Chinese Economics Thread

[AndrewS]

[/QUOTE]

If China had Japan's GDP per capita, its total GDP will be 47 trillion dollars. It will blow past everyone and reach almost US + EU level.

Can you imagine how enormous the power China will have?

Moreover, what kind economic crisis will countries like Japan and US face due to China taking away their marketshare if China is to reach that level of total GDP?

Its just not about the quality of life. China will have enormous power over the world if they reach that level of GDP.

Japan is a low bar. It's at $60K compared to $100K per capita for the US or Taiwan

With China at $100K, that would mean a GDP of $140 Trillion

 

[TK3600]

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I don't think anyone's posted this yet, but Taiwan's GDP grew 13.7% in Q1 this year, and their GDP per capita is well ahead of both SK and Japan now. This is pretty insane to say the least and I honestly don't see any potential paths to peaceful reunification with this kind of economic growth. Even wanwanese people on BiliBili, who are probably the most mainland-friendly group of people on the island, are pretty damn smug about their economy and job prospects, so while their growth is obviously pretty unevenly distributed, they are growing at 2000s mainland rates (double digits!) which masks any problems with fair distributions of wealth.

I remember back in 2018-ish, there are people on Zhihu etc. claiming that peaceful reunification is possible if their economy stagnates, but with the way things are going, even if their economy hit a brick wall and the AI bubble completely bursts tomorrow like Japan's did in the 90s, I still don't see how their mindset can change to be open to PR. Even Japan, after three decades of economic decline, is still able to maintain a relatively high QoL and even an increasingly hostile stance towards China. I'm pretty confident that the same will happen to Taiwan, with a long denial phase and a longer anger phase, even if their AI-based economy crashes tomorrow, which is already a highly unlikely event in the next few years to say the least.

idk if anyone is a proponent of peaceful reunification here (as in believing that PR is a possible and likely path, not a unilateralist that is against the use of force unless provoked by principle), but I'd love to hear any arguments for PR being likely or even possible at this point (before the set timeline of 2049, otherwise we'd all be dead by then anyways like Keynes said).

How many of these are stock value of TSMC and its related industry? The island is a specialist in semi conductor and we are in a funny AI boom. It could easily fall 10% GDP a year if AI is in a bust cycle, and then rise again once that is over.

 

[DriedDragonfruit]

Japan today still does have significantly higher average wages and living standards than China, so there is a basis to the Japanese attitude today. But that should change in the future.

Remember that China is on track to be the world leader in terms of developing and also adopting technology.
That should translate into the highest productivity levels and as per the studies, it should also result in the highest wages and therefore living standards in the world. But this will take at least another 15 years.

Given that China will likely displace Taiwan's semiconductor industry in the future, Taiwanese wages and living standards should stagnate, whilst China passes Taiwan (and also Japan and South Korea)

If we also see a future where the US withdraws from the world, then where does that leave Taiwan?

I mean yes, but as I said, isn't this very much a "in the long term" thing, and in Keynes' words, we'd all be dead by then. I simply don't see peaceful reunification as a viable option anymore if reunification is to be achieved before the 2049 timeline. After all, its only 23 years away. Look how deep the DPP/pro-independence mindset has been engrained into their minds in the past 23 years, even if the exact same level of brainwashing in the opposite direction happens tomorrow, it'd only return to 2003 levels, which was still quite pro-independence. But again, I'm not sure if you are actually arguing that peaceful reunificaiton is possible or likely, because I certainly don't see how it can still be likely before 2049.

 

[DriedDragonfruit]

Dude , in such high stakes geo political issues , you should look at things from a long term perspective in 10 to 20 to 30 year . We don’t even know what will happen next year , so it’s silly to be worried because of good rate of growth In Taiwan. Plus it’s als because of the explosion of AI chips which needs foundry where Taiwan is by far the worlds leader .

Yes, which is why I said I don't see how peaceful reunification can be achieved by the 2049 timeline, which is actually less than 30 years away. If you're arguing that PR is possible in 50 years, then sure? But I think half of the members on this forum won't get to see that day, so it's not really relevant for us to discuss anymore. What I'm essentially saying is that at this point, I think AR is the only possible path if reunification is to be achieved by 2049.

 

[Wrought]

I mean yes, but as I said, isn't this very much a "in the long term" thing, and in Keynes' words, we'd all be dead by then. I simply don't see peaceful reunification as a viable option anymore if reunification is to be achieved before the 2049 timeline. After all, its only 23 years away. Look how deep the DPP/pro-independence mindset has been engrained into their minds in the past 23 years, even if the exact same level of brainwashing in the opposite direction happens tomorrow, it'd only return to 2003 levels, which was still quite pro-independence. But again, I'm not sure if you are actually arguing that peaceful reunificaiton is possible or likely, because I certainly don't see how it can still be likely before 2049.

It's really quite simple:

1. Build up overwhelming military superiority.

2. In 2049, give the option to join or die.

3. Join = peaceful reunification.

Will people choose to die instead of join? Maybe, maybe not. But you can't simply dismiss the desire to live as impossible. It's certainly possible.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Yes, which is why I said I don't see how peaceful reunification can be achieved by the 2049 timeline, which is actually less than 30 years away. If you're arguing that PR is possible in 50 years, then sure? But I think half of the members on this forum won't get to see that day, so it's not really relevant for us to discuss anymore. What I'm essentially saying is that at this point, I think AR is the only possible path if reunification is to be achieved by 2049.

Exactly what @Wrought said. Why do you think that peaceful reintegration means they have to have an economy that's so bad, people are miserable enough to give up on everything? Everything hinges on the military balance in Asia; if China makes it look unplausible that the US would even dare go to war over the issue due to China's overwhelming advantage, the ultimatum for reunification will be met. If their economy is doing poorly, then it will be met because they seek change; if it is doing well, then it will be met because they don't want to go from doing well to being dead. If the PLA is unable to compete against a dominant US military, then no matter how poor, how shit the ROC's economy is, they will still resist.

 

[abenomics12345]

How many of these are stock value of TSMC and its related industry? The island is a specialist in semi conductor and we are in a funny AI boom. It could easily fall 10% GDP a year if AI is in a bust cycle, and then rise again once that is over.

Stock price movement is not captured in GDP calculation. The product exports from TSMC/UMC/Mediatek etc however, are part of NX and definitely count towards it.

 

[fishrubber99]

Exactly what @Wrought said. Why do you think that peaceful reintegration means they have to have an economy that's so bad, people are miserable enough to give up on everything? Everything hinges on the military balance in Asia; if China makes it look unplausible that the US would even dare go to war over the issue due to China's overwhelming advantage, the ultimatum for reunification will be met. If their economy is doing poorly, then it will be met because they seek change; if it is doing well, then it will be met because they don't want to go from doing well to being dead. If the PLA is unable to compete against a dominant US military, then no matter how poor, how shit the ROC's economy is, they will still resist.

I also want to add that the difference between mainland Chinese GDP per capita and Hong Kong GDP per capita in 1997 was much greater than the difference between current Taiwan GDP per capita and mainland Chinese GDP per capita. It's also an issue in Taiwan where most of the economic growth is being concentrated in only a few sectors of its economy that are tied to the AI boom. So I don't think on paper per capita economic size is a significant factor here.

 

[jli88]

Is this the impact of the war in Iran? The March data shows a clear deterioration. After a very strong performance in Jan-Feb, key indicators took a sharp downturn in March.

• Exports: Growth decelerated from 21.8% in Jan-Feb to 2.5% in March.
• Imports: Surged 27.8% in March due to skyrocketing energy costs.
• Industrial Production: Slowed to 5.7% in March, down from 7.0% in Jan-Feb.
• Retail Sales: Weakened to 1.7% from 2.8% in Jan-Feb, with auto sales specifically plunging 11.8%.

Q1 GDP landed at 5%, but the March figures alone show a significant slump. Without this downturn in March, Q1 GDP would have achieved over 6% growth. If this trend persists, the outlook for Q2 is concerning.

Retail sales are too weak. When is the stimulus bazooka coming please?

If an economy has extremely low inflation (or deflation), retail sales lagging, and youth unemployment issues. A fiscal and monetary stimulus seems to be a right remedy for the situation. Can alleviate all the issues.

 

[AndrewS]

why would the party want real estate to collapse , i think they want property to appreciate in line with the inflation so that no one makes a loss on their home purchase and let equities be the instrument of wealth preservation and growth

Property prices shouldn't even match inflation.
Just stable property prices or a slight decline without be better.

That will improve property affordability faster as wages increase over the years.

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It also prevents negative equity situations so people can still sell and move elsewhere if they need to.

The existing homeowners won't see their own properties increase in price, but if/when they upsize or downsize, their next property would be more affordable.