China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[gelgoog]

But it seems clearly have the capability of first strike

For that you need to have enough nukes to plaster the other side so they can't retaliate.

 

[Mearex]

For that you need to have enough nukes to plaster the other side so they can't retaliate.

the hardest part is preventing the other side's nuclear capable subs (SSBNs) from retaliating. Just having a lot of nukes alone isn't enough as they can hide deep underwater

 

[gelgoog]

It depends on a lot of factors including ABM capabilities. Which is why the Russians took the US leaving the ABM Treaty so seriously and developed so many counters.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

For that you need to have enough nukes to plaster the other side so they can't retaliate.

Then not even US and Russia can do that. The goal of the first strike is to strike first, not to annihilate the enemy to such an extant that they cannot retaliate. Because no one can do that. Assured second strike is the mechanism that makes MAD work. Without it, Nuclear strikes would have begun long ago.

 

[Mearex]

Then not even US and Russia can do that. The goal of the first strike is to strike first, not to annihilate the enemy to such an extant that they cannot retaliate. Because no one can do that. Assured second strike is the mechanism that makes MAD work. Without it, Nuclear strikes would have begun long ago.

that is the definition of first strike capability though. Hit the enemy so hard, and more importantly accurate, that it makes their retaliation either impossible or greatly reduced to a point where you deem acceptable. It's just a capability that's very hard to achieve, but if theoretically performed, it would be a preemptive surprise counterforce strike towards all of the enemy's nuclear weapons to ensure they cannot retaliate.

The reason MAD works is that currently no one possesses absolute first strike capability, so no one strikes first. In any case I feel like China should pursue first strike capability if it wants to become the dominant superpower

 

[tamsen_ikard]

that is the definition of first strike capability though. Hit the enemy so hard, and more importantly accurate, that it makes their retaliation either impossible or greatly reduced. It's just a capability that's very hard to achieve, but if theoretically performed, it would be a preemptive surprise counterforce strike towards all of the enemy's nuclear weapons to ensure they cannot retaliate.

But nuclear theory also says trying to achieve first strike capability that can completely annihilate your enemy is destabilizing. Cause it makes the enemy insecure and they might strike first if they think you are acquiring capability to neutralize their second strike capability. Then in turn it also incentivizes you to strike first cause you are worried about their insecurity. It becomes a spiral of anxiety.

 

[Mearex]

But nuclear theory also says trying to achieve first strike capability that can completely annihilate your enemy is destabilizing. Cause it makes the enemy insecure and they might strike first if they think you are acquiring capability to neutralize their second strike capability. Then in turn it also incentivizes you to strike first cause you are worried about their insecurity. It becomes a spiral of anxiety.

I believe that's only the case when you and your enemy both have first strike capabilities

 

[gelgoog]

Yes it is why arms control was invented in the first place. Until some idiots decided they were so powerful they did not need to bother with trifles like that.

 

[antiterror13]

that is the definition of first strike capability though. Hit the enemy so hard, and more importantly accurate, that it makes their retaliation either impossible or greatly reduced to a point where you deem acceptable. It's just a capability that's very hard to achieve, but if theoretically performed, it would be a preemptive surprise counterforce strike towards all of the enemy's nuclear weapons to ensure they cannot retaliate.

The reason MAD works is that currently no one possesses absolute first strike capability, so no one strikes first. In any case I feel like China should pursue first strike capability if it wants to become the dominant superpower

I don't think thats the definition of First strike. This is the definition from Copilot
"In nuclear strategy, first-strike capability refers to a nation's ability to launch a preemptive nuclear attack that can significantly cripple or destroy an adversary’s nuclear arsenal before that adversary can retaliate"

 

[Mearex]

I don't think thats the definition of First strike. This is the definition from Copilot
"In nuclear strategy, first-strike capability refers to a nation's ability to launch a preemptive nuclear attack that can significantly cripple or destroy an adversary’s nuclear arsenal before that adversary can retaliate"

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