Chinese Economics Thread
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To be honest Japan has already done very well. They have been a developed industrialized power for almost a century already . They are already ultra developed for decades with a low birth rate for decades. I don’t think they have more space for growth, unlike developing countries like China, India, Indonesi, Malaysia etc which still have far more space to grow and catch up in terms of living standards/gdp per capital/overall development of the whole country.
In some ways Japans rise as Asias first developed industrialized country from a feudal backward agrarian country in the 1860s to an industrialized world power in just a few decades(40 years) was as much a miracle as China’s recent rapid rise. In some ways Japans also encouraged/inspired many Asian countries to prove Asian countries could also match the West in every aspect. It’s no wonder even the founder of modern China Sun Yat sen was very inspired by Japan which he cited several times to inspire his vision for developing a modern Chinese republic, same with Singapores founding fathers, South Korea etc .
To be honest, Japan has done spectacularly well, despite all their short comings, they are still among the most developed country on earth with some of the best living standards . Which is a good achievement especially considering they have almost zero natural resources unlike major powers like China, Russia, US etc and have a small land which is located in the worlds most tectonic earthquake prone landscape . Most countries in their situation would have remained isolated poor backwaters seeking western aid/development . So we have to look at things in a more broader way. Japans stagnation is not a surprise to me actually. I think many have been predicting it for a while. I guess the country’s traditional culture of authority and way of doing things coupled with an ageing population for decades doesn’t help things.
If Japan has done so well, and if they are fully developed then why are they stuck and actually going down to 30k gdp per capita when european countries and anglo countries are reaching 60k and US is at 90k?
What is Japan lacking compared to Europe to be this poor compared to those countries.
Japan has done exceptionally badly to go down from 5 trillion gdp to 4.5 trillion in 30 years when everyone else rose 2-3 times.
trade data from May and also the mining trading data. Huge jump for ICs in export and cars and many high tech stuff.
Because the Yen has devalued a lot compared to US dollar, much to the blame of the politicians ,in a PPP level the reality is about 51K per year, but income inequality has risen in the country too.
Its not about ppp. Its about not innovating and still being stuck in the 90s. Japan could not move up the value chain and lost whatever business they had in the 90s such as electronics dominance.
They totally destroyed their economy and now have nothing left. China will take every business they now have and the only way for them to survive is to take away business from Europe and US but they are not doing that. Hence losing their prosperity every year.
Japan will probably be the first rich country to move back into poverty.
lol you think that as China grows more developed she will be able to keep growing at the rate she is growing today? Let’s forget even that, do you think China can grow again the way she was growing when she was poorer like in the 2000s at 10% or over ? If so why is it not the case?
Do you know how fast South Korea was growing in the 70s to 90s compared to today? Why are they not growing as fast as back then?
Do you know how fast the US was growing in her heydays when she was rising as a world superpower? Why can’t they not grow at the same rate as before ?
of course when countries grow wealthier and more developed their rate and opportunities for growth reduces . A poor man has more space to grow and catch up if he implements the right policies than a rich man can maintain similar growth . It’s a natural process . So it’s not that surprising that developing countries have a higher rate of growth than developed rich countries .
Chinese leaders are now setting China’s growth rate at 5% which even achieving that is seen a major success (which it is actually), meanwhile just a decade or two ago that would have been seen as a huge failure or almost a recession by China . Different era different expectations . China growth rate will also slow even more at some point as she gets wealthier, and much more developed , she wills after growing at a rate similar to the west, Japan, Korea etc. Other poorer developing countries with more room for growth will obviously be having a higher growth rate this coming decades compared to China, that doesn’t means they are more successful than China .
As per the World Bank's annual Container Port Performance Index, released three days ago, Chinese ports took four of the top five spots. Number three went to Oman. They also took six of the top ten spots, with Morocco, Qatar, and Japan taking one spot each.
Don’t also forget that Japan has had a terrible ageing population issue for decades now , and all that entails for the mindset of the system/culture of the country. This also has a big impact on. This should also be a warning to other Asian countries who are also heading to this path of collapsing birth rates and rapidly ageing population. Japan is just ahead of the curve in facing this issue far earlier than others
They still have a pretty big industry that for some stupid reason their AAA clown stooge right wing politicians are desperate to destroy by antagonizing the closest largest market that they will ever have in favor of a far away colonial power.
And there were doing quite well, I think is one few first world countries that had ever managed to sustain a trade surplus with China. But was short lived.
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