Russia Economy Thread

[MortyandRick]

Manufacturing has declined in Russia for the four straight months; civilian economy in recession.

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So similar to the EU and US but not as bad?

Didn't the EU have 3 years of contractions?

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"Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 49.8 in September from 50.7 in August - which was the first reading above the 50.0-point line denoting growth since mid-2022."

And didnt the US have 7 months of manufacturing PMI contractions?

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"It was the seventh straight month that the PMI remained below a reading of 50, indicating contraction in manufacturing."

 

[manqiangrexue]

Manufacturing has declined in Russia for the four straight months; civilian economy in recession.

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That's a very healthy performance considering they're beating down 30 countries. What is the "civilian economy"? You mean don't count military production when manufacturing shifts there for a war effort? Funny, I've never heard the Western nations say "civilian economy" when measuring their own gdps... they just say "economy" unless trying to pretend Russia's not doing well then we have new terms show up all over the place LOL

 

[gelgoog]

Consumption of durable goods came down because of the extremely high interest rates. But there are already signs of a small recovery in consumer lending after the Russian Central Bank cut the rate down from 21% to 17%.
I also expect civilian aircraft production to resume next year of 2026. At most it might be delayed by another year to 2027 but I kind of doubt it.

The rise of consumer gas prices probably had some impact but Gazprom still needs to fund gasification of the country as imposed by the federal government and they no longer have the revenues from European gas sales to fund it. PoS-2 will only come online likely next decade. The oil industry probably was still dependent on Western imports of equipment and consumables which now are impossible to import directly leading to costly workarounds.

Russia started putting into service large power generation F-class gas turbines of 110 and 170 MW this year. Clearly the energy industry is not only coping but coming up with its own products to replace Western imports.

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[magmunta]

That's a very healthy performance considering they're beating down 30 countries. What is the "civilian economy"? You mean don't count military production when manufacturing shifts there for a war effort? Funny, I've never heard the Western nations say "civilian economy" when measuring their own gdps... they just say "economy" unless trying to pretend Russia's not doing well then we have new terms show up all over the place LOL

I am sure you understand what "civilian economy" ought to be; but I think you just don't want to admit that China's ally in overthrowing American hegemony suffers economically. It's really hard, at times, to admit harsh truths to oneself. We are humans and that's very human-like attitude. By the way, the civilian economy is the economy which contributes to the consumers' and producers' surplus excluding war related final goods and services. By the way, the Soviet economy in 1989 was larger than in 1988 due to the growth in military production on the expanses of the civilian, productive part of the economy. Ohh also, the German GDP grew in 1944 compared to 1943 due to the war spending...

 

[gelgoog]

The West just amplifies whatever bad news come out of Russia out of proportion. Last winter it was the egg shortages. Well this year there is over supply of eggs in Russia. The US also had egg shortages this year but no one claimed that was a sign of the emminent collapse of the US economy.

The Russian economy seems to be handling this level of military expenditure just fine. There was a lot of fiscal slack, with low flat income tax, and low VAT rates pre-war. Which made it straightfoward to increase those taxes. They are still much lower than in some countries in the EU.

There are also lots of signs of increased automation in mechanical engineering and other sectors of the Russian economy. This will mitigate the labor shortage. This year already the number of open vacancies in the software programming and defense sectors have come down.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Well well well, look who's toothy today? You dared to reply to me this time; congratulations! Let's see how long you can keep it up before you crawl back under the skirt of a 30 country bloc posing as 1 nation because they're all too cowardly to stand on their own legs. I mean it; I'm bored and I want your replies to chew on.

I am sure you understand what "civilian economy" ought to be

I understand that it's a term suddenly alluded to by the West to measure a non-Western economy because the traditional Western term doesn't result in numbers that fit the Western narrative.

; but I think you just don't want to admit that China's ally in overthrowing American hegemony suffers economically.

I admit that Russia is putting in the blood and grit into this fight, and it is inflicting more kinetic and economic damage on its enemies than they are onto Russia. They are bleeding out Europe when American needs it the most against an overwhelming China.

And "American hegemony" is an expired term from decades ago. This America lost 2 trade wars and a tech war with China, has to watch China fly multiple 6th gen fighters while its own is still on a poster board and is threatening war on its own drug-infested slum cities. It is the rotting corpse of a hegemon, which is a ruler whose iron will and order cannot be meaningfully defied in any region of the world.

It's really hard, at times, to admit harsh truths to oneself. We are humans and that's very human-like attitude.

Yes, I see you are struggling very hard with the decline of the Europe, the weakness-driven spiral into insanity of America, the rise of China, the increase in Russian territory, etc..

By the way, the civilian economy is the economy which contributes to the consumers' and producers' surplus excluding war related final goods and services.

I figured that. Is the "civilian economy" the term that Western countries use when they report their own GDP or just Russia's while they use the generall all-inclusive economy to describe their own?

By the way, the Soviet economy in 1989 was larger than in 1988 due to the growth in military production on the expanses of the civilian, productive part of the economy. Ohh also, the German GDP grew in 1944 compared to 1943 due to the war spending...

And if they won, like Russia is and will continue to do, it would have all been worth it.

 

[magmunta]

Let's see how long you can keep it up before you crawl back under the skirt of a 30 country bloc posing as 1 nation because they're all too cowardly to stand on their own legs. I mean it; I'm bored and I want your replies to chew on.

I am not going to debate or advocate anything here; I have got no incentives to spend hours here. I just made an objective and measurable point that Russia's economy is increasingly struggling to sustain this war. For example, Russia has cut its defense spending for 2026 compared to 2025. That should be a kicker for everyone even when major population centers in Donetsk oblast are still under Ukrainian control. Bye the way, civilian economy is not something new; and was used during the first world war to assess German's capacity to sustain the war.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I am not going to debate or advocate anything here; I have got no incentives to spend hours here.

"Let's see how long you can keep it up before you crawl back under the skirt of a 30 country bloc posing as 1 nation because they're all too cowardly to stand on their own legs."

So the answer is 1 post? LOL I didn't expect much better. Why do you give up so easily? Are you French?

I just made an objective and measurable point that Russia's economy is increasingly struggling to sustain this war.

It's not stuggling nearly as hard as Ukraine or the EU is. And Russia is backed by China, a country that actually can provide real goods instead of an America that can only provide paper money. Russians only get stronger and stronger as they fight so don't worry about our side; worry about yours.

For example, Russia has cut its defense spending for 2026 compared to 2025. That should be a kicker for everyone even when major population centers in Donetsk oblast are still under Ukrainian control.

LOL EU's overall economy has been in stagnation and mild recession for years. Ukraine doesn't even have an economy. Russia's land in Ukraine is increasing and Ukraine's portion is decreasing. Those are kickers for the West+Ukraine having no ability to sustain the war with Russia. Trump's trying to extract the US from this because he knows China's going to be the country to eat his lunch, not Russia.

And your evidence of Russia not doing well is now that there still exists parts of Ukraine that aren't under Russian control??? LMFAO; that's like seeing someone kill half your family then saying that the killers are struggling cus the other half's still alive!

Bye the way, civilian economy is not something new; and was used during the first world war to assess German's capacity to sustain the war.

Is it used to assess the West's ability to sustain this pace against Russia? Did they say America's "civilian economy" when it's entrenched in pointless wars all over the place?" Are they saying EU's "cilivian" economy today?

Did Germany have a large backer country? China hasn't even started yet; so far, we're just doing equal business with Russia. But if Russia struggles, China turns up the heat. I'm sure you have no problem with 2 countries working together against over 30? Or is that not enough of a numeric advantage for coward EU countries?

 

[gelgoog]

I just made an objective and measurable point that Russia's economy is increasingly struggling to sustain this war. For example, Russia has cut its defense spending for 2026 compared to 2025.

Naval military expenditure probably came down with the completion of the MLU of the Admiral Nakhimov battlecruiser and the freeze of work on the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier.
The money they spent on Admiral Nakhimov alone is the equivalent of like five hundred T-90M tanks.

I also expect the Russians to have covered their fighter airframe losses this year. It seems the aviation industry will focus more on fighter exports and civil transport aircraft in the future.

The Yars ICBM deployment is also basically over.

So the most expensive systems will have cutbacks next year. Compared with the Air Force or the Navy, the Ground Forces systems are typically much cheaper.

Belousov, their Minister of Defense, also seems to put way more emphasis on cost effective systems like drones instead of more expensive systems like cruise missiles or artillery.

You can't give too much credence to annoucements of future military spending either as those are merely indicative. I also remember they said last year the defense spending would start decreasing this year yet the opposite happened. It is not in the Russian interest to give their opponents predictable publicly announced spending numbers.

That should be a kicker for everyone even when major population centers in Donetsk oblast are still under Ukrainian control.

I wonder for how long though. Those places are all under Russian fiber optic drone range already. Like Kramatorsk.

civilian economy is not something new; and was used during the first world war to assess German's capacity to sustain the war.

There is just no comparison possible. Right now Russia is in the middle of a war with less military GDP spending as a fraction of GDP than during the peaceful phases of the Cold War.

 

[2handedswordsman]

I am sure you understand what "civilian economy" ought to be; but I think you just don't want to admit that China's ally in overthrowing American hegemony suffers economically. It's really hard, at times, to admit harsh truths to oneself. We are humans and that's very human-like attitude. By the way, the civilian economy is the economy which contributes to the consumers' and producers' surplus excluding war related final goods and services. By the way, the Soviet economy in 1989 was larger than in 1988 due to the growth in military production on the expanses of the civilian, productive part of the economy. Ohh also, the German GDP grew in 1944 compared to 1943 due to the war spending...

Oh yes, financial capital, property market, stocks, even debt, and stuff like these are productive, and add positive to the economy right? Without them US yoy gdp will be in -10% decline