PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[ougoah]

The video shows a hit and the person taking the video narrates it by saying there was a ship there, kept referring to it as American carrier of course he has mistaken some other form of ship as carrier. Supply ship it is then. I'm calling it warship because the narrator used the term carrier when it may be some other military related ship, hence warship.

Missed the ship? The thing was billowing in smoke and debris from a ballistic missile hit.

If somehow has the video, please post a link. Definitely not a miss. Thing was up in smokes for the entire video.

 

[ougoah]

You mean a target ship tied pier side? That allegedly they also missed as well.

Surprise surprise Iran doesn't have the ability to hit moving ships like we've all suspected was bluster from Iran when they talked about AShBM. Tied up or not, US air defences failing everywhere. More than just a handful of examples. Perception of invincibility gone. The thing that is most valuable to US and NAFO fanboys everywhere who perform full time work online to keep up this false air of US invincibility.

 

[Mmmeeeto]

US AD have failed repeatedly against even the third rate 1980s SCUD. They say they corrected the clock issue from the original Patriot that achieved a whopping <10% success rate against SCUDs but Iran doesn't use SCUDs.

US AD has no chance intercepting a third rate (by China's PLARF standards) DF-15 let alone a real HGV like DF-17.

You're also forgetting China would perform saturation attacks against US. In this regard, it is worth shooting less capable and older missiles not in an attempt to deplete AD (or the actual target if not the AD site) but to overwhelm its radar tracking and operators. For every missile Iran is capable of throwing, China is capable of throwing 100. It's fair to say China outproduces just about anything you care to think of compared to Iran by more than a magnitude of 2. Let's take something like cars or ships over 500 tonnes. China has build more than 100 times that of Iran with ease. For most products it's a magnitude of 3 or 4 at least. Google what magnitude actually means if you don't know and if you think Iran has 500 ballistic missiles stockpiled, you best believe China would have 50,000 if it is marching to war against the US. Difference is USA has no chance of air superiority even within the first island chain, let along over China. The factories will be running 24/7 and if they are hit, American factories aren't intact either. DF-5, FOBS, DF-31, DF-41, DF-45/51, CJ-1000, JL-1 ALBM, JL-2 SLBM, JL-3 SLBM, YJ-20, YJ-19, YJ-17 will ensure no American MIC is left intact.

US stands zero chance in this region against China if it's getting its ships obliterated with ease by Iran within just 18 hours of war. Iran has managed to take out several US airbases protected by multilayered integrated American air defences. Take out a US warship. Take out at least two important over the horizon radar units. All of these protected by integrated air defences.

USA is performing worse than Russia. For all the shit NAFOids gave Russia, looks like Westoids bend harder during actual war. They fully clowned themselves and worst part is they don't even realise or notice just how much Iran is embarrassing them. Honestly could never have expected so many US airbases to be hit so easily.

I mostly agree here, but I think you are overestimating Iran here. Bombarding an airbase with a few dozen 110 lbs warhead Shaheds does not mean disabling an airbase, let alone "destroying it".
This is the same problem Russia faces in Ukraine. Russian Iskandars and Khinzal can hit anywhere including airbases with impunity, but, Ukraine always gets them back into operational service in a few days or so. Destruction of an airbase (or disabling it for a prolonged time) requires very heavy firepower.

But yes, US bases in the pacific are extremely fragile and at most they give a false sense of security to host nations which results in them acting up in delusion.

 

[Tomboy]

Surprise surprise Iran doesn't have the ability to hit moving ships like we've all suspected was bluster from Iran when they talked about AShBM. Tied up or not, US air defences failing everywhere. More than just a handful of examples. Perception of invincibility gone. The thing that is most valuable to US and NAFO fanboys everywhere who perform full time work online to keep up this false air of US invincibility.

It's just rather disingenuous to call it a warship at all, it was confirmed yesterday to be an MST target ship. It's not even a supply ship as what you are claiming.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

Or take out key air defense assets using more expensive high end missiles, thus allowing the cheaper slower missiles to be able to reach their targets.

No need. Those J6 and J7 drones would be ideal for targeting air defense batteries. Their sole purpose would be to deplete Taiwan’s air defense in the first few hours of the war. Of course, DF-11 and DF-15s (especially those obsolete ones produced in the 1990s with CEPs of 300 plus metres and without MARVs) would perform similar roles given the massive stockpile of Taiwan’s SAMs. The high end missiles would likely be reserved for TW’s underground command centres, time sensitive targets like armour columns and airfield runways.

 

[gpt]

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I just found this I realize that the only reason usa can do all this shit is because their homeland never gets attacked I feel like china needs to demonstrate that any attack on China will result in attack on USA Americans feels too safe this article is talking about strikes on Beijing imagine that the capital on a nuclear armed country do these people think America will never get attacked

Chinese leaders are fairly prudent when it comes to wargaming these sort of scenarios, decapitations, suppression of their C2 etc, hence the push for resilient systems for redundancy, inland buildout/战略大后方, underground facilities and that massive command and control center in Beijing.

When you game these things, you need to be comfortable with being uncomfortable. As ISR, precision navigation and propulsion tech improves, future conflicts are increasingly likely to be fought in high intensity shootouts with a high degree of unpredictability. If you haven't read Dark Forest by Liu Cixin, well I'll just say that the author makes a point about how years (or even centuries) of careful planning can be undone with a single black swan event.

Reminds of of this Elon Musk tweet



when in reality, identifying what cannot be predicted in the future may be a better measure of intelligence.

 

[siegecrossbow]

No need. Those J6 and J7 drones would be ideal for targeting air defense batteries. Their sole purpose would be to deplete Taiwan’s air defense in the first few hours of the war. Of course, DF-11 and DF-15s (especially those obsolete ones produced in the 1990s with CEPs of 300 plus metres and without MARVs) would perform similar roles given the massive stockpile of Taiwan’s SAMs. The high end missiles would likely be reserved for TW’s underground command centres, time sensitive targets like armour columns and airfield runways.

I think that J-6 drones are being phased out because you need to spend time and effort making sure that airframes produced during the 70s airworthy. Producing similar decoy drones is not an issue for China’s production capabilities.

 

[bsdnf]

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I just found this I realize that the only reason usa can do all this shit is because their homeland never gets attacked I feel like china needs to demonstrate that any attack on China will result in attack on USA Americans feels too safe this article is talking about strikes on Beijing imagine that the capital on a nuclear armed country do these people think America will never get attacked

PLAAF really needs some water

Oh, and RF's large-scale nuclear expansion and PLAN's Type 005.

 

[ougoah]

It's just rather disingenuous to call it a warship at all, it was confirmed yesterday to be an MST target ship. It's not even a supply ship as what you are claiming. View attachment 170472

Fine ignore this ship.

Iran despite it's lack of military power has managed to hit American radar sites and airbases multiple times with various ordinance.

 

[Almond98]

Im not trying to downplay american defence system but the way they are performing against iran they better realize they would be in way worse situation. The american is already having trouble to defend their allies. And this is despite them being prepared and planned preemptive strike. In china-taiwan war its very obvious china is going to strike first. So they would be way more prepared than america. Will america be ready by then? Whether its quality or quantity china is superior to iran in every way. They can produce missile thousand times what iran can produce. Their intel & surveillance is on par with america. And we know when it comes to missile they are way ahead than america. If war start post 2030 they are going to face thousands of 5th gen and 4th gen fighter jet. What im trying to say the current american military buildup in asia is not enough for them to win against china.