Peter zeihan aka white Gordon Chang
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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China Electricity Use Jan-Feb 2026 (YoY):-
manufacturing +6.4%
high-tech manufacturing +10.6%
datacenters +46%
EV charging +55%
manufacturing +6.4%
high-tech manufacturing +10.6%
datacenters +46%
EV charging +55%
China's urea export control policies. I'm not sure where the shortage is, I assume it's in the phosphate fertilizers. But Urea fertilizers really shouldn't be dropping given the reliance on coal for urea.
I don't understand the shortage of phosphate fertilisers. Only 20% of sulfuric acid comes from imported sulfur, of which 50% comes from the Middle East.
In terms of acid production methods, in 2024, sulfuric acid production capacity was 61.39 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, accounting for 43.66% of the total capacity; sulfuric acid production capacity from smelting flue gas (smelting acid) was 52.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, accounting for 37.5% of the total capacity; sulfuric acid production capacity from pyrite was 24.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, accounting for 17.33% of the total capacity; and other acid production capacity was 2.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.4%, accounting for 1.51% of the total capacity.
China's Ministry of Commerce reveals 70,392 foreign-invested enterprises were newly established nationwide in 2025, up 19.1% YoY.
This momentum has carried into 2026, with 5,306 new foreign-funded firms set up in January alone, up 25.5% YoY. Growth was particularly pronounced in high-tech sectors, as the actual foreign capital used in R&D and design services skyrocketed 175.1% in the first month of 2026 compared with a year earlier.
This momentum has carried into 2026, with 5,306 new foreign-funded firms set up in January alone, up 25.5% YoY. Growth was particularly pronounced in high-tech sectors, as the actual foreign capital used in R&D and design services skyrocketed 175.1% in the first month of 2026 compared with a year earlier.
“Compared with China, service prices in other countries are much higher, which is why their consumption ratios are substantially higher than China’s. Once these factors are excluded, China’s consumption ratio is indeed somewhat lower, but the gap may in fact not be very large.”
“Economic growth is investment-driven and rests on savings.”
These quoted remarks by Yu Yongding are correct. It’s the Western economists (most are anti-China) like Michael Pettis and Stephen Roach that have been pushing the ‘China doesn’t consume enough’ or ‘China must move away from investment and export growth’ for years. Sadly now Chinese economists and most importantly the CPC have bought into this Western narrative and going for ‘consumption-led growth’.
As Yu Yongding said, there is no such thing as ‘consumption-led growth’. British economist John Ross has argued this point many times in his blogs. China’s growth rate has decreased over the years because investment level has decreased. This is the equivalent of replacing manufacturing with a service economy.
Services are extremely cheap in China so you don’t add as much $ value in China as you would in the US where services are expensive. Basically China can achieve the same level of service as that of the US for a mere fraction of the cost. Therefore it doesn’t add as much GDP service consumption in China as it would in the US. You look at all goods consumption, China is leading in pretty much every category. US healthcare consumption is huge because it’s so expensive which makes the bulk of its consumption.
Follow the advice of Yu Yongding and not Pettis and Roach.