Russia Economy Thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Russia’s GDP to grow 0.9% in 2025, down from 1.4% in its June forecast, 0.8% in 2026 and 1% in 2027. It also projects a 0.4% decline in investment this year and a further 0.2% fall next year before modest recovery in 2027.
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At the beginning, we thought Russia wasn't economically healthy enough to extend a war and that the EU/US would crush it with sanctions if it could not win quickly but boy were we wrong. Russia 0.9% while putting the Europoors into 0.1-0/2%? Damn, that's brilliant!
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Growth fades in Europe: Is the recovery already running out of steam?​

"According to Eurostat’s second estimate released on Thursday, seasonally adjusted GDP in the euro area rose by just 0.1% in the three months to June, unchanged from the initial flash reading. The wider European Union (EU) grew by 0.2%, also in line with earlier estimates."
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
"Russia: Fuel crisis has spread to southern Khabarovsk region, adjacent to Japan." (Well, actually China)
This is nothing new. The Southwest and Far East of Russia are growing faster than originally projected.
The first case is due to people moving to places like Sochi and the annexation of territories in Ukraine. The second case is because of growing importance of trade with China, businesses are being created on the Russian side of the border and people are moving there.
This has led to energy and fuel shortages in those places.

The Far East, where Khabarovsk is, has insuficient refining capacity. As simple as that. There have been no Ukrainian strikes there so it is pretty silly to claim this as evidence of Ukrainian success in degrading Russian fuel refining capacity.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The growth in deficit was mostly because of the ruble gaining value. Like 30% I think. This makes it harder to pay government expenses with the taxation on export products.
 

Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia’s GDP to grow 0.9% in 2025, down from 1.4% in its June forecast, 0.8% in 2026 and 1% in 2027. It also projects a 0.4% decline in investment this year and a further 0.2% fall next year before modest recovery in 2027.
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It doesn’t change much since Russia has never been an economic power and will be even less the case this coming years
This coming years will be dominated economically(which is what will be improttant in the 21st century) by China, India, Indonesia, Brazil etc etc I.e all the developing countries still experiencing growth rate and with more room to grow. Their share of world GDP will keep growing to the detriment of old/past powers like UK, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, S.Korea etc
The US is still the outlier here since despite being a fully developed industrialized country for almost a century now they still have a fairly dynamic diverse economic base , most skilled workforce , advanced technology, largest R&D , vast natural resources, and they are still growing healthily for a large developed country with a vast economy and military (still the most powerful on earth by a margin). So the US will be only one among western powers to remain more relevant this coming years/decades. One thing I have learn from the US is to never underestimate them. They are a still a very resilient country/power . But other western powers(and their East Asian allies) and Russia are in an inevitable decline in the long term .
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
Russia is foremost Economic power second to none when you look at complete technological chains, research, climate and resource base and new generation of skilled people. It just need robotics to extend into mass production.
The tweet clearly explained to you why Putin will prefer to understate GDP and hide Russia wealth.
When Putin travel it has most of the time more planes than US President because his team so big and need to spend 5 days in one place to go into finer details.


 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
It doesn’t change much since Russia has never been an economic power and will be even less the case this coming years
This coming years will be dominated economically(which is what will be improttant in the 21st century) by China, India, Indonesia, Brazil etc etc I.e all the developing countries still experiencing growth rate and with more room to grow. Their share of world GDP will keep growing to the detriment of old/past powers like UK, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, S.Korea etc
The US is still the outlier here since despite being a fully developed industrialized country for almost a century now they still have a fairly dynamic diverse economic base , most skilled workforce , advanced technology, largest R&D , vast natural resources, and they are still growing healthily for a large developed country with a vast economy and military (still the most powerful on earth by a margin). So the US will be only one among western powers to remain more relevant this coming years/decades. One thing I have learn from the US is to never underestimate them. They are a still a very resilient country/power . But other western powers(and their East Asian allies) and Russia are in an inevitable decline in the long term .
Russia will never be an economic power per se because its oligarchy—including its political one—is visibly backward. The Russians know how to take advantage of their immense natural resources, but this isn't enough to transform them into an economic powerhouse like China and the US. And that's not to mention the demographic issues Russia faces, among other problems inherent to Russian society.

However, it's worth highlighting something here for you: although Russia isn't an economic powerhouse, they will be fundamental to any future economic integration because of their natural advantages: their natural resources. Asia will be the focus of growth in the coming decades, and Russia can take advantage of this moment of Asian economic growth and the shift in the axis of power from the West to Asia and reinvent itself in a post-Western order. Take the case of India and China; Russia will simply be able to have as its export/import consumer market the two largest economic powers in the world in the future, with a combined population of over 3 billion people.

This is the case with Russia. You mentioned the US. Many people call the United States an inevitable country because of its geographical advantages. However, this is pure nonsense. When the modern economy derives from technological advances and industrial scale, this was true for the United States in the 19th century.

I'll tell you how the United States became an economic superpower: Post-World War II.

When World War II ended, Europe was destroyed, and Asia was literally under the control of the United States. Think of countries that were empires like Japan and Britain, countries with advanced industries like Germany, and countries that still had significant economic power like France. All of them emerged from World War II destroyed, while America emerged from that war virtually intact, with its continental territory untouched.

All of its industrial power remained relevant until the 1960s, when signs of economic and social decline began to emerge. At the same time, during the Cold War (1949-1989), the countries that emerged from World War II, which could have posed threats to the American Empire, became economic powerhouses, but not to the point of challenging American hegemony. This was because Washington maintained control over its vassals. Japan is the greatest example of this control, as it was the country that was ascending economically and technologically to the point of challenging American economic sovereignty worldwide. However, Reagan clipped Japan's wings, and since then, Japan has been surpassed even by Germany.

The remaining Third World countries that could have challenged American economic power ended up becoming communist or underdeveloped or inefficient economies. However, with the fall of the USSR in 1991, the true shift in the global economic order began. The destroyed World War II countries were already significant economies, while the Third World countries were rising economically, while American technological hegemony was eroded to the point that today China is at the forefront of global technological advancement.

Currently, with some emerging countries climbing the global economic hierarchy, American hegemonic power (including military power) is being eroded, and they no longer have as much absolute power as they did until recently. America will remain relevant because it is still an unequal struggle, decades old, since the end of World War II, but the world will be more different in the future than it was decades ago, and it is the Americans who will ultimately suffer the greatest geopolitical impact since World War II.

Unless they reinvent themselves as you believe they can, Americans will become increasingly decadent.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
You might call it whatever you want. But the Soviet Union had the world's second largest economy from WW2 until its collapse in 1991.
With 287 million population it had the third largest population in the world behind only China and India.
If you checked metrics like steel and electricity production it was behind only the US.

Right now Russia is still behind in automation of manufacturing. But after 2022 with the rise in salaries this seems to be finally changing.
 
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magmunta

New Member
Registered Member
Russia will never be an economic power per se because its oligarchy—including its political one—is visibly backward. The Russians know how to take advantage of their immense natural resources, but this isn't enough to transform them into an economic powerhouse like China and the US. And that's not to mention the demographic issues Russia faces, among other problems inherent to Russian society.

However, it's worth highlighting something here for you: although Russia isn't an economic powerhouse, they will be fundamental to any future economic integration because of their natural advantages: their natural resources. Asia will be the focus of growth in the coming decades, and Russia can take advantage of this moment of Asian economic growth and the shift in the axis of power from the West to Asia and reinvent itself in a post-Western order. Take the case of India and China; Russia will simply be able to have as its export/import consumer market the two largest economic powers in the world in the future, with a combined population of over 3 billion people.

This is the case with Russia. You mentioned the US. Many people call the United States an inevitable country because of its geographical advantages. However, this is pure nonsense. When the modern economy derives from technological advances and industrial scale, this was true for the United States in the 19th century.

I'll tell you how the United States became an economic superpower: Post-World War II.

When World War II ended, Europe was destroyed, and Asia was literally under the control of the United States. Think of countries that were empires like Japan and Britain, countries with advanced industries like Germany, and countries that still had significant economic power like France. All of them emerged from World War II destroyed, while America emerged from that war virtually intact, with its continental territory untouched.

All of its industrial power remained relevant until the 1960s, when signs of economic and social decline began to emerge. At the same time, during the Cold War (1949-1989), the countries that emerged from World War II, which could have posed threats to the American Empire, became economic powerhouses, but not to the point of challenging American hegemony. This was because Washington maintained control over its vassals. Japan is the greatest example of this control, as it was the country that was ascending economically and technologically to the point of challenging American economic sovereignty worldwide. However, Reagan clipped Japan's wings, and since then, Japan has been surpassed even by Germany.

The remaining Third World countries that could have challenged American economic power ended up becoming communist or underdeveloped or inefficient economies. However, with the fall of the USSR in 1991, the true shift in the global economic order began. The destroyed World War II countries were already significant economies, while the Third World countries were rising economically, while American technological hegemony was eroded to the point that today China is at the forefront of global technological advancement.

Currently, with some emerging countries climbing the global economic hierarchy, American hegemonic power (including military power) is being eroded, and they no longer have as much absolute power as they did until recently. America will remain relevant because it is still an unequal struggle, decades old, since the end of World War II, but the world will be more different in the future than it was decades ago, and it is the Americans who will ultimately suffer the greatest geopolitical impact since World War II.

Unless they reinvent themselves as you believe they can, Americans will become increasingly decadent.
Yes, the trend is there, and you are correct to point to it; the usa has been on a decline since the 60s relative to the rest of thge world. However, it's not inevitable and could be reversed. First, the usa need to destroy the russian economy "through the ukraine war"; and the second, to destroy the chinese economy "through taiwan trap". Meanwhile, EU is being deindustrialized naturally. As for India, the usa can do what it did to Japan to india under the accusation of "mistreating ethnic and religious manorities".
 

Heresy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes, the trend is there, and you are correct to point to it; the usa has been on a decline since the 60s relative to the rest of thge world. However, it's not inevitable and could be reversed. First, the usa need to destroy the russian economy "through the ukraine war"; and the second, to destroy the chinese economy "through taiwan trap". Meanwhile, EU is being deindustrialized naturally. As for India, the usa can do what it did to Japan to india under the accusation of "mistreating ethnic and religious manorities".
Stop posting AI slop.
 
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