In 2023, the year of the most recent ICP update, the World Bank determined that China and Mexico had roughly equivalent per capita PPP GDPs, with China at $22,687 and Mexico’s at $21,905.
Lazy analysts like yours truly can only engage in vocal fits of hand-waving, declaring the results prima facie ridiculous. “Doggonit, just look at the skylines of the top 100 cities in China versus Mexico City!”
A more rigorous analyst would sift through a representative basket of goods and services, compare the per capita PPP dollar amount assigned by ICP and reconcile that with physical quantities consumed gleaned from other data sources.
Performing this exercise for China and Mexico results in the assigned dollar value of goods in China coming in at less than half the same good in Mexico. This is not supposed to happen when the ICP data is specifically PPP values.
While quality differences can certainly account for differences in PPP-derived prices, it is highly unlikely that Mexican food, cars, housing, electricity and education are two to four times superior to their Chinese versions.
Food is a matter of taste and no matter how many times you’ve read “Like Water for Chocolate”, Mexican food cannot possibly be three times as good as Chinese food.
It is also unclear how one kilowatt-hour of Mexican electricity can be twice as good as one kilowatt-hour of Chinese electricity. Ditto for a square meter of Mexican housing. And Mexican universities are four times the quality of Chinese universities? Really?
According to ICP data, the derived average price of cars sold in China in 2023 was $12,131, less than half that of Mexico. This is also less than half the price reported by third-party data providers like Autohome and derived from China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ retail sales data.
Somebody has been lowballing the value of cars sold in China by a factor of more than two. That same somebody has possibly perhaps probably very likely almost for certain also been lowballing the value of Chinese food, housing, electricity and education by similar factors.
Professor Guthmann, tracking a basket of 50 PPP line items reported by the ICP, estimates that adjusting for data incoherence based on China/Mexico statistics more than doubles China’s PPP consumption.
According to ICP data, China has lowballed not only services (university education by a factor of four) but also material goods (cars, housing and electricity by a factor of more than two).