2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[gwel]

I study engineering, not economics

Quick crash course from a fellow engineer, then.

Country / Region	GDP (Gross Domestic Product)	MVA (Manufacturing Value Added)	DMC (Domestic Material Consumption)	Ratio: $ / Ton
China	$19.4 Trillion	$6.21 Trillion	~35.0 Billion Tonnes	~$550
USA	$30.6 Trillion	$2.91 Trillion	~6.5 Billion Tonnes	~$4,700
EU (Total)	$20.5 Trillion	$3.12 Trillion	~5.8 Billion Tonnes	~$3,500
Russia	$2.54 Trillion	$0.38 Trillion	~4.2 Billion Tonnes	~$600
UK	$3.96 Trillion	$0.35 Trillion	~0.6 Billion Tonnes	~$6,600
Iran	$0.36 Trillion	$0.06 Trillion	~0.8 Billion Tonnes	~$450

Spot the service economy bubbles? See the value of GDP when it comes to actual physical goods production?

Industrial challenges are challenges of time, money and bi or multilateral agreements.

As someone who specialised in manufacturing engineering, my biggest headache is always people.
Mentality, intelligence, organisational inertia, bureaucracy. Actual engineering problems are usually the smallest worry.

You left that factor out entirely. Outside of a few rare exceptions like Elon's companies most prominently, manufacturing in the US is a downwards trend, mostly because society has taken a shape where efficient manufacturing gets harder and harder due to social factors.
The physics of engineering is the same on different continents ... yet if you compare the throughput, it is vastly different.

I am not saying the US cannot make enough bombs. I think they actually have a decent stockpile, and they could ramp production.
I think the delivery chain will strain before they run out of stuff to drop.

But honestly do not take economic advice from me. Economics largely makes no sense to me.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Is hard for US to disengage if the strait is unopened and gulf states cant get food and later water. US bases in the region are being drone striked nonstop. The 5th fleet literally lost their hq is hilariously bad but just ignored by western medua

On domestic front, midterm election is coming, extremely divided population, low war support and epstein doc.


This is vietnam war on speedrun.
The pedos are stuck and are effed
Is really double or nothing and time to invade with boots. Maga thinks it will just be easy as gulf war except this time they dont have months of preparation

I think Vietnam will fall far short to the disaster that ground invasion could be. A far bigger more difficult country than anything that US has fought since WW2. And given the lack of planning of this clown stooges I think this could get as ugly as Germany mistakes in the Soviet Union or something like that.

Let see what happens.

 

[EmoBirb]

Thanks for the info, my mistake

No need to apologize

 

[tokenanalyst]

Not counting that the moral in the US army is probably very low now, again let see what happens.

 

[gwel]

U.S. intelligence is meaningless and irrelevant here. Iran could even give them a map of all the drone and military facilities if they would like. Won’t change anything.

I actually struggle to make sense of this.

US ISR used to be top notch, and with all the AI hype and Palantir masturbation, I would have thought that they track every civilian truck and train custom AI models to figure out exactly the material flow of all of irans imports, and deduce every single manufacturing place etc and basically know what is going on in those caves and bunkers.

But it seems they have no idea what to shoot at? Did Iran do that good a job, or should I follow Michael Burry's lead and short Palantir stock?
On the other hand Iran knew surprisingly well where to hit back at the US.

Surely they must at least know where the high value high capability Iranian missiles are which seem to penetrate the AD so effortlessly? Surely the US has enough munitions to take at least those out?
Or did the Iranians do such a good job hiding them under enough mountains that this requires B-2s with bunker busters and the US is actually limited in sortie generation for that?

 

[neutralobserver]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2029995139171598751

.

 

[jiajia99]

Is hard for US to disengage if the strait is unopened and gulf states cant get food and later water. US bases in the region are being drone striked nonstop. The 5th fleet literally lost their hq is hilariously bad but just ignored by western medua

On domestic front, midterm election is coming, extremely divided population, low war support and epstein doc.


This is vietnam war on speedrun.
The pedos are stuck and are effed
Is really double or nothing and time to invade with boots. Maga thinks it will just be easy as gulf war except this time they dont have months of preparation

If the gulf cannot get protection and food, the USA members will eventually be hunted down and kicked out of the Middle East by force. Without any defending force worth a damn or any other resources, the only thing the people of the region will feel is hatred for the west that its own suck up leaders will not be able to blunt out any time soon.

Also if those elites in The gulf states run away, where will they run given most places have energy shortages thanks to them and any one remaining in Those countries will align with Iran to survive and I reckon in a few weeks, Israel will become a crippled nation of no value to anyone and then the west will eventually have to make a choice between sucking Americas dick or bend over to whoever is in control of the Middle East (most likely Iran if they survive and survive they will) if they want energy.

Seriously, Trump is obliterating the entire USA presence in the Middle East thanks to his own hubris and with this, his usefulness to what ever powers that be (Trump is harming their bottom line and does anyone notice how sick he is becoming) will eventually come to an end and even Netanyahu isn’t likely to survive this kind of screw up of this magnitude that his survival will eventually be cut short given that his usefulness in the world is based on how well he can keep Israel a float which give or take a week or two will resemble a failed state which I can guarantee would be suicide for anyone to fund its recovery.

I know my father said that Jews probably have enough money to fund its own revival but I rebutted that should the USA dollar lose most of its value, they cannot fund squat. While the Jews have massive amount of US dollar and other western based funds as reserves over seas, would the gulf states want to accept those funds anymore given how badly the west have failed them, the petrol dollar will die soon and with it the Jewish grip on the world will be called into question and the Mandate of Heaven will fully pass onto the other giant super power that are not lead by idiots

 

[gwel]

This but what if Trump decide to use Bush blitskrieg style strategy in 2001 against Iran. Deploy 400000 troops both ground and air assault simultaneously and reach total victory in mere a month with only 1000 casualties?

That's not really an option anymore. It took the US months of build-up in Saudi Arabia. I still remember the shots of rows and rows of pallets of ammunition, food and other goods lined up in the desert, the endless rows of C-17 and C-5.
The world was in awe of the logistical capabilities of the US.
Iraq did not dare to launch a scud at that build-up, and the US was (unwarranted, but still) confident patriot would save them from it.
Iran will have sat pictures of the build-up on the daily, and they will launch missiles at it.

The US would suffer severe casualties because they lack the ability to protect such a build-up.

Also the US fleets have shrank significantly, they can't field a gulf war sized fleet of aircraft anymore. The USAF is at a historical low in terms of numbers.
People talked about this recent build-up being big, but it is a fraction of the previous gulf wars.

 

[FriedButter]

Escalation it is, I guess

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2029976484346220588

I propose to Secretary of War, Putrid Huckleberry that Operation Tehran Garden should proceed. Composed of hundreds of transports, fighters, and tanker aircrafts to drop several thousand paratroopers into the heart of Tehran.

 

[AETHER]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030022944919794011

The question is how fast they can ramp up production