the world at the end of days, so the bodies must be properly interred at it's rightful resting place.
As for Ukraine's budget, it has gone down annually from 125 billion each year to the last package of 90 billion. US isn't funding anything, you think it was Trump that withhold aid but he was already under pressure by the Pentagon who was alarmed by the rapid depletion of inventory. The caucus among the DoD and many Republicans is that they should focus and keep reserves facing China. Korea and Japan both have immense economic problems to deal with that is a separate topic. In fact if the Japanese yen continue to lose value, already at historic 40 year lows, they have to raise interest rates, or sell off US Treasuries which will be catastrophic to the US, because China isn't buying more TBs but gradually unloading what they have.
Let me remind you that thing called Iran left many Middle East refineries in a damaged state and the Homuz is still throttling the flow of oil from the Middle East and this has a domino effect world wide. The throttling of Urea from the Middle East --- ME, China, and Russia---are the biggest producers of it--- will have a deep effect in the global food production chain and you are wondering why the food prices in the grocery are so high. That's pushing many economies, from Japan to SEA to the brink.
Unrelated.
Ukrainians were using Mi-8s to shoot down drones but another Mi-8 has crashed after a Geran raid. All crew was lost. RIP. Russians were arming Gerans with missiles lately. This coming after a MiG-29 was shot down and a Su-24M was lost, the two likely lost from long range BVRAAMs.
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None of these stats matters if Ukraine refuses to surrender unless Russia vacates Crimea. This is like Germany attacking the Soviet Union and destroying an Army. Nice job! but it doesn't end the war. You can't win without ending the war.
The earlier strategy of grinding Ukraine down made sense before long-range drones as Ukraine has unfavourable loss ratios, but now? Even if Russia takes over the "line of fortresses" it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow. Even if Russia takes Kharkov it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow.
You need to be able to end a war to actually win a war and all Ukraine has to do is not surrender now, do you get it? That's the problem.
It's like the Republic of China vs. Japan. Chiang is Zelensky! He just needs to wait!
And unlike in China, European arms shipments to Ukraine can't be stopped. Russia isn't able to do it, they haven't been able to do it for the past few years.
European arms production increases at a rate that cannot be matched by Russia anymore.
China's industry is not Russia's industry, do not conflate the two.
Russia needs to change their strategy.
They are just like the US in Afghanistan. Russia has no endgame plan. That is the crux of the issue.
The earlier strategy of grinding Ukraine down made sense before long-range drones as Ukraine has unfavourable loss ratios, but now? Even if Russia takes over the "line of fortresses" it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow. Even if Russia takes Kharkov it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow.
You need to be able to end a war to actually win a war and all Ukraine has to do is not surrender now, do you get it? That's the problem.
It's like the Republic of China vs. Japan. Chiang is Zelensky! He just needs to wait!
And unlike in China, European arms shipments to Ukraine can't be stopped. Russia isn't able to do it, they haven't been able to do it for the past few years.
European arms production increases at a rate that cannot be matched by Russia anymore.
China's industry is not Russia's industry, do not conflate the two.
Russia needs to change their strategy.
They are just like the US in Afghanistan. Russia has no endgame plan. That is the crux of the issue.