2 wafers glue together face to face.
Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
- Start date
Actually I can't wrap my head around this fact. For last 8 years, I kept thinking how can China get to frontier logic (using the traditional pathway TSMC Samsung, Intel took). But they used proper definition of thinking outside the box to come up with a different path to leading edge.
Its very very similar to how China played the car industry, they realized they would not be able to catch up in ICE, so they took a entirely different route EV and succeed remarkably.
These next 5 years 2026-2030, we are gonna be witnessing the Golden Age of Chinese Semiconductor Industry, Stay Tuned Chinese Semiconductor Thread II
China currently manufacture one of the best diesel Engines globally. in-fact they exported more ICE cars up until recent Iranian war changed the dimension. Geely not only has its own ICE engines, but it is also a global powerhouse in combustion and hybrid powertrain technology. by the time Chinese EV industry leapfrog its competitors they did also become competitive in ICE tech.
apart from Huawei's demand SMIC will certainly retain its core business for Non-Huawei customers and there are also Huahong and Nexchip. they will most likely stick with traditional 2D chip fabrication. but yeah next 5 years will be the golden age of Chinese semiconductor industry. look how AMEC/NAURA launching new tools like dumplings.
But can they scale to proportions to take market share from TSMC and others?
People actually did put up inferior compute in Huawei products. You can say that it might not matter that much for an average user which is probably true, but for gaming or intense applications it does matter. Normally people won't compromise on even compute, but they did for indigenous innovation.
If Huawei was present in any other country like Korea or Japan, it couldn't survive because the domestic market is too small to merit creating the whole stack from scratch including the OS for example.
Technology (including semiconductors) needs market and a certain amount of scale to function, finance itself, and create an ecosystem. That was possible because of China's market size. I hope China maintains that market size.
True, market sie does matter as well, especially when it means trying to developed a new software operations system when the world already uses a mature widespread ubiquitous established operating system for years now, to justify such blare investment you need a huge market, without that Huawei wouldnt be sucesful. China's population size helps the country alot. Which is why the degrading collapsing birth rate is worrying for this coming decades . However, for the short term it's not a problem yet but long term if it keeps falling this way then yes it would be a huge issue decades from now
Nobody ever said China is taking a different path, there's nothing about logic folding or SSMB any other advanced techniques that precludes EUV, just as half of Chinese auto export are actually ICE and EVs didn't preclude China from dominating ICE export too.
The reason people jump to framing Chinese advances as a way to bypass EUV (or ICE) is because western companies lack the ability to innovate at China's rate, so invariably forces them to religiously guard the few tech advange they do have due simply to starting early. This religonous belief in singular wunderwaffle tech then create a negative feedback slowing their ability to innovate even more, as their marketing, their ideology and their revenue all become more and more dependant on a singular tech.
So like all industries, when China also break through that tech, they're left with nothing, not EVs and not ICEs either.
The next 5 years isn't going to be a golden age of Chinese semi, the next 5 years will simply be the inflection point of the skull chart that is the norm of every industry.
TSMC isn't a long term competitor. TSMC is Chinese in the long term, or you can even say medium to short term considering it's 2026.
in the long term TSMC is a part of Chinese semi supply chain and user of advanced Chinese lithography tech
Jingce Electronics' subsidiary has signed multiple sales contracts for semiconductor metrology equipment, totaling over 515 million yuan.
Shanghai Jingce Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd., signed multiple sales contracts with the same counterparty, with a total contract amount of RMB 515,905,342.
According to the announcement, Shanghai Jingce primarily sells semiconductor metrology equipment, including film thickness measurement products, OCD equipment, and electron beam equipment, to customers, mainly in advanced memory and related fields. Contracts become effective upon being sealed or signed by both parties. Due to the involvement of trade secrets in some contracts, the company has exempted the disclosure of specific customer information in accordance with relevant regulations. The announcement indicates that the customer has good credit, the ability to fulfill contracts, and manageable performance risks, and has no affiliation with the company.
Jingce Electronics stated that the signing of this batch of contracts further deepens the cooperative relationship between the company and the client, building upon their existing strong partnership. This reflects the client's high regard for the company's semiconductor quality inspection equipment and will help expand the company's brand influence and enhance its market competitiveness. If the contracts are successfully fulfilled, they are expected to have a positive impact on the company's operating results. Furthermore, the performance of the contracts will not affect the company's business independence, and the company's main business will not become dependent on the parties involved due to the performance of the contracts.
According to the announcement, Shanghai Jingce primarily sells semiconductor metrology equipment, including film thickness measurement products, OCD equipment, and electron beam equipment, to customers, mainly in advanced memory and related fields. Contracts become effective upon being sealed or signed by both parties. Due to the involvement of trade secrets in some contracts, the company has exempted the disclosure of specific customer information in accordance with relevant regulations. The announcement indicates that the customer has good credit, the ability to fulfill contracts, and manageable performance risks, and has no affiliation with the company.
Jingce Electronics stated that the signing of this batch of contracts further deepens the cooperative relationship between the company and the client, building upon their existing strong partnership. This reflects the client's high regard for the company's semiconductor quality inspection equipment and will help expand the company's brand influence and enhance its market competitiveness. If the contracts are successfully fulfilled, they are expected to have a positive impact on the company's operating results. Furthermore, the performance of the contracts will not affect the company's business independence, and the company's main business will not become dependent on the parties involved due to the performance of the contracts.
95% smartphones users don't care about CPU metrics, a big chunk don't even game at all <they use it for internet related stuff like social media>. The vast majority of games are not even that demanding on smartphones. Most smartphones users care about features, like how good the camera is, how responsive the screen is, how good their favorite apps run, how long the battery will last, how well built the thing is. And best of all the app store. And that could had damage Huawei in China more than the processor. Because as long the processor can match or surpass user feature expectations, most people won't care.
Huawei moved fast and make sure that if they couldn't compete on processing, they make sure to make their smartphone is feature packed as possible (nice camera, responsive screen and so on), that really well built and and have a nice app store. I think that save their smartphone business.