PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ZeEa5KPul said:

Frankly, anyone thinking that a Taiwan war is anything less than a no-holds-barred fight to the death against the US and all of its allies in the western Pacific from t0 is not worth engaging seriously. At this point it's like arguing with a flat earther.

There's no politics, no if X then Y, no what Z thinks. It's maximum, unrestrained violence from the first instant.

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What Taiwan war is, is entirely dependent on how powerful China is. If China becomes 2 times US gdp in a few decades, gets overwhelming military power in its region, then there is no way US is willing to bet everything on a guaranteed defeat.

If it happens now for example, there is enough anti-China hatred and superiority complex in US and Japan that they probably think they can still win, which means if it happens now, it could become a region wide pacific war 2.0.

China's goal will be delay this war as long as they can, to gain a more favorable power balance.

For long term security, China absolutely can't allow any hostile forces in the First Island Chain.

tamsen_ikard said:

What Taiwan war is, is entirely dependent on how powerful China is. If China becomes 2 times US gdp in a few decades, gets overwhelming military power in its region, then there is no way US is willing to bet everything on a guaranteed defeat.

If it happens now for example, there is enough anti-China hatred and superiority complex in US and Japan that they probably think they can still win, which means if it happens now, it could become a region wide pacific war 2.0.

China's goal will be delay this war as long as they can, to gain a more favorable power balance.

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The latest price surveys in China actually indicate the Chinese economy is already twice the size of the US, in terms of actual physical output of goods and services. This is from 3 different surveys, and there are probably more.

And we do see the Chinese Air Force and Chinese Navy buying over twice as much stuff as the USA every year.

AndrewS said:

The latest price surveys in China actually indicate the Chinese economy is already twice the size of the US, in terms of actual physical output of goods and services. This is from 3 different surveys, and there are probably more.

And we do see the Chinese Air Force and Chinese Navy buying over twice as much stuff as the USA every year.

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But China is much behind when it comes to actual force numbers RIGHT NOW. China is behind in most naval categories like destroyers, submarines and carriers. They are also behind in stealth fighter jet counts. If they can keep up the pace of faster buildup, then they can close the gap and even leapfrog the US in several years. In 2 decades they will much ahead and that is when US will lose all desire to intervene in Taiwan.

By then even Taiwan might give up on fantasy of fighting China and then we will see move towards peaceful reunification.

tamsen_ikard said:

But China is much behind when it comes to actual force numbers RIGHT NOW. China is behind in most naval categories like destroyers, submarines and carriers. They are also behind in stealth fighter jet counts. If they can keep up the pace of faster buildup, then they can close the gap and even leapfrog the US in several years. In 2 decades they will much ahead and that is when US will lose all desire to intervene in Taiwan.

By then even Taiwan might give up on fantasy of fighting China and then we will see move towards peaceful reunification.

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The US is already way behind on missiles and basing in the theater of conflict, and those are the numbers that matter the most. What the US has globally is not what they can field against China locally. Look at how long it’s taken to move just a fraction of what the US would need to fight China for this Iran situation.

tamsen_ikard said:

In 2 decades they will much ahead and that is when US will lose all desire to intervene in Taiwan.

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Frankly, once there are two 004s in the water, and the J-50 has been inducted, there will be no more desire. This should happen by 2035, let alone by 2046.

latenlazy said:

The US is already way behind on missiles and basing in the theater of conflict, and those are the numbers that matter the most. What the US has globally is not what they can field against China locally. Look at how long it’s taken to move just a fraction of what the US would need to fight China for this Iran situation.

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I am not saying things are good for US now. It most likely isnt. But there is enough asset disparity in several key categories like stealth fighter jet count and carrier aviation that US and its worshipping vassals like Taiwan and Japan can still reasonably hope for a victory. Atleast it will not be a complete landslide victory for the PLA.

But by 2050, the differences will be so overwhelming in China's favor that there will be no scope to cope. They will have to accept China's dominance and give up any desire to fight.

tamsen_ikard said:

I am not saying things are good for US now. It most likely isnt. But there is enough asset disparity in several key categories like stealth fighter jet count and carrier aviation that US and its worshipping vassals like Taiwan and Japan can still reasonably hope for a victory. Atleast it will not be a complete landslide victory for the PLA.

But by 2050, the differences will be so overwhelming in China's favor that there will be no scope to cope. They will have to accept China's dominance and give up any desire to fight.

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Some asset categories matter a whole lot more than others. A gun is just an unwieldy club without bullets.

Dante80 said:

Isn't this like saying though that a Taiwan war is never happening because it'd be WWIII and who the fuck would say yes to that?

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The same kind of people who said yes to WWI and WWII. The ones afraid of losing by not fighting. If the only alternative is to lose without fighting, then there will always be people—whose ideology is stronger than their self-preservation—who prefer to go down swinging.

For example, neither Germany in 1914 nor Japan in 1941 were eager for war. They just thought starting a war was the least-bad option.

plawolf said:

If SK can be a true neutral wall, they wouldn’t be in this predicament. But they cannot be truly neutral

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unfortunately SK, by accepting THAAD missile defense system (plus or minus other long range surveillance radar systems ostensibly against NK but in fact against China) on its soil in 2017, has signaled to Beijing its abandonment of its neutral stance in favor of the Americans. THAAD is a serious threat to China and must be dealt with at the onset of military conflicts with the US, unless the SK Government grows a spine and expels all US forces and weapon systems from its soil in time before China makes the move.
I fully agree with Plawolf that SK is in a dire predicament, caught between a rock and a hard place.