PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[A potato]

US AD have failed repeatedly against even the third rate 1980s SCUD. They say they corrected the clock issue from the original Patriot that achieved a whopping <10% success rate against SCUDs but Iran doesn't use SCUDs.

US AD has no chance intercepting a third rate (by China's PLARF standards) DF-15 let alone a real HGV like DF-17.

You're also forgetting China would perform saturation attacks against US. In this regard, it is worth shooting less capable and older missiles not in an attempt to deplete AD (or the actual target if not the AD site) but to overwhelm its radar tracking and operators. For every missile Iran is capable of throwing, China is capable of throwing 100. It's fair to say China outproduces just about anything you care to think of compared to Iran by more than a magnitude of 2. Let's take something like cars or ships over 500 tonnes. China has build more than 100 times that of Iran with ease. For most products it's a magnitude of 3 or 4 at least. Google what magnitude actually means if you don't know and if you think Iran has 500 ballistic missiles stockpiled, you best believe China would have 50,000 if it is marching to war against the US. Difference is USA has no chance of air superiority even within the first island chain, let along over China. The factories will be running 24/7 and if they are hit, American factories aren't intact either. DF-5, FOBS, DF-31, DF-41, DF-45/51, CJ-1000, JL-1 ALBM, JL-2 SLBM, JL-3 SLBM, YJ-20, YJ-19, YJ-17 will ensure no American MIC is left intact.

US stands zero chance in this region against China if it's getting its ships obliterated with ease by Iran within just 18 hours of war. Iran has managed to take out several US airbases protected by multilayered integrated American air defences. Take out a US warship. Take out at least two important over the horizon radar units. All of these protected by integrated air defences.

USA is performing worse than Russia. For all the shit NAFOids gave Russia, looks like Westoids bend harder during actual war. They fully clowned themselves and worst part is they don't even realise or notice just how much Iran is embarrassing them. Honestly could never have expected so many US airbases to be hit so easily.

Also why do you think the US main strategy in Taiwan is to blow up the Three Gorges Damn. Simple they can only attack civilians. We have literally seen this in Yugoslavia where they only got a victory because they threatened to bomb Belgrade to the ground. They didn't do any damage the Yugoslav army, they just tickled them. Same thing in Iran where they bombed an elementary school.

 

[vincent]

No need. Those J6 and J7 drones would be ideal for targeting air defense batteries. Their sole purpose would be to deplete Taiwan’s air defense in the first few hours of the war. Of course, DF-11 and DF-15s (especially those obsolete ones produced in the 1990s with CEPs of 300 plus metres and without MARVs) would perform similar roles given the massive stockpile of Taiwan’s SAMs. The high end missiles would likely be reserved for TW’s underground command centres, time sensitive targets like armour columns and airfield runways.

I hope you do know those “massive” stockpile of SAMs are utterly useless without radars, radars that will be taken out in the first wave of attack.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

No need. Those J6 and J7 drones would be ideal for targeting air defense batteries. Their sole purpose would be to deplete Taiwan’s air defense in the first few hours of the war. Of course, DF-11 and DF-15s (especially those obsolete ones produced in the 1990s with CEPs of 300 plus metres and without MARVs) would perform similar roles given the massive stockpile of Taiwan’s SAMs. The high end missiles would likely be reserved for TW’s underground command centres, time sensitive targets like armour columns and airfield runways.

Very few Taiwanese SAMs will ever be fired. They won't have the sensors to do so or they'll be destroyed on the ground in warehouses.

 

[supersnoop]

I think that J-6 drones are being phased out because you need to spend time and effort making sure that airframes produced during the 70s airworthy. Producing similar decoy drones is not an issue for China’s production capabilities.

I’ve been saying for a while, anyone who talks about waves of J6/J7 drones is not to be taken seriously. There is literally no point to them compared to a modern purpose built drone or cruise missile. Totally inefficient, they need a full size airfield for operations for one.

Also why do you think the US main strategy in Taiwan is to blow up the Three Gorges Damn. Simple they can only attack civilians. We have literally seen this in Yugoslavia where they only got a victory because they threatened to bomb Belgrade to the ground. They didn't do any damage the Yugoslav army, they just tickled them. Same thing in Iran where they bombed an elementary school.

Hand this one to American soft power… no one ever thinks of bombing of Belgrade as a terror attack which it was. They bombed civilian infrastructure like a TV station in a fully developed city in Europe (just because it’s not Paris, London, or Berlin doesn’t make it not European).

EDIT: I wonder what kind of damage parameters the Dam was constructed with. Post 9/11 I saw engineering parameters for a nuclear power station that required the reactor building to withstand a 747 smashing into it. The Three Gorges was built pre 9/11, but China historically over designed for infrastructure attacks (ie bomb shelter garages with blast doors being common)

 

[siegecrossbow]

I’ve been saying for a while, anyone who talks about waves of J6/J7 drones is not to be taken seriously. There is literally no point to them compared to a modern purpose built drone or cruise missile. Totally inefficient, they need a full size airfield for operations for one.

Think of it as a stopgap measure like many others PLAAF took around the turn of the century.

 

[supersnoop]

Think of it as a stopgap measure like many others PLAAF took around the turn of the century.

Yes, but OP is talking about it now in 2026. There are so many better options. How many times have you seen J6/J7 People’s Drone waves being mentioned here in the last 5 years even when Chinese companies are showing new models of drones every time their designers take a dump?

 

[ForcedTrend]

Im not trying to downplay american defence system but the way they are performing against iran they better realize they would be in way worse situation. The american is already having trouble to defend their allies. And this is despite them being prepared and planned preemptive strike. In china-taiwan war its very obvious china is going to strike first. So they would be way more prepared than america. Will america be ready by then? Whether its quality or quantity china is superior to iran in every way. They can produce missile thousand times what iran can produce. Their intel & surveillance is on par with america. And we know when it comes to missile they are way ahead than america. If war start post 2030 they are going to face thousands of 5th gen and 4th gen fighter jet. What im trying to say the current american military buildup in asia is not enough for them to win against china.

i'm starting to think that china arsenal is overkill for the overhyped american AD
all the years bombing civilians in the desert made them believe they have magic weapons and china built theirs believing that too
first day of the epstein war and they are already low on AD, how can that compete against china's production

 

[Gloire_bb]

Also why do you think the US main strategy in Taiwan is to blow up the Three Gorges Damn.

To be fair, it is more of a netizen strategy, not US.
Blowing up grav dams isn't exactly easy, and response to something like that will be massive countervalue.

 

[A potato]

To be fair, it is more of a netizen strategy, not US.
Blowing up grav dams isn't exactly easy, and response to something like that will be massive countervalue.

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It was actually suggest by the DND in 2004

 

[bebops]

i'm starting to think that china arsenal is overkill for the overhyped american AD
all the years bombing civilians in the desert made them believe they have magic weapons and china built theirs believing that too
first day of the epstein war and they are already low on AD, how can that compete against china's production

Missile that has defensive mechanism will make anti missile much harder to shoot down such as doing barrel roll or zig zag at the final phase. In the future, many features can be added on to a missile such as EW, jamming besides stealth. It will make a missile almost invincible