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Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
So for rare-earth climb down China only gets US to climb down from the 50% rule for 1 year.
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Woah hang on, we're missing something important and spicy here.
The Dutch making a move on Nexperia was a result of the 50% rule, they're in a real awkward position now (as in, even more awkward than they're already in).

Getting US to back off on this has the effect of teaching all the running dogs not to so carelessly carry out orders from Washington lest something similar also happens to them.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Temstar said:
Do you honestly believe that? Why didn't they speed run it back when Obama was talking about it? How's that speed running working out for Japan over the last 10 years?

When was the last time you saw US correctly carry out a major program that required societal wide effort over a decade or more? The Apollo program?
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Why depend on others' ability to fail. You always should assume worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is that they could speedrun this, the same way (maybe albeit slower than) China is doing right now for chips

You assume best case (admittedly most realistic) scenario. For such big stakes why not assume worst case scenario?

However I will give you the point that your scenario is like 95-99% sure to happen while my thinking is like almost 0%

plawolf said:
First, China’s own domestic chip production is right at the cusp of reach breakthrough in mass rollout. This extension eliminates the possible supply gap until that happens. One year is meaningless for the west in the RE race, but it’s a watershed moment for China in terms of chips.

Secondly, China wants to slow boil the American crab, so it’s dead before it even knows it. This deal is just China dialling the heat down a notch when the American crab is showing signs of agitation. It’s easier to boil it slowly when it’s calm and still as opposed it realising what you are doing and threshing about in the pan splashing boiling water all over the place. China doesn’t want to choke America so hard that it sees directly military action as the only play left.
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Fair points, i agree with both of them.
 
horse

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
horse said:
This tech bubble will not burst, not now at least.

Listen to what the boss says. He does not talk about bubbles, just business.

If we understand what he is saying, then this so-called bubble will persist.
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It's late, but one more comment.

The internet bubble of the 1990's is very different from what we are seeing today.

The former was just a speculative bubble like the Dutch tulip thing. People threw money at the internet. Most turned out to be losers, but there were some big winners.

The latter is a different era, because this time, we already know who are the winners. The winners are the companies still going up in price.

That is the case because institutional money, retail investors, the same companies themselves NDVA and INTC, and the US government, they are all putting into the same Magnificent 7 and related stocks.

In other words, this is build the railroads, this is building the future, of AI where it will be everywhere intrusively whether we like it or not.

The previous era, people just were making bets. This time, these winning companies are building a new reality to the economy, which will be, AI style, shoved down our throats.

The only part that is the same, are the suckers.

The suckers lost money in 1990's. The suckers will be dominated by AI in our era.

Maybe I am still afraid of the coming neo-feudalism.

Help! :oops:

:oops::rolleyes::p
 
zbb

zbb

Senior Member
Registered Member
Puss in Boots said:
Only the rare earth control measures introduced on October 9th were suspended; the previous measures remained in effect.
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Chinese rare earth measures introduced on October 9th include
  1. Requiring anything containing 0.1% Chinese rare earth content to obey Chinese export restrictions
  2. Ban on export of rare earth processing technology and equipment
  3. Approval requirement for use of Chinese rare earth in advanced semiconductor chips and advanced chip making equipment
It's still unclear if all of the above are suspended or just (1) is suspended. It doesn't make sense to suspend (2) as it would then just be a pause to allow US to build up its own RE processing. (3) can be viewed as simply an operational clarification (instead of a new restriction) that advanced chips and chip making equipments are dual use items and so subject to pre-existing restrictions and approval requirements.
 
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GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
FBI Director Kash Patel crushed efforts by Tulsi Gabbard's closest advisor to see if a foreign power was involved in Charlie Kirk's assassination.

The head of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, analyzed FBI files to determine whether Kirk's alleged killer received assistance from a foreign power.

Kent's investigation alarmed Patel, who believed the counterterror chief was overstepping by interfering with an ongoing FBI investigation, according to the New York Times.
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983575652465827953
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
horse said:
The bubble will not burst.

This AI is real, for the work force, it improves the employee. Therefore, as the employee becomes more productive, then that drives growth.

All the money spent, is in the data centers, which are required. More use of AI means more tokens being inputted and outputted, which means the demand for and the computer power will grow exponentially.

The talk lately is that OpenAI will become a hyper-scaler, which is like what the other companies do. That is Plan B for OpenAI.

Then the funny is, they American do not have enough power for all of this AI infrastructure spending. Therefore, if these high valuations get readjusted, it may be a while because without the power, how fast will they build?
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Look, financial speculation, low returns, and billion-dollar investments indicate that the billion-dollar AI bubble may burst.

Look at the level of spending by Big Tech companies; this is unsustainable in the long term.

To begin with, the enthusiasm for AI is surrounded by a technocratic, deterministic, and accelerationist ideology that guarantees that AI adoption will change everything.

This narrative has some basis in the wonders of AI – after all, anyone who has used a predictive chatbot (I, today, prefer the Chinese Deepseek for obvious reasons) knows that the technology can be an excellent tool for any type of work. But it is undoubtedly exaggerated and credulous regarding what AI can actually accomplish.

We still don't know very well what artificial intelligence will be used for in the future, and a lot of money has been spent on it.

An MIT study published in the middle of this year managed to quantify the difference between this "search" within companies that have AI projects and the real financial return. Of the 300 projects analyzed, 95% had no financial return. To reach this conclusion, the researchers also interviewed 150 directors of these companies.

Another problem is the formation of an oligarchy. This trend has raised alarm bells in recent years. OpenAI bought 10% of the chip company AMD, while Nvidia is investing US$100 billion in OpenAI. Microsoft, one of OpenAI's owners, is a client of the AI cloud computing company CoreWeave, which also has Nvidia as a shareholder. Microsoft accounts for almost 20% of Nvidia's revenue.

Of course, companies can collaborate. But what we are seeing here is the formation of an interconnected oligopoly that can stifle competition, control the future of technology, and concentrate power with little or no oversight.

Furthermore, the mere announcement of these agreements helps inflate the stock prices of all of them.
 
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