Chinese Economics Thread

Han Patriot

Junior Member
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So there are two issues here. K visa itself is for high tier talent, so I'm not sure what your first sentence is about.

As for lower quality jobs, you might want to actually go to China to see the situation on the ground. Nobody wants to do low level service jobs right now. The youths would much rather do waimai delivery or stay at home rather than working at certain restaurant jobs. So over time, you are going to see more Filipino nannies and other type of service workers from Southeast Asia for jobs that Chinese people just simply don't want to do.

This has already happened in Hong Kong, Japan and South Kore. Why do you think it would not happen on the mainland?

Go to HK central area on Sundays and you will just see how many Filipinos work in Hong Kong (Sunday is their day off)


Again, this is something the market will decide.

There are plenty of good Indian engineers around. Whether they come to China or not is something that will be worked out by market.

But people need to remember that there is already a large effort by Chinese government to bring in foreign talent for research in elite Chinese universities. It's much better to do this in a formalized way with a Visa program that makes sense vs just doing it ad hoc.

There are plenty of research money for these people




I don't know if people on this thread have been to China recently. The quality of life is a lot higher in Beijing and Shanghai than most Western cities. In fact, I would consider moving back to Beijing if the opportunity presents itself.

Why do you people think that high talents with good salaries would not want to move there?
Alot of tier 2 or tier 3 cities also offer better living standards, less pollution and traffic with same quality infrastructure and amenities.
 

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
Have you considered that China's internet service industry is reaching saturation because it didn't buildup the domestic champions to support them in the first place? The idea is that if you can have all the AI talent or other leading tech talent, you should get that, because they create additional jobs for other industries.
I feel our conversation has been veering off topic at every turn, so I won't be responding to this issue further. While attracting global talent certainly helps boost competitiveness, there's an upper limit to talent demand within any specific industry branch—and ultimately, supply always exceeds demand. Many highly competitive industries within China already face talent oversupply. Take photovoltaics or other mature high-end manufacturing sectors—even domestic engineers sometimes struggle to find comfortable positions. Worse still, foreigners may end up taking jobs meant for locals, much like how global internet companies in the U.S. have talent absorption limits, leading to Indians and Chinese now taking American positions.
 

doggydogdo

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Any thoughts on China's
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? This could indicate that China's GDP, at purchasing power parity, is severely understated. No way are prices 80% of those in Hong Kong.

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This is what it would look like if you play with the share of HK's price level.
China price level (share of HK)​
PPP GDP per capita (intl $)​
Change vs 29,000​
70%​
≈ 33,143
+14.3%​
60%​
≈ 38,667
+33.3%​
50%​
≈ 46,400
+60.0%​
Yeah, it's fake, according to those numbers China is more expensive than Singapore and Taiwan lol.
 

Nevermore

Junior Member
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中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员杨水清24日告诉《环球时报》,中国这一宣示是一次精准、有限且自主的政策调整。她解释称,首先,中国这一决策的范围限定于“当前和未来谈判”,中国的承诺明确指向“新”的谈判。这意味着,中国在过去所有已达成并生效的WTO协定——如《农业协定》《补贴与反补贴措施协定》等——中所享有的所有特殊和差别待遇条款将完全保留。中国不寻求的是在尚未开始、且要求获得额外差别化待遇的谈判中的特殊和差别待遇权利。
Yang Shuiqing, associate researcher at the American Studies Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on the 24th that China's declaration represents a precise, limited, and autonomous policy adjustment. She explained that first, the scope of China's decision is confined to “current and future negotiations,” with its commitments explicitly targeting “new” negotiations. This implies that all special and differential treatment provisions China enjoys under previously concluded and effective WTO agreements—such as the Agreement on Agriculture and the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures—will remain fully intact. China is not seeking special and differential treatment rights in negotiations that have not yet commenced and that require additional differentiated treatment.
 

Moonscape

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, it's fake, according to those numbers China is more expensive than Singapore and Taiwan lol.

Yeah many sources have commented on it. China is probably deliberately sandbagging its data to appear weaker. "All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive." etc etc

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It is prima facie ridiculous that China’s production and consumption, at multiples of US levels, can be realistically discounted for lower quality/features to arrive at a mere 125% of US PPP GDP.


It’s not that we think the World Bank has done a bad job. It’s that we believe China’s NBS, contrary to popular opinion, has been lowballing GDP for decades and the World Bank has to work within the confines of the NBS’s reported data. This was politically important decades ago for WTO concessions and it is politically important today to maintain developing economy status as China makes a play for leadership of the Global South.


We believe China’s GDP and PPP GDP are lowballed by an incomplete transition from the Material Product System (MPS) of national accounts, which excludes services by design. The World Bank is likely dutifully doing its sums with goods consumption in China multiples of the US but measuring services consumption as a fraction of the US.


The United Nations System of National Accounts (UNSNA) provides voluntary guidelines and specifically states that nations should base their national accounts on local conditions. What that has meant in the West is to adopt all UNSNA “innovations” introduced over the years.


Items like imputed rent, legal fees and R&D are now all included in GDP. The UK went hog wild with both illegal drugs and prostitution as now part of their GDP because… hey, why not? UNSNA’s 2008 guidelines explicitly recommend that illegal market activity should be included in GDP.


China’s NBS stood its ground on a conceptual level. Rightly or wrongly, the Leninist MPS considers services necessary costs of material production rather than real value creation. In China’s first attempt at converting MPS to SNA in 1985, it tacked on a ludicrously low 13% to the MPS number and called it China’s services GDP.


Over the years, the World Bank has twisted the arm of the NBS for modest increases to China’s services GDP – with limited success.


The affordability crisis in Western economies, the US in particular, is largely driven by inflation of necessary services – rent, healthcare, education and childcare – not by manufactured goods. While these costs have also gone up in China, they have increased less and much are left out of GDP anyway.


Also not captured by the ICP survey conducted in 2021 are the price and service wars that have broken out across industries and products – a bane on businesses but a boon for consumers.


This is most visible in China’s car market with OEMs either cutting prices to the bone (Hyundai Sonatas down to $17,000 from $42,000) or offering cutting-edge technology for peanuts (a 2,000-kilometer range BYD Q plug-in hybrid electric vehicle for $14,000). The price of solar panels fell 50% in 2023 and continues to trend down in 2024. CATL has announced plans to cut lithium-ion battery prices in half by the end of 2024.


Restaurants are offering white glove perks like hot towels, lotion by the sink and snazzy remodeled decors. Hairdressers hand out bottled water and fruit plates. Tech companies have slashed large language model (LLM) prices to basically free. Service quality in China, impossible to quantify, is now head and shoulders above the West and probably even Japan.


Adherence to UNSNA has caused a breakdown in the meaning of GDP. As necessary services become an ever larger share of Western economies, their growth does not appear to result in discernable improvements in living standards.


Are US healthcare and universities twice as good as they were in the year 2000? If US households have not gotten vastly improved healthcare, education, housing and childcare over the past two decades, then inflation has been systematically underreported and GDP growth may have, in fact, been less than 1% per annum (instead of 2%), which equals stagnation given 0.8% per annum population growth. This may go a long way in explaining popular anger and the meltdown of American politics.

...

So how much is it? How big is China’s economy really? About six months ago, this writer estimated that China’s GDP needed to be grossed up by 25-40% to be on a UNSNA basis.


But after shopping for cars, buying a domestic brand carbon fiber road bike with all the bells and whistles for $2,600 (equivalent to a $15,000 Trek), paying $7.65 for Bluetooth earphones (much better than the $250 PowerBeats Pro they replaced), renting cars for $20 a day, staying at boutique hotels for $30 a night, buying an extremely solid heavy duty umbrella for $2.20 (and losing it right away) and undergoing an unfortunate series of medical interventions (both major and minor) for less than the deductible on expat health insurance and getting white glove customer service for the smallest of purchases, Han Feizi’s mental map of price and value has crumbled.


No, the ICP did not do a lousy job. They were hamstrung by the initial conditions that China’s NBS subjected them to. And the data released in 2024 was taken in 2021 – ancient history in China. The recent ICP adjustment of a few percentage points in China’s PPP GDP relative to the US elicited consternation from the NBS.


But the reality is an accurate adjustment would be of a multiple of two.
 

Moonscape

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually the same author just put out another article with more analysis of the ICP values. Comparing physics-based quantities strongly suggests that China is manipulating ICP data to make its PPP GDP look lower. E.g. Chinese people consumed twice the power per capita as Mexicans but their PPP utility spending was the same, which should not be the case as PPP is supposed to compare like-for-like.

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In 2023, the year of the most recent ICP update, the World Bank determined that China and Mexico had roughly equivalent per capita PPP GDPs, with China at $22,687 and Mexico’s at $21,905.

Lazy analysts like yours truly can only engage in vocal fits of hand-waving, declaring the results prima facie ridiculous. “Doggonit, just look at the skylines of the top 100 cities in China versus Mexico City!”

A more rigorous analyst would sift through a representative basket of goods and services, compare the per capita PPP dollar amount assigned by ICP and reconcile that with physical quantities consumed gleaned from other data sources.

Performing this exercise for China and Mexico results in the assigned dollar value of goods in China coming in at less than half the same good in Mexico. This is not supposed to happen when the ICP data is specifically PPP values.

Han-Feizi-Graphic-2.jpg

While quality differences can certainly account for differences in PPP-derived prices, it is highly unlikely that Mexican food, cars, housing, electricity and education are two to four times superior to their Chinese versions.

Food is a matter of taste and no matter how many times you’ve read “Like Water for Chocolate”, Mexican food cannot possibly be three times as good as Chinese food.

It is also unclear how one kilowatt-hour of Mexican electricity can be twice as good as one kilowatt-hour of Chinese electricity. Ditto for a square meter of Mexican housing. And Mexican universities are four times the quality of Chinese universities? Really?

According to ICP data, the derived average price of cars sold in China in 2023 was $12,131, less than half that of Mexico. This is also less than half the price reported by third-party data providers like Autohome and derived from China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ retail sales data.

Somebody has been lowballing the value of cars sold in China by a factor of more than two. That same somebody has possibly perhaps probably very likely almost for certain also been lowballing the value of Chinese food, housing, electricity and education by similar factors.

Professor Guthmann, tracking a basket of 50 PPP line items reported by the ICP, estimates that adjusting for data incoherence based on China/Mexico statistics more than doubles China’s PPP consumption.

According to ICP data, China has lowballed not only services (university education by a factor of four) but also material goods (cars, housing and electricity by a factor of more than two).
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Actually the same author just put out another article with more analysis of the ICP values. Comparing physics-based quantities strongly suggests that China is manipulating ICP data to make its PPP GDP look lower. E.g. Chinese people consumed twice the power per capita as Mexicans but their PPP utility spending was the same, which should not be the case as PPP is supposed to compare like-for-like.

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It was not China who cooked its data to look weaker. It was the west, the US in particular, who have been inflating their numbers to look stronger for geopolitical reasons. All these oddities in comparing the Chinese economy to other countries are because the USD has had its value severely skewed.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yeah many sources have commented on it. China is probably deliberately sandbagging its data to appear weaker. "All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive." etc etc

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Man this guy needs to STFU!
Stop bringing so much attention to China's GDP and PPP! He should just parrot Gordon Chang for crying out loud and stop asking questions!

Let china measure how they want to measure.
 
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