PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Gloire_bb

Colonel
Registered Member
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It was actually suggest by the DND in 2004
It's for Taipei and indeed 20 years ago though. Nice way of asking someone else (already willing) to suicide.
I am under no much illusion about humanity of US, but in China case, there are things to launch back.

Furthermore, as US may have found out recently, even if nation doesn't want to commit to a death spiral, you can force them to by being really insistent.
3G dam is a maaaassive conventional effort within mainland China (even small/non-reinforced Ruhr dams took lots of purpose-designed munitions just b/c of the nature of what Gravity dam is), for the sake of massive undiscriminate counter-value(civilians, elites etc).
It's very obvious what exactly this implies and what will be the scale of reply.

This doesn't mean 3G can't be a target per se - it's in fact very likely it will be. But not dam, rather, it's electric capacity. Which is certainly quite brutal too(still same milions affected), but within norms and laws of warfare.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also why do you think the US main strategy in Taiwan is to blow up the Three Gorges Damn. Simple they can only attack civilians. We have literally seen this in Yugoslavia where they only got a victory because they threatened to bomb Belgrade to the ground. They didn't do any damage the Yugoslav army, they just tickled them. Same thing in Iran where they bombed an elementary school.

Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.
 

talonn

Junior Member
Registered Member
Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam
have been wondering about this too.
 

Gloire_bb

Colonel
Registered Member
Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.
How gravity dam works?
Gravity refers to dam resisting water pressure via its weight(i.e. dam's friction with underlying substrate under pressure). As such, its weight is established by the volume of water it holds, and is ~65 million ton mostly solid structure.
Even modern strategic nuke will not crack it open immediately, though will be a disaster anyway. But 454 kg warhead will not do much.
If you're doing conventional attack - you have to use very specific ways with very heavy munitions.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.

There is only one dam (after 3 gorge dam) on the mainstream of the Yangtze River as it flows toward the East China Sea, Gezhouba Dam.

Beyond Gezhouba, the Yangtze enters its middle and lower reaches, characterized by flat alluvial plains. From Yichang all the way to Shanghai (a distance of roughly 1,600 km), the river is not dammed for several reasons; topography, navigation and flood control
 

gk1713

Junior Member
Registered Member
Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.
Sounds like with a major requires no math of physics.
Just ask ai how to do it and estimate the cost.
 

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.
You're overestimating the destructive power of cruise missiles by a wide margin.
First, get this basic concept straight in your mind: the Three Gorges Dam is a massive concrete gravity dam. It is far stronger and more solid than ordinary natural granite mountain rock. Do you seriously believe that a few dozen cruise missiles could cause such an engineered colossus to collapse entirely?
Anyone with a modicum of common sense knows that in wartime, the dam would never be allowed to maintain a high-reservoir water level. So even if the dam were somehow seriously damaged or breached, it wouldn't produce the apocalyptic downstream flooding catastrophe you're imagining — because the reservoir would have been deliberately drawn down well in advance, drastically reducing the volume of water that could be released and the resulting surge.
And in this entire discussion, I haven't even bothered to mention the fact that the dam sits hundreds of kilometers deep inside China's air-defense network. Unless the entire Chinese military falls asleep, there's simply no realistic way for those late-20th-century-designed cruise missiles (subsonic, relatively slow, large radar cross-section, low-altitude but not stealthy) to penetrate all the way to the target unmolested. Not to mention that the ships or platforms launching those missiles would have entered China's military surveillance envelope long before they could even fire — they'd likely be detected, tracked, and neutralized well in advance.
If the Chinese navy no longer exists, you can try launching cruise missiles like you did with Iran.
 
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kafkahibino

New Member
Registered Member
Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.
bro do you think the plaaf does not exist , are you not aware of how many strike and air superiority aircraft it can surge to launch alcm , albm and pgm/glide bombs at fixed targets such as us/allied bases and a2a missiles at us/allied aircrafts respectively , or that the plaaf does operate 60+ early warning aircrafts which can cue sam to aerial targets which the iranians dont have ?
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Does China has any strategy to minimize the damage in case Three Gorge Dam get blown up? They can build several smaller dams along the Yangtze to block the water..

Some people said missiles cannot reach the dam, but not if US launches dozens of stealth tomahawks like yesterday. All it takes is one missile to crack open the dam. If US feels determination, they will go for 40 cruise missiles at once.
It's not "can," it's "already doing."

There are 127 reservoirs in the Yangtze River basin, Three Gorges Dam is just the largest and most prominent dam.

Flood control over the years has never been simply a matter of the Three Gorges Dam just holding back all the water; even the Three Gorges Dam cannot do that.

It's a massive, systemic project; the Three Gorges Dam is just one but not only key component.
 
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