Chinese Economics Thread

In4ser

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I'm still in favor of massive implementation of state run boarding schools to take away a lot of the costs and energy raising kids from parents.

It works for poor rural backwaters and the economy of scale of a more centralized system will save money through bulk discount and publicly subsidized living accommodations. It will foster stronger bonds between students, with the state and perhaps even cut down on nepotistic favoritism?

Though it can be argued that its not be as healthy as biological parents raise the kids but having these schools nearby will allow weekend and holiday visits. Besides with how busy parents are these days, how much time and energy do they have any ways outside of those times?
 

ZeEa5KPul

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Not the demographics thing again. Even barring any rebound in TFR (which will naturally happen as population declines and wealth concentrates through inheritance), automation, robotics, AI, etc. will keep things speeding along before it becomes a problem, and genetically engineered ultramarines grown in artificial wombs will be a thing before it really becomes a problem.

As for immigration, the people you would want to move to your country are already successful, well-adjusted people living in highly functional societies; they have no reason to move. The people willing to move - with very few exceptions that China's current immigration policies adequately cover - aren't.
 

tphuang

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I strongly disagree with the notion that China needs to address its future labor shortage by importing low-to-mid-level workers. Given China's enormous population base, it would require immigration equivalent to the total population of a medium-sized country to fill the gap—a scenario that is entirely unfeasible and would provoke severe social conflicts. For a nation deeply rooted in its indigenous culture and society, China can only address its labor challenges through technological advancement and boosting its domestic birth rate. In the foreseeable future, China will only open limited immigration channels for top-tier talent in select industries.

So there are two issues here. K visa itself is for high tier talent, so I'm not sure what your first sentence is about.

As for lower quality jobs, you might want to actually go to China to see the situation on the ground. Nobody wants to do low level service jobs right now. The youths would much rather do waimai delivery or stay at home rather than working at certain restaurant jobs. So over time, you are going to see more Filipino nannies and other type of service workers from Southeast Asia for jobs that Chinese people just simply don't want to do.

This has already happened in Hong Kong, Japan and South Kore. Why do you think it would not happen on the mainland?

Go to HK central area on Sundays and you will just see how many Filipinos work in Hong Kong (Sunday is their day off)

Which STEM fields in which the US is competetive in would 100k/6yrs be too much to retain proven highly qualified top talent? Also keep in mind the high paying fields draw a substantially larger number of H1bs, and that lower paying fields suffer from having both a smaller pull for talent and are less likely to be competetive globally.


If an Indian engineer can objectively do a better job, he should absolutely get the job. I've met quite a few good Indian engineers at US tech companies. Problem is when subpar (ratio of good to poor is between 1:10 and 1:20) Indian workers crowd out other more competent candidates for jobs, and is exacerbated when the subpar engineers overrun the ranks of middle management. H1b engineers originating from India has destroyed the competitiveness and culture of many big US tech companies.
Again, this is something the market will decide.

There are plenty of good Indian engineers around. Whether they come to China or not is something that will be worked out by market.

But people need to remember that there is already a large effort by Chinese government to bring in foreign talent for research in elite Chinese universities. It's much better to do this in a formalized way with a Visa program that makes sense vs just doing it ad hoc.

There are plenty of research money for these people




I don't know if people on this thread have been to China recently. The quality of life is a lot higher in Beijing and Shanghai than most Western cities. In fact, I would consider moving back to Beijing if the opportunity presents itself.

Why do you people think that high talents with good salaries would not want to move there?
 

tphuang

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China reluctantly admitting they are not a developing country anymore.

That's because it's not a developing country anymore.

I talked to people in Beijing that came back from trips to Western Europe and they cannot believe who bad it is out there.

people on this thread need to go to China and see how good the locals in first tier cities have it.

You never have to wait for more than 5 minutes hailing the didi and it costs like $5 to go anywhere. Food delivery gets to you in under 30 minutes. Meals for a family of 4 can be as low as $30 in Beijing. For old buildings that are past their original designed age, the gov't will fork out the money to get its life extended. You don't have to pay a cent. The public transit is still 3 RMB per ticket. You can drive the nicest cars and HSR gets you around the country really cheaply and reliably. The health care system is great for most residents. And pension is enough for most people. I didn't see any old people having to work to supplement income (like I do here in America).
 

Nevermore

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It's important for China to establish this type of program now because China does have a TFR issue that will manifest. It's better to have a program for immigration ready before the crisis emerge rather than creating one after you realize you have a problem.
I was addressing this specific statement, but my response ended up connecting to other issues. Let me clarify: the recruitment of high-end talent typically accounts for only a tiny fraction of the total population. Especially given China's massive population base, the number of immigrants is practically negligible. Therefore, either recruiting overseas high-end talent cannot solve the labor shortage caused by low birth rates, or you might be implying the recruitment of mid-to-low-end talent.
 

tphuang

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I was addressing this specific statement, but my response ended up connecting to other issues. Let me clarify: the recruitment of high-end talent typically accounts for only a tiny fraction of the total population. Especially given China's massive population base, the number of immigrants is practically negligible. Therefore, either recruiting overseas high-end talent cannot solve the labor shortage caused by low birth rates, or you might be implying the recruitment of mid-to-low-end talent.
TFR issue long term will also mean that China won't have 5 million STEM grad a year, since not everyone wants to go into those professions

according to this
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, China is already 5 million short on AI sector talent.

So China in trying to drive the global science and engineering development is looking to recruit not just the very top end but also the tier below that.

I was explicitly told "China has dei for foreigners"

What do you think that means?

China is trying to suck every global STEM talent that it can get its hand on.
 

Nevermore

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TFR issue long term will also mean that China won't have 5 million STEM grad a year, since not everyone wants to go into those professions

according to this
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, China is already 5 million short on AI sector talent.

So China in trying to drive the global science and engineering development is looking to recruit not just the very top end but also the tier below that.

I was explicitly told "China has dei for foreigners"

What do you think that means?

China is trying to suck every global STEM talent that it can get its hand on.
The talent gap effect resembles a short-term imbalance between supply and demand for professionals. Since the AI industry has only gained prominence in recent years, sudden surges in demand or the emergence of entirely new innovation tracks can create massive talent shortages within this sector. These imbalances typically take several years or even a decade to gradually stabilize. Much like China's programming industry in the past: computer science was initially a field where graduates struggled to find employment. However, with the rapid growth of China's internet sector, programmers became one of the highest-earning professions. As the internet services industry gradually reached saturation, programmer talent began to oversupply, making the field highly competitive and prone to unemployment.
 
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