PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[vincent]

What do you guys think if china starts the reunification operation now or after few days of the US-Iran war starts?
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc


I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.

I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.

What the American deployed to West Asia right now is almost the peak of its power for years to come. It is all downhill from here.

Reunification is a secondary goal for China. Kicking all hostile forces out from the First Island Chain is the main goal.

 

[obj 705A]

What do you guys think if china starts the reunification operation now or after few days of the US-Iran war starts?
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc


I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.

I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.

The chances are at most 10%.
The type 095 has only recently been launched. China still needs dozens more SSNs. The type 096 is still no where to be seen. few couples more CVs/CVNs are needed. H-20 is still not ready so the air component of the nuclear triad that can reach CONUS is still not ready.

Only when China can ensure it has the capability to fully destroy the US military conventionaly and cover CONUS with mushroom clouds from air, land and sea will it start military reunification.

On top of that there is still the economic/civil industrial component. For example a domestic alternative to widebody Boeing and Airbus planes is still not ready.

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2026889965540618279

 

[mister unknown]

What do you guys think if china starts the reunification operation now or after few days of the US-Iran war starts?
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc


I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.

I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.

Extremely unlikely.

1. The US always has the option to abandon the Iran war & redirect these forces against the PRC. Israel certainly wouldn't like to see that happen, but it's always a possibility.

2. We're on a trajectory to be able to overpower the US regardless of whether they're preoccupied elsewhere. The overall balance of power will continue to shift in our favor over time.

3. Even if we were to take advantage of US preoccupation, we might want to wait until they're exhausted after a lengthy war. If they are already a spent force, they won't have the option to abandon their war elsewhere & redirect forces.

That said, in the future if we want to constrain US adventurism elsewhere, we always have the option of applying pressure to them on the TW front. However, I would personally prefer that the US spends itself into oblivion in wars in other regions.

 

[plawolf]

What do you guys think if china starts the reunification operation now or after few days of the US-Iran war starts?
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc


I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.

I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.

China is not going to let reunification be decided on someone else’s timetable.

China is also way past the point where there is any realistic risk that even American direct intervention would be able to prevent armed reunification.

China has not kicked off AR not because it lacks the power to do so, but because of other, grander considerations that all have little to do with Iran or any losses America might take from a failed Iranian gambit.

There is almost zero chance of China seeking to kick off AR just because America is attacking Iran, and America knows this, which is why it is concentration forces to attack Iran as it knows there is almost zero risk China would seek to exploit any temporary U.S. military force reductions in Asia.

 

[Jono]

3. Even if we were to take advantage of US preoccupation, we might want to wait until they're exhausted after a lengthy war. If they are already a spent force, they won't have the option to abandon their war elsewhere & redirect forces.

Why not fight a proxy war by arming Iran for this purpose? Afterall, America has been arming Japan, Taiwan, and the PH against China, why not return the favour now?

 

[Enger12]

The argument that the PLA must hold a total advantage over the U.S. in order to act is not very credible.

There are many strategies to avoid full U.S. involvement.

I found an interesting video that focuses on how the PLA could limit the Taiwan battlefield to just Taiwan .

Given the pretext that most nations on Earth do not recognize Taiwan as an sovereign nation, there would be limited options for international collaboration (e.g., through the UN). It would inevitably takes time to form a proper counter to China at the initial stage, since responding requires going through the necessary political and legal procedures.

Direct involvement in the first few days might be limited to intelligence support. and maybe US submarine operations and which they can claim the attack is from taiwanese submarines.

As we have seen in the Ukraine war, even Russia was able to achieve successful strikes and took massive land in the initial stage. Such early paralyzed effect gives the offensive side a massive advantage.

If the PLA were able to achieve maximum effect during this initial stage, roughly within seven days, and take over major cities and ports. the war might be over before the U.S. and its allies could form a proper response.

And Western power might has to face that new reality, there wont even be much room on international stage for a taiwaneses Government-in-exile since most nation didn't recognize taiwan as a sovereign nation in the first place.

 

[mister unknown]

Why not fight a proxy war by arming Iran for this purpose? Afterall, America has been arming Japan, Taiwan, and the PH against China, why not return the favour now?

Yes, we should absolutely fight a proxy war vs the US. However, the issue of proxy wars was a separate question which I didn't address.

That said, there is the question of timing, which brings its own operational complications.

If we arm & support Iran too much too early, the US might be deterred from starting a war in the first place, in which case we wouldn't have a proxy war to fight at all (protecting Iran is not a bad outcome, I'm just pointing out the immediate short-term consequence of effective deterrence). If we arm Iran too little too late, whatever we give them might not make a difference.

On principle I absolutely agree with you, executing a proxy war effectively will require some delicate balancing.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

The argument that the PLA must hold a total advantage over the U.S. in order to act is not very credible.

I think the primary concern is economic/societal rather than military: how to mitigate the sudden shock resulting from disruptions to trade and financial markets. China has steadily been creating alternative means for trade/finance and developing markets outside of the Western hemisphere/Europe, but more time is needed to reduce the socioeconomic shock to an acceptable threshold.

 

[ForcedTrend]

What do you guys think if china starts the reunification operation now or after few days of the US-Iran war starts?
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc


I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.

I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.

that would be a guaranteed victory for china but they won't do it, i think china still believes in a pacific reunification