Yes there are all valid points and I agree. But this does not really affect the Ukraine-Russia War.
The main problem is that Russia doesn't have the guts to even hit actual production facilities in Europe. Production lines for drones in european countries such as Germans have started operating this year represent production which Russia will never be able to disrupt because they don't have guts to actually escalate to bombing NATO. Even the United States could not suppress Iran's drone launches, what makes you think Russia could stop Ukraine? Russia can't even gain air superiority over Ukraine.
Iran can get their drone parts from China. But China is blocking them for both the US and Europe. Doesn't mean that the US and Europe can get these parts from Taiwan and other places, but China is squeezing the supply of rare earth. Same thing used in drone motors are also used for EVs and hybrids and air conditioning and generators used to power AI data centers. You are going to have to decide which is your priority once the supply tightens and prices hit over thousands of percent.
Russia cannot gain air superiority over Ukraine, yet somehow, dozens and dozens of FABs and air to ground missiles are launched every day? How many planes have Ukraine shot down as per ratio of every successful mission raid the Russians conducted? The reported confirmed kills of Ukrainian fighter jets over Russian ones is a perfect zero since the start of the war.
Yes, Russia's ability to hit Ukrainian infrastructure with FPV drones seems like a huge advantage, but with Ukrainian drones now having reach deep into Russia and hit vital infrastructure like refineries in St. Petersburg or Moscow, that has been fully neutralised. If enything, Russia has many more valuable targets, and has much more to lose. Ukraine's geographical disadvantage in terms of reach has been neutralised using longer distance drones.
Drones cannot be transported as a whole. They are transported in kits and assembled. You hit the assembly areas. You hit the transports.
As a whole, Ukraine busy trying to hit Russian refineries, they are not hit hitting Russian drone production centers, which are totally spread out.
I agree that Europe's economy is experiencing inflation, but if we are bringing the economy into this conversation have you seen Russia's economy? it's 5.3%. You need to consider both sides. Russia's economy is doing much worse, and Europe actually has tools to fix their economy unlike Russia which already exhausted most of their resources in the first 2 years. Yes europe is losing industry to China but that is honestly a good thing for Europe because it reduces their energy demands, furthre reducing the effects of Russia's energy cutoff. Chinese outsourcing is something we talk about on this forum because it helps China, but it does nothing to help Russia in the war. Bringing up the state of the economy does not help Russia's case, it actually worsens it.
You saying Russia has ran out of natural resources is completely no reflection of reality. Russia has immense reserves not just in oil, but natural gas, agriculture, every sort of mineral and metal from nickel to gold to platinum to copper, steel, aluminum, lithium, titanium, rare Earth's, etc,. Russia is also a major world supplier of Urea that's vitally needed for fertilizer and explosive.
Ukraine itself is currently running at an 8-9 % inflation rate.
While the inflation rate of the EU is around 2.4% that is not true with different member states, which can pull the whole thing down like dominos.
And when has debt to gdp ratio stopped a war?
Debt destroyed the UK as a superpower.
Even if we are using that as a measure, just look at Germany and how much more fiscal room have to play with. Again costs of drones to Ukraine are miniscule compared to an actual conventional military and anti air defense, and they do hugely outsized damage to Russian Infrastructure. This balance has fundamentally changed.
You forget that Russia is mostly shooting down Ukrainian drones with automated gunfire from trucks and helicopters, MANPADS, cheap interceptor FPV drones and dedicated interceptor drones like Yelkas that are made cheap from foam and plastic.
Russian drones are doing the same to Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine depends on it's own gas deposits for energy. That infrastructure is being destroyed, denying Ukraine and Europe of cheap natural gas.
The rare-earths card is not a magical win all. And it isn't Russia's card. People seem to conflate Chinese power with Russian power. China is not stopping rare-earths shipments to europe for european/ukrainian drones.
They are actually. Because such drones can be used in a Taiwan reunification scenario against China. China has gone out of its way to increase the list of prohibited entities from buying rare earths, and arresting individuals.
Again, Russia does not have the ability to do that, stopping rare earths is at China's discretion. The rare earths argument is straight up not relevant in this conflict.
Read the above again.
Also Russia is another supplier of ore that can be used to refine rare earths. Russia in China's back means a clear path to Russian energy, minerals and yes, even agriculture. Agricultural export to China is big.
Trump trying to bottleneck China's energy supply from Venezuela to Iran has pushed China closer to Russian energy where they have a massive gas pipeline and is looking to build another.
