2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
In all honesty, I don't think the US's strategic goals have remained static. For the US, the GCC and Iran blowing each other up and permanently crippling the energy extraction industry of the region may be sufficient.
GCC are US allies, I have no idea why US wants to destroy their own allies oil/gas infrastructure. How does that benefit the US to have weakened allies?
The US would immediately become the ones who decide if nations can keep the lights on. Before you say that other countries would look for alternatives, you have to consider if their stockpiles will last long enough to make the transition. Until alternatives do come online, the US has coercive dominance.
What does this have to do with denuclearizationa and regime change? When you have no strategic goals, you can spin anything into a win.
 

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
GCC are US allies, I have no idea why US wants to destroy their own allies oil/gas infrastructure. How does that benefit the US to have weakened allies?

What does this have to do with denuclearization? When you have no strategic goals, you can spin anything into a win. US as a gatekeepers of oil/gas does nothing toward reducing the risk of Iranian nuclear weapons program or regime change.
I don't think the US gives a shit about allies not named Israel.

I'm also not convinced preventing Iran from building the bomb was the strategic goal in the first place. I'm willing to put money on it as another Colin Powell WMD bullshit justification moment.
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
If anything, I would be far more concerned about the already reported 30 to 50 percent depletion of key US stockpiles globally, interceptors, and standoff munitions, which even American media have acknowledged from multiple sources.
..which leads me to think that the US, with all it's assets surrounding Iran, wants to attempt complete air superiority over Iran using it's navy so that it can use it's not-so-depleted dumb bombs. That also means incurring a lot of losses.
 

burritocannon

Junior Member
Registered Member
GCC are US allies, I have no idea why US wants to destroy their own allies oil/gas infrastructure. How does that benefit the US to have weakened allies?
you put a lot of stock in the assumption of good faith, that what we call "allies" are treated in the most ideal dictionary sense. but the world is not run by a dictionary. now we have enough hindsight to see that the narrative of a 'federation of equals' itself is, and always was, a load of horseshit. it has only ever been used as the appeal to bring in the american trojan horse that deploys disarmament and dependency. europe? disarmed and vassalized. japan? its growth arrested and vassalized.

we can only call taking words at face value, "guillible".

torpedoing world energy and settling for just being the king of the rubbleheap can be seen as a 'reset' style of fighting where they can leverage the fact they are operating under fewer constraints (western hemisphere oil) to their advantage. remember, in any contest, if you have any marginal rate advantage over the opposition then it's just a matter of time that you come out ahead.
we should also take a more long term view regarding the strategy. it should be obvious at the gut check level that china is the real target. i expect us strategists view the reduction in energy availability to china not as a knock-out blow but rather an incremental build-up in resistance to their growth. the us will continue to pursue layering on more and more of these incremental rate reductions because again, maintaining supremacy only requires you to stay marginally faster than the guy behind you.

also just anecdotal observation, i think reset fighting is more native to the western character compared to the east. wrestling, grappling and taking you down into the mud with them is much more favored in western martial history, whereas eastern traditions favor minimizing contact through range and skirmish. even in eastern grappling such as judo, ending up on the ground is seen as something to be avoided. this difference in philosophy may be one of the underlying causes of mutual inscrutability. to the easterner, western expenditure of resources is abhorrently wasteful in their willingness to hurt themselves in order to hurt their opponent. to the westerner, the easterner's prioritization of preserving their resources and capital is despicable as misapplication of power.

so i do not think america has actually gone off its rockers; i think they would love everyone to think they have. feigning insanity is a classic tactic that should be familiar to eastern history. i would respect it.

i think the us is very much interested in protracting the destabilization of the middle east as it is the link between china and the rest of eurasia. destabilization will allow it to continue working around the chessboard; iran doesnt have to be fully defeated for it to lose its ability to intervene against subversive "democratization" actions in tajik/uzbek/kazakh areas next; afghanistan may also reprise its inflammatory role in the region, this time as a wedge to stress the china-pakistan relationship.
 
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Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
you put a lot of stock in the assumption of good faith, that what we call "allies" are treated in the most ideal dictionary sense. but the world is not run by a dictionary. now we have enough hindsight to see that the narrative of a 'federation of equals' itself is, and always was, a load of horseshit. it has only ever been used as the appeal to bring in the american trojan horse that deploys disarmament and dependency. europe? disarmed and vassalized. japan? its growth arrested and vassalized.

we can only call taking words at face value, "guillible".

torpedoing world energy and settling for just being the king of the rubbleheap can be seen as a 'reset' style of fighting where they can leverage the fact they are operating under fewer constraints (western hemisphere oil) to their advantage. remember, in any contest, if you have any marginal rate advantage over the opposition then it's just a matter of time that you come out ahead.
we should also take a more long term view regarding the strategy. it should be obvious at the gut check level that china is the real target. i expect us strategists view the reduction in energy availability to china not as a knock-out blow but rather an incremental build-up in resistance to their growth. the us will continue to pursue layering on more and more of these incremental rate reductions because again, maintaining supremacy only requires you to stay marginally faster than the guy behind you.

also just anecdotal observation, i think reset fighting is more native to the western character compared to the east. wrestling, grappling and taking you down into the mud with them is much more favored in western martial history, whereas eastern traditions favor minimizing contact through range and skirmish. even in eastern grappling such as judo, ending up on the ground is seen as something to be avoided. this difference in philosophy may be one of the underlying causes of mutual inscrutability. to the easterner, western expenditure of resources is abhorrently wasteful in their willingness to hurt themselves in order to hurt their opponent. to the westerner, the easterner's prioritization of preserving their resources and capital is despicable as misapplication of power.

so i do not think america has actually gone off its rockers; i think they would love everyone to think they have. feigning insanity is a classic tactic that should be familiar to eastern history. i would respect it.

i think the us is very much interested in protracting the destabilization of the middle east as it is the link between china and the rest of eurasia. destabilization will allow it to continue working around the chessboard; iran doesnt have to be fully defeated for it to lose its ability to intervene against subversive "democratization" actions in tajik/uzbek/kazakh areas next; afghanistan may also reprise its inflammatory role in the region, this time as a wedge to stress the china-pakistan relationship.
I can't take this seriously because not a single word about 'denuclearization' anywhere. US involvement is primarily because of protecting Israel's nuclear and military hegemony in Middle East, but not a single word about nuclear weapons or Israel anywhere. It's loosely about "Vassals", "Control", and "China", because they could have started this war in 2018 during Trade War height if it was all about China. Why didn't they start this Iran war to control global oil in 2018 if it's really about China then and not Iranian nukes?
 

mack8

Senior Member
I knows it's just a DCS reenactment, but i'm just in awe how the iranian F-5 pilot managed to pull off the attack on the american base in Kuwait. Among other things it shows that no defence is 100% effective despite the hype surrounding the US military and it's systems, further reinforcing the obvious failure of the american/israeli defences to stop iranian missiles and drones.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Broski, be realistic.

Between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who do you think has DF-21s? China would drop Iran for the GCC in a heartbeat if it had to choose between the two. In fact, China already threw Iran under the bus in 2019.


I certainly hope so. Iran's offensive strike frequency was already declining before the ceasefire.
China doesn't have to choose. Iran revealed the true state of affairs: Iran has the power in the Persian Gulf. You can work with it and prosper or work against it and suffer.

China in the past thought GCC was strong because they had money. Then GCC got punched in the face and couldn't defend themselves.

The strategy can change. It would be stupid to hold onto a shit strategy.
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
I knows it's just a DCS reenactment, but i'm just in awe how the iranian F-5 pilot managed to pull off the attack on the american base in Kuwait. Among other things it shows that no defence is 100% effective despite the hype surrounding the US military and it's systems, further reinforcing the obvious failure of the american/israeli defences to stop iranian missiles and drones.
US and Israeli operate a lot on hype and propaganda, similar to how the Mongols did - that they cannot be defeated. Israel got it's ass whooped by Egypt in 1973, US we all know across the world many times, just as the Mongols did by the Mamluke Turks who ruled India and Egypt.
 
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