China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[SunlitZelkova]

How would you even have MIRVs on a FOBS when the payload bus simply performs a retrograde deorbit burn? I suppose it may theoretically be possible to release at different targets to a very limited degree but even if so a FOBS on a low orbit would have a FAR smaller footprint than a traditional PBV maneuvering on the ascent phase of a high trajectory, which is already fairly limited by the way especially laterally. So, if you have a unitary warhead (and also can't release decoys like a PBV) and have as much throw weight as the DF-5 obviously it makes sense to maximize yield.

Since when was the DF-5C thought to be a FOBS?

Is there any indication why DF-5C has a new megaton warhead when it seemed earlier that such weapons were abandoned when MIRV capable DF-5B was fielded? Speculations suggested that DF-5C would carry more MIRVs than DF-5B, but then it didn't happen after all.

This is pure speculation, but I would guess the megaton warheads are being retained for hardened C2 targets. The small number of DF-5s in relation to the large number of silo DF-31s is very similar to the Soviet force structure of a (relatively) small number of R-36s compared to the massively deployed UR-100s, or the old American one of 1,000 Minutemen but only 50 Titan IIs. One of the roles of the R-36 was to use megaton yield warheads for stuff like Cheyenne Mountain (the other was to carry large numbers of MIRVs, but the DF-5B sort of already does that, and it doesn't seem due to leave service any time soon).

This would track with China's transition away from countervalue minimum deterrence.

 

[Maikeru]

It was when DF-5C's ability to hit anywhere in the world was announced at the 9/3 parade that FOBS speculation started.

 

[SunlitZelkova]

Yield aside, being a FOBS might also indicate the DF-5C is intended for C2 targets. The R-36O's targets were C2 and early warning to disable BMD (and in theory, ABM systems, although the US never ended up deploying them in a significant manner while the R-36O was operational) to ensure the success of the rest of the strike and hinder US retaliation.

 

[Broccoli]

It was when DF-5C's ability to hit anywhere in the world was announced at the 9/3 parade that FOBS speculation started.

I was under impression DF-5C has regular multimegaton warhead but if it's FOBS then single warhead makes sense.

 

[Broccoli]

Any information what kinda gravity bombs bombs PLAAF stockpiles? FAS claims China doesn't stockpile gravity bombs, but thats hard to believe especially now when J-36 exists and H-20 is coming at some point. Even Russia is said to modernize their freefall bombs.

Gravity bombs tend to be easier to hide even from satellites.

 

[Tomboy]

Any information what kinda gravity bombs bombs PLAAF stockpiles? FAS claims China doesn't stockpile gravity bombs, but thats hard to believe especially now when J-36 exists and H-20 is coming at some point. Even Russia is said to modernize their freefall bombs.

Gravity bombs tend to be easier to hide even from satellites.

But why? China does not have any credible deterrent in the aerial leg except for maybe JL-1. Until H-20 comes out, nuclear gravity bombs are basically useless.

 

[vincent]

Any information what kinda gravity bombs bombs PLAAF stockpiles? FAS claims China doesn't stockpile gravity bombs, but thats hard to believe especially now when J-36 exists and H-20 is coming at some point. Even Russia is said to modernize their freefall bombs.

Gravity bombs tend to be easier to hide even from satellites.

Only poor countries have dumb nukes.

 

[Kalec]

I am completely puzzled by Hui Zhang, what does he even mean by this.

In his new book, he concluded:
"535" has a yield of 425 kt with weight range of 170-250kg.
“5x5” has a yield range of 78-120kt with an estimated weight of 110kg.

Have to say he is very bullish on 90s Chinese technology, also I hope I get it wrong but it seems to me that Hui Zhang makes a thinly veiled malicious speculation that China completely copied W76 and W88 lol.

 

[Maikeru]

I am completely puzzled by Hui Zhang, what does he even mean by this.

In his new book, he concluded:
"535" has a yield of 425 kt with weight range of 170-250kg.
“5x5” has a yield range of 78-120kt with an estimated weight of 110kg.

Have to say he is very bullish on 90s Chinese technology, also I hope I get it wrong but it seems to me that Hui Zhang makes a thinly veiled malicious speculation that China completely copied W76 and W88 lol.

View attachment 165673
View attachment 165674

Hui Zhang must be the, er, Kindred Spirit of Wen Ho Lee then.

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