09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

Looking at PLAN's budget and the likely cost of the 09V, it is super unlikely that the 093B procurement will stop. We are stuck with a high-low mix for now. If they suddenly increase the budget, the things would change.

I think relative technological immaturity/risk of 09V and demand for new SSNs is the more prominent reason for why they're continuing to build 09IIIBs for now, but again that is one of those things that seemed fairly logical even 3-4 years back when we were predicting this stuff.

 

[antiterror13]

Looking at PLAN's budget and the likely cost of the 09V, it is super unlikely that the 093B procurement will stop. We are stuck with a high-low mix for now. If they suddenly increase the budget, the things would change.

I think budget constraint is a secondary reason (even it is important), the main reason is risk and maturity of type 095 still the consideration. Type 093B is considered matured and already very good, even not as good as tha latest Virginia, but quite powerful and silent enough. Not sure how much more expensive Type 095 is compare to 093B, my guess is ~2x (?)

 

[bsdnf]

If we assume the 095 follows the development cycle from 093 to 093A and then 093B, we will likely see a slowdown of even halt in 093B production around 2030, while simultaneously seeing the first Type 095A.

Huludao now have 20 submarine construction bay. Definitely enough to supports the simultaneous construction of 2.5 093B and two 095 per year. This means that by 2030, the plan will add at least another 12 093B and 6 095 (assuming mass production begins in 2027 or 2028). After generational shift completed, production will accelerate further.

The same shift will also happen in 094 and 096, but 2-3 years later

 

[latenlazy]

If we assume the 095 follows the development cycle from 093 to 093A and then 093B, we will likely see a slowdown of even halt in 093B production around 2030, while simultaneously seeing the first Type 095A.

Huludao now have 20 submarine construction bay. Definitely enough to supports the simultaneous construction of 2.5 093B and two 095 per year. This means that by 2030, the plan will add at least another 12 093B and 6 095 (assuming mass production begins in 2027 or 2028). After generational shift completed, production will accelerate further.

The same shift will also happen in 094 and 096, but 2-3 years later

We shouldn’t expect the same rolling iteration style development for the 095 that we saw with the 093, because that pattern of development was very much a function of trying to get to usable performance against a context of technological insufficiency.

 

[Blitzo]

We shouldn’t expect the same rolling iteration style development for the 095 that we saw with the 093, because that pattern of development was very much a function of trying to get to usable performance against a context of technological insufficiency.

I agree with this -- to an extent.

I think from rumours, we already have to accept that there is some sort of "09VA" in the works that is going to emerge by decade's end, but the question is what it will look like. I agree that 09VA is unlikely to be a reflection of rolling iterative improvements compared to the baseline 09V -- partly because by the sounds of it, it seems like 09V is already a fairly good shake and reflection of high end contemporary technologies for a SSN that the PRC industry can offer.

The question for what a prospective "09VA" will be, imo has two major options:

Option 1) a more refined, slightly lower cost version of 09V, that is more suitable for sustained long term production. This would be something like the Yasen-M to the baseline Yasen; basically the key capabilities are all retained but there are some refinements structurally and maybe in terms of dimensions, but is no less capable. (This option is not considering 09VA as the Virginia equivalent to 09V's Seawolf). This option would essentially see 09VA "replace" the baseline 09V in production once it emerges, as it would be a little more affordable and be more refined while offering no drawbacks in capability.

Option 2) a lengthened, more special payload/VLS oriented version of 09V that retains all of the same technologies but is just dimensionally longer and overall larger such as with a hull plug, and is a platform that is much more multirole by nature, with much more VLS, and is much more of a SSGN/special mission submarine, than the more "high end undersea warfare hunter killer with some moderate VLS capability" that the baseline 09V is. In this option, the 09VA and 09V in future would be produced concurrently and would share ongoing upgrades into the future of sustained production -- 09VA would be the more "SSGN/special mission oriented SSN" while 09V would be the more "classic high end hunter killer SSN"... and as new upgrades emerge, we would see the likes of "Block/Flight" improvements that are shared between 09V and 09VA. E.g.: "Block II 09V" and "Block II 09VA" would share the same key improvements except that the 09VA is longer with a hull plug for more VLS/payload options.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I agree with this -- to an extent.

I think from rumours, we already have to accept that there is some sort of "09VA" in the works that is going to emerge by decade's end, but the question is what it will look like. I agree that 09VA is unlikely to be a reflection of rolling iterative improvements compared to the baseline 09V -- partly because by the sounds of it, it seems like 09V is already a fairly good shake and reflection of high end contemporary technologies for a SSN that the PRC industry can offer.

The question for what a prospective "09VA" will be, imo has two major options:

Option 1) a more refined, slightly lower cost version of 09V, that is more suitable for sustained long term production. This would be something like the Yasen-M to the baseline Yasen; basically the key capabilities are all retained but there are some refinements structurally and maybe in terms of dimensions, but is no less capable. (This option is not considering 09VA as the Virginia equivalent to 09V's Seawolf). This option would essentially see 09VA "replace" the baseline 09V in production once it emerges, as it would be a little more affordable and be more refined while offering no drawbacks in capability.

Option 2) a lengthened, more special payload/VLS oriented version of 09V that retains all of the same technologies but is just dimensionally longer and overall larger such as with a hull plug, and is a platform that is much more multirole by nature, with much more VLS, and is much more of a SSGN/special mission submarine, than the more "high end undersea warfare hunter killer with some moderate VLS capability" that the baseline 09V is. In this option, the 09VA and 09V in future would be produced concurrently and would share ongoing upgrades into the future of sustained production -- 09VA would be the more "SSGN/special mission oriented SSN" while 09V would be the more "classic high end hunter killer SSN"... and as new upgrades emerge, we would see the likes of "Block/Flight" improvements that are shared between 09V and 09VA. E.g.: "Block II 09V" and "Block II 09VA" would share the same key improvements except that the 09VA is longer with a hull plug for more VLS/payload options.

I would argue that Option 3 also exists - The 095A is simply a step-up/upgrade in terms of overall capabilities from the 095, whether that be similar to the successive blocks of Virginia SSNs (i.e. minor upgrades) or similar to how the 093B differs from the 093/A (major upgrades).

 

[Blitzo]

I would argue that Option 3 also exists - The 095A is simply a step-up/upgrade in terms of overall capabilities from the 095, whether that be similar to the successive blocks of Virginia SSNs (i.e. minor upgrades) or similar to how the 093B differs from 093/A (major upgrades).

If 09VA emerges later than the noises seems to be suggest, I would agree with you, but currently it feels like it's already on the horizon.

Considering how big of an advancement 09V seems to be and how much contemporary tech it already likely uses, it seems a bit early for a "successive upgrade variant" to be considered so quickly.

Otoh if the noises are inaccurate and it actually comes out a fair bit later, then sure.
But the only reason the 09VA idea is odd is because it seems to be coming out fairly soon rather than later, so we have to try to make sense of that.

 

[AndrewS]

Given that the first 09V was launched before these are handed over, it now seems much more likely that there are at least a 2nd and 3rd boat somewhere along construction. If not possibly a 4th if another 09V launch happens in the next few months as rumored. It may be possible that PLAN consider the 09V design mature enough to start serial from the first batch.

They are still in the submarine equivalent of EMD/LRIP.

Note that there were 4 initial Virginia Block 1 boats. Then we saw a redesigned Block 2 appear with production ramped up.

 

[defenceman]

Hi,
china probably is investing now in 095 mature platform though in terms of submarines
china is way behind to be a true blue water beyond 2IC, as they can’t churn out ACC as
fast as these 095 and another problem China doesn’t have international players around the world
or bases under their wings so to spread out behind 2IC and more towards USA side and Australian
side Navy of China need these kind of submarines to be deployed far away from home bases slepping
under water or patrolling near the adversary border as it will take china at least 10 more years to
do something like US navy to show send a armada around the world in some weeks for their show
of power like Russian did sometime back in Cuba
thank you

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Hi,
china probably is investing now in 095 mature platform though in terms of submarines
china is way behind to be a true blue water beyond 2IC, as they can’t churn out ACC as
fast as these 095 and another problem China doesn’t have international players around the world
or bases under their wings so to spread out behind 2IC and more towards USA side and Australian
side Navy of China need these kind of submarines to be deployed far away from home bases slepping
under water or patrolling near the adversary border as it will take china at least 10 more years to
do something like US navy to show send a armada around the world in some weeks for their show
of power like Russian did sometime back in Cuba
thank you

First of all, this is a sub thread so bringing up carriers is irrelevant. Secondly, go look up the definition of blue water navy before posting garbage. Blue water navy does not mean global power projection capability, nor does it require more than the availability carrier group capable of blue water options at any moment in time. Look at the RN or MN as examples of a minimally viable blue water navy.