PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[plawolf]

Not Sweden, Sweden was German idea.

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And it wasn't tried exactly because Sweden wasn't exactly weak enough to just roll it over instead of other war needs.
ROK is absolutely fucked geographically, but it's a highly militarized porcupine...just as militarized as the North frankly. If there's option to let them be, better let them be.

In terms of standing forces, sure, but as a whole society, in terms of comprehensive industrial capability and location of said industry? Nowhere close.

SK’s defence strategy is a classic one of deterrence. It’s designed to deter a war by making the starting costs of such a war as high as possible. But once the war starts, they need American industry to continue the fight even against just NK.

And the whole rationale for why China will have to deal with SK is not particularly because China covets their lands, but because there is just zero realistic prospects that they can remain truly neutral in any fight between China and America.

They're about as close to Tokyo, Beijing and Shanghai. There's tacit understanding that their superheavy ballistic missiles have lighter warhead options, to fly way beyond MTCR restrictions.
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You do realise that strengths the case for dealing with them, not weakens it right? It’s far better to hit their TELs on the ground than trying to shoot down ballistic missiles already airborne heading towards Beijing and Shanghai.

It's indeed regrettably rather likely that ROK won't be able to seat out this conflict, but this is not same Korea which was rolled over by later Jin just to secure their flank.

Also, not sure if North will be enthusiastic, unless SK strikes China first. Mutual treaty is defensive, after all.

Are you kidding? NK will snap your hand off if you offered them SK. NK has zero interest in fighting alone against SK and America, but if China and America are already directly engaged, to be frank, China may struggle to prevent NK from starting a Korean front even if it genuinely wants to.

 

[Gloire_bb]

In terms of standing forces, sure, but as a whole society, in terms of comprehensive industrial capability and location of said industry? Nowhere close.

It's a lot of industry. It isn't especially resilient, sure, but neither is much of China's advanced industry... frankly, South as a neutral "wall" below two "nuclear walls" above it(fully shielding northeast and capital region) is worth more than it's neutering. Unless it is absolutely forced.

You do realise that strengths the case for dealing with them, not weakens it right? It’s far better to hit their TELs on the ground than trying to shoot down ballistic missiles already airborne heading towards Beijing and Shanghai.

Dealing with TELs in a well defended, super mountainous/forestry/urban county is bitch of a task, however. Especially if you're also busy with separatists, Japan and US.
Worst thing is that Korea smells bloody ground campaign, which(due to DPRK and breakout elements) can so easily go absolutely wrong.

Are you kidding? NK will snap your hand off if you offered them SK. NK has zero interest in fighting alone against SK and America, but if China and America are already directly engaged, to be frank, China may struggle to prevent NK from starting a Korean front even if it genuinely wants to.

NK probably won't mind South Korea delivered to them on a plate(despite their official policy shifting from it), but this is a bit of a speculation.
But fighting a conquest land war, against SK and without nukes, is a huge, huge risk. This isn't the past, DPRK by large is preparing to defend against ROK, not steamroll it into Persian carpet. Look at their procurement, fires, fires, fires and more fires. This is not an offensive posture.

 

[plawolf]

Even if the RoK will eventually be gang pressed by the US into becoming cannon fodder (which I agree is a high likelihood occurrence), if we can delay the onset of hostilities vs the RoK by hours/days, it would make a strategic difference in the opening phase of the war.

No it won’t. China is not going to bet its capital and financial centre on SK maybe somehow being able to miraculously grow a spine, some balls and the muscle needed to resist America all in the blink of an eye, which is what your hours and days means in geopolitical terms.

The PLA will need sufficient forces in place ready to defend against SK and American attacks originating from SK territory such that functionally it would make little difference from the forces it would need to take the fight directly to SK instead. Not in the forces that matters the most and are most in demand (navy, air force, space based and air defences) in any case.

In this day & age, the primary US advantage in any war vs the PRC is their forward presence & favorable geography. In layman's terms, their forward deployed forces are relatively close to our homeland & industrial centers, whereas ours are nowhere near theirs. Their primary advantage is that they can use these forward deployed forces to try to do as much damage as they can in the opening hours of the war, so as to diminish our industrial capacity to the maximum extent possible.

What do you think US forces in SK are?

However, we all know that these bases & forward deployed forces won't last long. If none of their infrastructure/forces in the RoK are available for use during the opening hours of the war, by the time they can be used the rest of their forces in APAC might already be devastated beyond repair.

In which case you are vastly underestimating Chinese strategic force planning. China is not planning to be able to fight Taiwan, America, Japan or SK individually, it’s preparing to fight all of them plus Australia and NATO all at the same time and probably have a ridiculous safety margin built in on top.

In modern warfare, offence is often easier and cheaper than defence (see basically all recent combat experience). The amount of forces China will need to hold back to guard against a possible surprise alpha strike from SK and US forces in SK is almost certainly going to be more than the forces China will need to take the fight to them directly. And these are precisely the forces that China will be most short on to defend against the inevitable U.S. attempts to attack industrial, power, transportation and other dual use or outright civilian soft targets all alone the coast line.

Moreover, in terms of geography, US bases in the RoK are the closest ones to Beijing. Those are the ones that would most likely be used to attempt decapitation strikes & other attacks vs civilian & military infrastructure in the north. Keeping those strikes from happening for a few hours buys us a great deal of extra time to make all kinds of preparations to minimize damage & ready a counterstrike.

That’s a reason to hit them and take them out early rather than wait for them to get good and ready to hit you with their mightiest alpha strike at a time of their choosing.

There's also the political dimension. We must always prepare for the possibility that the US might not intervene vs armed reunification, however unlikely that might be.

The probability of US non-intervention will only grow as the military balance of power becomes ever more lopsided in our favor. If we attack the RoK immediately, we'll force their hand as a treaty ally of the RoK, & escalate a conflict beyond what was originally necessary to achieve our goals.

The precondition for the Korean front is that China and America are already directly engaged in open combat.

 

[plawolf]

It's a lot of industry. It isn't especially resilient, sure, but neither is much of China's advanced industry... frankly, South as a neutral "wall" below two "nuclear walls" above it(fully shielding northeast and capital region) is worth more than it's neutering. Unless it is absolutely forced.

If SK can be a true neutral wall, they wouldn’t be in this predicament. But they cannot be truly neutral, and a wall that only serves to block and limit your forces that your opfor can hide behind to shoot you from is far far worse than no wall at all.

In the modern age, information is of paramount importance, and China will not tolerate having fake neutral 3rd parties acting as the whole kill chain for opfor bar the trigger pulling.

Dealing with TELs in a well defended, super mountainous/forestry/urban county is bitch of a task, however. Especially if you're also busy with separatists, Japan and US.

Still far easier than dealing with a coordinated alpha strike from all those TELs after they have all gotten into perfect position while facing zero threats.

TELs are also irrelevant if their missile magazines are smoking craters in the Earth or blocked behind half a collapsed mountain. Just ask Iran about that.

Hell, just look at the whole Israel-Iran 12 day war and ask yourself if Israel would have come off better or worst of if it had let Iran throw the first punch after being allowed to prepare for said punch in perfect peace?

I guess it’s a compliment to actually how well Chinese soft power have actually worked to cultivate the desired image it wants to portray to the world despite all the complaints and memeing about how bad Chinese state propaganda is that people across the world seem to genuinely not be able to imagine China showing any sort of aggression, initiative or opportunism in a world war setting.

NK probably won't mind South Korea delivered to them on a plate(despite their official policy shifting from it), but this is a bit of a speculation.
But fighting a conquest land war, against SK and without nukes, is a huge, huge risk. This isn't the past, DPRK by large is preparing to defend against ROK, not steamroll it into Persian carpet. Look at their procurement, fires, fires, fires and more fires. This is not an offensive posture.

Who said NK will need to do it alone?

 

[Gloire_bb]

If SK can be a true neutral wall, they wouldn’t be in this predicament. But they cannot be truly neutral, and a wall that only serves to block and limit your forces that your opfor can hide behind to shoot you from is far far worse than no wall at all.

In the modern age, information is of paramount importance, and China will not tolerate having fake neutral 3rd parties acting as the whole kill chain for opfor bar the trigger pulling.

Alternative is very dangerous shooting war, far larger than entire Taiwan ops, at annoying proximity to the capital. It's also way beyond that Chinese population expects from reunification, aka just war.

Korea historically is more than adept at pretending to do things. They're of course more than known to unwillingly be forced to fight, but there's just too much wrong in this calculus. As you can see, I'm hesitant.

TELs are also irrelevant if their missile magazines are smoking craters in the Earth or blocked behind half a collapsed mountain. Just ask Iran about that.

Hell, just look at the whole Israel-Iran 12 day war and ask yourself if Israel would have come off better or worst of if it had let Iran throw the first punch after being allowed to prepare for said punch in perfect peace?

It's a very pessimistic reference. Israel failed to destroy TELs, despite achieving historical success at SEAD, and Israel had to stop the war because it ultimately couldn't achieve decisive goals, while still getting shot at.
All while enjoying ABD density China won't be able to provide anytime soon.

Korea won't be launching deterrent salvo in first attack. It's suicidal, what do they have afterwards? Not even mentioning China(lol), there's still DPRK, point blank.

Who said NK will need to do it alone?

I think we should create a different thread for this one. But in short, Korea, Northern one too, is quite afraid of China.

Even at juiciest opportunity of reunification, China first strike on Korea will awaken fears every Korean kid is taught from school. Northern too, probably even more so - given how strongly they push for Koguryo legacy in their curriculum.

It's a very different thing should the South attack first; then, everything including direct force deployment is a fair game. But then again, how much available forces are prepared for offensive warfare on peninsula?

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Are you kidding? NK will snap your hand off if you offered them SK. NK has zero interest in fighting alone against SK and America, but if China and America are already directly engaged, to be frank, China may struggle to prevent NK from starting a Korean front even if it genuinely wants to.

NK taking SK is not an preferred outcome for China. China will need to balance eliminating US/SK offensive capabilities while leaving SK defensive capabilities intact enough to prevent an NK invasion.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Frankly, anyone thinking that a Taiwan war is anything less than a no-holds-barred fight to the death against the US and all of its allies in the western Pacific from t0 is not worth engaging seriously. At this point it's like arguing with a flat earther.

There's no politics, no if X then Y, no what Z thinks. It's maximum, unrestrained violence from the first instant.

 

[Dante80]

Frankly, anyone thinking that a Taiwan war is anything less than a no-holds-barred fight to the death against the US and all of its allies in the western Pacific from t0 is not worth engaging seriously. At this point it's like arguing with a flat earther.

Isn't this like saying though that a Taiwan war is never happening because it'd be WWIII and who the fuck would say yes to that?

 

[FriedButter]

NK taking SK is not an preferred outcome for China.

The one who will make that decision is South Korea. Not China. If South Korea gets their own version of Zelensky or the hardline Eunuch Leaders. Then it will inevitably lead to an expansion of the war.

China will need to balance eliminating US/SK offensive capabilities while leaving SK defensive capabilities intact enough to prevent an NK invasion.

It won’t prevent a North Korean invasion but have the opposite effect of enticing them to invade with or without Chinese approval. If the PLA eliminates their air assets, deplete air defense assets, and destroy their military industrial assets used to make weapons to attack China. Why wouldn't North Korea make a move?

If China “balances” eliminating their offensive capabilities instead of destroying it. Then China is taking a political stance on allowing South Korea to bomb Chinese cities. Just like the Russians are doing with Ukraine. That is going to politically backfire badly and drastically increase the risk of the scenario you are trying to avoid.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

The one who will make that decision is South Korea. Not China. If South Korea gets their own version of Zelensky or the hardline Eunuch Leaders. Then it will inevitably lead to an expansion of the war.

Well yes, ultimately it is up to SK. They can either choose to pursue an independent path, or go down fighting as a US vassal and succumb to annexation by NK.