This is such a bad analogy....flat earth is disprovable with science and your own eyes, it is a solved quantity. Taiwan war is a hypothetical future event with unknown variables. Unless you somehow have invented time travel and are just telling us what happened in history, its just strictly not true. War is always about politics. Even the PLA is constantly evolving and adapting to new technologies and doctrines. How can you guarantee 5 years from now that the PLA won't itself change its opening strategy, even if today that strategy is unrestrained strike?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
China already made 2 mistakes in the past by not pushing the US out of the Korean peninsula entirely and earlier by giving quarter to the KMT and not risking more to secure the island as well. No more half measures this time. I don't even think a large salvo strategic strike on Japan that eliminates 50% or more would make China a so called "pariah state" past the initial shock of 2 or 3 years. Sorry, but madman theory has been proven with how the US has acted in the past and how they act now. The meek will NOT inherit the earth. If the CPC make the same mistake again, then the government is incompetent.
This'll be my last point on this topic because clearly I'm in the minority here. But it has nothing to do with weakness or meekness. War is not a 1 player game and everyone gets a vote, even if they are not as strong. You basically invalidated your own point with the US example, they are increasingly diplomatically isolated and losing influence all over the world precisely because they are so eager to wield the hammer and 'enforce' their will. Do you think their 'overwhelming military success' in Venezuela and Iran was a strategic masterstroke? If so, feel free to go down the same path.
Let me ask you this: will the US tolerate Chinese troops based in Canada and/or Mexico? If the answer is no, why would China tolerate American troops on the First Island Chain that have indicated will deploy missile systems targeting Chinese cities?
China in my humble opinion will force American out either peacefully or non-peacefully.
I agree with you, they will have to push them out at some point...but that doesn't mean the only possible strategy is an overwhelming alpha missile strike on both SK/JP at the same time as TW. There are many ways to skin a cat...China didn't have to bomb Manila to gain functional control of the SCS...
Did American forces leave the Philippines? What happened to the Typhon system they brought to the Philippines? You think Americans will leave the First Island Chain on their own?
You lot are making this far too complicated. Waging a protracted high-intensity war—even victoriously—is a hideously expensive and immensely destructive undertaking which should be avoided if at all possible. Which is exactly why CCG and militia and dual-use infrastructure and so forth are so critical for making incremental gains without instigating conflict. Patient and persistent pressure can work wonders over sufficiently long timeframes. But it requires discipline, and restraint, and not immediately flying into a petulant rage at every minor setback. Just keep the broad trendlines in your favor, and let time do the hard work for you.
None of that means you don't immediately dial things up to 11 once the shooting starts. By all means avoid going to war, but after the line is crossed, then go big or go home. No half measures.
None of that means you don't immediately dial things up to 11 once the shooting starts. By all means avoid going to war, but after the line is crossed, then go big or go home. No half measures.
The problem of US forcing SK to join the war is what if North Korea joins and what is the off ramp for North Korea?
If SK loses to PRC, is SK going to get absorbed by NK? That would be a huge humanitarian disaster affecting everyone in that region. Huge quantity of refugee will flee to Japan or even China if they are desperate.
What if SK concedes to PRC but continues to fight NK? That would be a bigger death toll that armed reunification. One is a naval/air battle, and the other land battle.
If SK wins, will NK use nuke as the last resort for the political regime to survive? Neither PRC and US can control NK in that regard. There is a history of SK presidents want to be the named "The unifier," they would definitely want to push for reunification after a hard fought war, not another armistice.
If NK joins, is PRC going to start a land war through the peninsula? That would rapidly favor PRC and NK over SK and USFK.
Or does PRC even want a unified NK or SK? For sure not unified SK with US bases but I feel like PRC enjoys the best of both worlds by having both of them. One great trade partner and the other is a great shield.
These are just some situations I can think of, there are plenty of other situations for sure, and plenty of in between situations. But I think people in this thread forgot how hard is to offramp North Korea once they join in the fray compare to US/PRC/JPN.
If SK loses to PRC, is SK going to get absorbed by NK? That would be a huge humanitarian disaster affecting everyone in that region. Huge quantity of refugee will flee to Japan or even China if they are desperate.
What if SK concedes to PRC but continues to fight NK? That would be a bigger death toll that armed reunification. One is a naval/air battle, and the other land battle.
If SK wins, will NK use nuke as the last resort for the political regime to survive? Neither PRC and US can control NK in that regard. There is a history of SK presidents want to be the named "The unifier," they would definitely want to push for reunification after a hard fought war, not another armistice.
If NK joins, is PRC going to start a land war through the peninsula? That would rapidly favor PRC and NK over SK and USFK.
Or does PRC even want a unified NK or SK? For sure not unified SK with US bases but I feel like PRC enjoys the best of both worlds by having both of them. One great trade partner and the other is a great shield.
These are just some situations I can think of, there are plenty of other situations for sure, and plenty of in between situations. But I think people in this thread forgot how hard is to offramp North Korea once they join in the fray compare to US/PRC/JPN.
What do you guys think if china starts the reunification operation now or after few days of the US-Iran war starts?
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc
I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.
I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.
Like taking advantage of US pivotting it's assets to middle east, including the gerrald ford, air defence, tankers, AEW&c...etc
I know it's better to stick with your planned timeframe, but it's very interesting to think about it.
I'm 95% certain there's somebody in the PLA thinking about and trying to simulate it.