Chinese Economics Thread

[Wrought]

Q1 growth came in quite strong at 5%, despite all the chaos in the Middle East. A good start to the year, considering the annual target is 4.5%.

• Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter.
• Urban fixed-asset investment climbed 1.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier.
• China’s retail sales grew 1.7% in March from a year earlier. Industrial output expanded 5.7%.
• The urban survey-based unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, picking up from 5.3% in February.

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[abenomics12345]

Q1 growth came in quite strong at 5%, despite all the chaos in the Middle East. A good start to the year, considering the annual target is 4.5%.

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will be likely a year where real gdp is lower end of the 4.5 to 5 but nominal gdp is >5. With RMB strengthening, expect Chinese GDP in USD terms to grow HSD% this year.

 

[TOKYO DRIFT ABC]

Is this the impact of the war in Iran? The March data shows a clear deterioration. After a very strong performance in Jan-Feb, key indicators took a sharp downturn in March.

• Exports: Growth decelerated from 21.8% in Jan-Feb to 2.5% in March.
• Imports: Surged 27.8% in March due to skyrocketing energy costs.
• Industrial Production: Slowed to 5.7% in March, down from 7.0% in Jan-Feb.
• Retail Sales: Weakened to 1.7% from 2.8% in Jan-Feb, with auto sales specifically plunging 11.8%.

Q1 GDP landed at 5%, but the March figures alone show a significant slump. Without this downturn in March, Q1 GDP would have achieved over 6% growth. If this trend persists, the outlook for Q2 is concerning.

 

[bebops]

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more on this topic



not too surprising here tbh. My sense is that they need to do more to discourage diesel and gasoline usage and encourage EV purchases. so this can be done in a way that doesn't hurt the chemical industry.

Worst comes to worst, China could go back to using coal.

I've noticed there is a thing called clean coal, which doesn't emit as much pollution and also enhance fuel quality. It is expensive so you don't see it go mainstream. I am not sure if this is only apply to the US because everything is more expensive. Maybe China can make this process more cheaper and make it go main stream with it.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Worst comes to worst, China could go back to using coal.

I've noticed there is a thing called clean coal, which doesn't emit as much pollution and also enhance fuel quality. It is expensive so you don't see it go mainstream. I am not sure if this is only apply to the US because everything is more expensive. Maybe China can make this process more cheaper and make it go main stream with it.

LMFAO not even close to needing to think about that. Russia says it can make it up and shortages. A surge of Iranian ships are on the seas to China due in May so we haven't even began to feel anything yet and we won't for at least a few more weeks. We have over a billion barrels reserve. And we haven't even used the rare earth card to force the US yet because they're notorious for poor stamina under Trump.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Is this the impact of the war in Iran? The March data shows a clear deterioration. After a very strong performance in Jan-Feb, key indicators took a sharp downturn in March.

• Exports: Growth decelerated from 21.8% in Jan-Feb to 2.5% in March.
• Imports: Surged 27.8% in March due to skyrocketing energy costs.
• Industrial Production: Slowed to 5.7% in March, down from 7.0% in Jan-Feb.
• Retail Sales: Weakened to 1.7% from 2.8% in Jan-Feb, with auto sales specifically plunging 11.8%.

Q1 GDP landed at 5%, but the March figures alone show a significant slump. Without this downturn in March, Q1 GDP would have achieved over 6% growth. If this trend persists, the outlook for Q2 is concerning.

Retail sales is choking already for few years, but services consumption was still growing in line with GDP. I dont know why NBS doesn't publish services monthly data. It's pure shitshow by them, now people only cite retail sales for China consumption and it's bad cause it's growth is really weak. It has bad effect on the sentiment.

 

[henrik]

Is this the impact of the war in Iran? The March data shows a clear deterioration. After a very strong performance in Jan-Feb, key indicators took a sharp downturn in March.

• Exports: Growth decelerated from 21.8% in Jan-Feb to 2.5% in March.
• Imports: Surged 27.8% in March due to skyrocketing energy costs.
• Industrial Production: Slowed to 5.7% in March, down from 7.0% in Jan-Feb.
• Retail Sales: Weakened to 1.7% from 2.8% in Jan-Feb, with auto sales specifically plunging 11.8%.

Q1 GDP landed at 5%, but the March figures alone show a significant slump. Without this downturn in March, Q1 GDP would have achieved over 6% growth. If this trend persists, the outlook for Q2 is concerning.

This is better than most other countries.

 

[fishrubber99]

Retail sales is choking already for few years, but services consumption was still growing in line with GDP. I dont know why NBS doesn't publish services monthly data. It's pure shitshow by them, now people only cite retail sales for China consumption and it's bad cause it's growth is really weak. It has bad effect on the sentiment.

They do publish service sector growth quarterly (though as far as I know, it's a relatively recent series that isn't adjusted for inflation). You can see it here in retail sales of services. It grew 5.5% without inflation adjustment for Q1 2026.

"In the first quarter, the retail sales of services went up by 5.5 percent year on year"

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Of course certain outlets don't report on this series for their own editorial reasons.

 

[TOKYO DRIFT ABC]

Retail sales is choking already for few years, but services consumption was still growing in line with GDP. I dont know why NBS doesn't publish services monthly data. It's pure shitshow by them, now people only cite retail sales for China consumption and it's bad cause it's growth is really weak. It has bad effect on the sentiment.

I get the whole service consumption argument, but since the NBS doesn't even put out the actual figures (unless I missed something), I'm not sure if they're even serious about this metric. I know some people just ignore services, but that's no reason to downplay how stuck retail is.

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2044442824616071262