Nope. Isn´t going to happen. Trump sees US allies as parasites and he see Taiwanese as parasites that steal US jobs
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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I'm pretty sure 004 was built in three shifts; its construction speed is astonishing. After all, it's a key project for the 2027 centenary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army.
I think the current situation is far from the worst for China. If the South Korean right wing, led by Yoon Seok-yeol, remains in power, and the US Democratic remains in office, and a decisive battle continues in the Pacific, then China will face the WPTO (Western Pacific Treaty Organization), a military alliance comprised of the US, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia.
South Korea will sell KF-51, K9, K2, K239 MLRS, and KM-SAM to Taiwan; Japan will provide the Mogami-class destroyers; Taiwan will use the vast foreign exchange reserves of TSMC for funding; and Australia will provide raw materials for payment. Meanwhile, the US, whether through direct sales of high-end products like THAAD, PAC-3, and F-35s, or through revenue sharing from subsystems such as the MK41 and SPY systems on destroyers, or through NVIDIA, Starlink, and Paladin systems, or even more directly through forced revenue sharing, will firmly remain at the top of the value chain.
Furthermore, NATO member states are or have already been significantly impacted by the US and South Korea's military industries. With Japan's inclusion, whether in the hypothetical scenario or the real future, they will all become cash cows for the WPTO in the air, land, and sea domains.
For China, the silver lining is that with South Korea and Australia's wavering stances, and the strategic retrenchment of the US under Trump, WPTO irl is largely becoming similar to the Petite Entente.
I think the current situation is far from the worst for China. If the South Korean right wing, led by Yoon Seok-yeol, remains in power, and the US Democratic remains in office, and a decisive battle continues in the Pacific, then China will face the WPTO (Western Pacific Treaty Organization), a military alliance comprised of the US, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia.
South Korea will sell KF-51, K9, K2, K239 MLRS, and KM-SAM to Taiwan; Japan will provide the Mogami-class destroyers; Taiwan will use the vast foreign exchange reserves of TSMC for funding; and Australia will provide raw materials for payment. Meanwhile, the US, whether through direct sales of high-end products like THAAD, PAC-3, and F-35s, or through revenue sharing from subsystems such as the MK41 and SPY systems on destroyers, or through NVIDIA, Starlink, and Paladin systems, or even more directly through forced revenue sharing, will firmly remain at the top of the value chain.
Furthermore, NATO member states are or have already been significantly impacted by the US and South Korea's military industries. With Japan's inclusion, whether in the hypothetical scenario or the real future, they will all become cash cows for the WPTO in the air, land, and sea domains.
For China, the silver lining is that with South Korea and Australia's wavering stances, and the strategic retrenchment of the US under Trump, WPTO irl is largely becoming similar to the Petite Entente.
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Don't forget Kyoto. The US didn't want to wipe out Kyoto because they wanted the Japanese to still have ties to their historical roots. China won't make that mistake.
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A lot of ways how China has been developing their civilian industry is to have ability to switch to full scale war mobilization in the case is needed. China has gigantic strategic stockpile of materials distributed over million of square kilometers in China and can produce machines and components entirely on its own. Hopefully things don´t have to go there.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Kyoto is tiny. Doesn't deserve a hydrogen bomb. I didn't mention the smaller bombs, too many cities will need to be listed.
The next decade seems game over for the Sino-Japanese Relations. One thing the SeeSeePee (especially Xi himself) needs to realise from this election is that the majourity of Japanese are determined to confront China geopolitically in every step of the way. The logic is very simple. Since Japan committed numerous war crimes against China from 1895-1945, whilst Japan’s strategy as a maritime power adjacent to the Eurasia Continent has been to prevent the rise of a dominant land power, most Japanese understand that the underlying conflicts between the two countries are simply irreconcilable. China intends make Japan pay for history and Taiwan short of a war with the United States. On the other hand, losing Taiwan would make Japan more exposed to the PLAN, so Taiwan does matter to Tokyo in terms of sea lanes of communication security. This election actually demonstrates maturity among the Japanese population in knowing who their real enemies are. For them, they know any chance of Japan’s returning to greatness IDEALLY have to be the total defeat and evisceration of China as an adjacent continental power. At the end of the day, if you know your conflict with your enemy is so irreconcilable whilst what you have committed against them in the past were so horrendous (where acknowledging crimes and apologising would actually give the other side more reasons to demand paybacks), you might as well double down on a path in an attempt to weaken to keep them down. This appears to be the consensus among the Japanese people. If you have committed a brutal rape against a teenage girl and can never get away from this crime under the law, the rational choice would be to try to coerce the victim and her family to never have a chance to demand justice. If coercion doesn’t work, you kill the victim and her family. Reconciling with victim and apologise would only lead to your own downfall behind bars.
This election also shows the Japanese populace are likely to be more united behind their national cause than Chinese are over the PRC’s national rejuvenation goal. The fact that so many Chinese elites like business people and academics still aspire to Anglo liberalism and dream of making geopolitical concessions to the West in exchange for peace, trade, and stability should be an issue for Beijing to reflect upon.
It will also be interesting to see if this event, along with US arms sales to Taiwan and Zhang’s ousting, will have any effects of PLA’s budget.
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PiSigma
"the engineer"
The big automation push is also part of it. When China have dark factories for missiles and drones, just need a few hundred people to keep on spamming them out between meals. Whatever west Pacific alliance Americans can come up with will run out of bodies to sacrifice.
Yeah. China was the one who strong-armed Japan into the Plaza Accord. China was the one who destroyed Toshiba and the Japanese IC industry. The Japanese for sure are clear-eyed and lucid when it comes to determining who their real enemies are and who they think are their enemies because of perceived superiority. Yep...
I don't think the PLA will undergo any major changes, or that any Japanese prime minister has been much better than Takachi. Japan has never left the PLA's strike list.
I believe the biggest military impact will be Japan purchasing more F-35s and THAAD missiles, and supplying Taiwan with destoryer, that's a foregone conclusion. Beyond that, there's not much Japan can really do, their domestic defense industry is practically in dire straits, with only shipbuilding remaining as a viable sector.
What the PLA needs to do is keep developing its navy, air force, and rocket force, as we're currently seeing in the anti-corruption crackdown is part of that.
I believe the biggest military impact will be Japan purchasing more F-35s and THAAD missiles, and supplying Taiwan with destoryer, that's a foregone conclusion. Beyond that, there's not much Japan can really do, their domestic defense industry is practically in dire straits, with only shipbuilding remaining as a viable sector.
What the PLA needs to do is keep developing its navy, air force, and rocket force, as we're currently seeing in the anti-corruption crackdown is part of that.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
What does japan have to supply to Taiwan? People forget both US and Japan won't be able to get rare earth for their MIC. Whatever military gear is built is using stockpiled supply. The amount that can be built is limited, so more for Taiwan means less for themselves.
For China the supply is basically unlimited, since other than iron, everything is self sufficient. That's why China can spam missiles