Miscellaneous News

[plawolf]

You're right about the US is in end stage of empire, it's been obvious for some time. The US might try to go full pillage but that game will not work, folks will not accept imperialism anymore. It couldn't even hold together Iraq and Afghanistan, it won't be able to hold a vast empire through force.

It would be a mistake to directly compare Iraq to any coming wars (Afghanistan is its own category as no one has ever managed to pacify the place so I’m not holding that against the Americans).

In Iraq, America was burdened by its nation building and civilised force of good baggage. If they drop all pretences and focus exclusively on securing and extracting key resources, it’s actually a far smaller and easier task. Especially if they don’t care about openly doing war crimes and just Gaza any hotbeds of resistance and create zero-fucks-given free fire kill zones around their resource extraction facilities and transport routes.

It’s easier still if they forget about the resource extraction for themselves and merely settle for denying those resources to China, as in that case all they need to do is launch air and missile strikes on oil wells, refineries, transport infrastructure, ports and the like and don’t even need to put any boots on the ground.

They can also play good cop bad cop with their vassals where America drops the hammer on countries to topple governments that trade with China and Japanese and European companies come in after to take over the resource extraction in name while 90% of the profits and resources gets sent to America as tribute.

Armed local resistance will also be hard for China to support, especially in Latin America, as the logistics challenges and tyranny of distance takes its toll.

If America wants to break bad and be the bad guy, they can achieve far more than during the days when they still played by the rules of civilised states. Just like how Germany and Japan managed to conquer so much initially.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It would be a mistake to directly compare Iraq to any coming wars (Afghanistan is its own category as no one has ever managed to pacify the place so I’m not holding that against the Americans).

In Iraq, America was burdened by its nation building and civilised force of good baggage. If they drop all pretences and focus exclusively on securing and extracting key resources, it’s actually a far smaller and easier task. Especially if they don’t care about openly doing war crimes and just Gaza any hotbeds of resistance and create zero-fucks-given free fire kill zones around their resource extraction facilities and transport routes.

It’s easier still if they forget about the resource extraction for themselves and merely settle for denying those resources to China, as in that case all they need to do is launch air and missile strikes on oil wells, refineries, transport infrastructure, ports and the like and don’t even need to put any boots on the ground.

They can also play good cop bad cop with their vassals where America drops the hammer on countries to topple governments that trade with China and Japanese and European companies come in after to take over the resource extraction in name while 90% of the profits and resources gets sent to America as tribute.

Armed local resistance will also be hard for China to support, especially in Latin America, as the logistics challenges and tyranny of distance takes its toll.

If America wants to break bad and be the bad guy, they can achieve far more than during the days when they still played by the rules of civilised states. Just like how Germany and Japan managed to conquer so much initially.

If we're in zero fucks given mode and all the rules are out of the window, China will launch nuclear strikes on American forces deployed abroad.

Actually, it doesn't need to go as far as that. The US cried uncle just because China sort of restricted some rare earth exports. Just imagine what a complete ban on not just rare earth exports, but all materials like superabrasives, pharmaceutical inputs, etc. would do to the US.

 

[Africablack]

It would be a mistake to directly compare Iraq to any coming wars (Afghanistan is its own category as no one has ever managed to pacify the place so I’m not holding that against the Americans).

In Iraq, America was burdened by its nation building and civilised force of good baggage. If they drop all pretences and focus exclusively on securing and extracting key resources, it’s actually a far smaller and easier task. Especially if they don’t care about openly doing war crimes and just Gaza any hotbeds of resistance and create zero-fucks-given free fire kill zones around their resource extraction facilities and transport routes.

It’s easier still if they forget about the resource extraction for themselves and merely settle for denying those resources to China, as in that case all they need to do is launch air and missile strikes on oil wells, refineries, transport infrastructure, ports and the like and don’t even need to put any boots on the ground.

They can also play good cop bad cop with their vassals where America drops the hammer on countries to topple governments that trade with China and Japanese and European companies come in after to take over the resource extraction in name while 90% of the profits and resources gets sent to America as tribute.

Armed local resistance will also be hard for China to support, especially in Latin America, as the logistics challenges and tyranny of distance takes its toll.

If America wants to break bad and be the bad guy, they can achieve far more than during the days when they still played by the rules of civilised states. Just like how Germany and Japan managed to conquer so much initially.

If the US plays that game they've lost. Most of these countries have China as their main trade partner and any major disruptions to trade will be felt by the local population and they won't take kindly to a sudden drop in living standards. Super powers can play this game when they are numero uno, not when they've been relegated to number 2. The US is catching flak for supporting Israel today just imagine what will happen if it directly intervenes for the purpose of resource extraction?

 

[plawolf]

If we're in zero fucks given mode and all the rules are out of the window, China will launch nuclear strikes on American forces deployed abroad.

That would be the kind of emotional mistakes that costs China the win.

China would be in the winning position globally, meaning it will have far more assets of greater value abroad than America. America would gladly trade its handful of assets for all of China’s.

The key to victory in that scenario is for China to keep its cool and continue to play its game, rather be distracted by America into play to America’s strengths.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

That would be the kind of emotional mistakes that costs China the win.

China would be in the winning position globally, meaning it will have far more assets of greater value abroad than America. America would gladly trade its handful of assets for all of China’s.

The key to victory in that scenario is for China to keep its cool and continue to play its game, rather be distracted by America into play to America’s strengths.

In your scenario the US is out and out destroying all Chinese assets abroad, damn the torpedoes. There's no playing it cool there, at minimum China must embargo all exports to the US (which means a global embargo so no transshipment is possible) of crucial materials like REEs, superabrasives, active pharmaceutical ingredients, semiconductor inputs (in fact, China should bomb TSMC in that case so it can no longer export chips to the US), etc.

You don't respond to a World War but cautiously husbanding a position, you attack.

 

[plawolf]

If the US plays that game they've lost. Most of these countries have China as their main trade partner and any major disruptions to trade will be felt by the local population and they won't take kindly to a sudden drop in living standards. Super powers can play this game when they are numero uno, not when they've been relegated to number 2. The US is catching flak for supporting Israel today just imagine what will happen if it directly intervenes for the purpose of resource extraction?

No2 globally can still be No1 regionally, case in point the current disposition between America and China.

As for local population sentiment. I’m pretty sure none of the general populations in the ME likes what Israel is doing, with many of them suffering directly and terribly as a result, but what exactly have they done about it? More to the point, what can they do about it in the face of overwhelming military force and zero qualms about using that force against unarmed civilians indiscriminately? How many carrier battle groups is your collective popular outrage worth when the chips are down and the bombs start dropping?

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961368780673572967

 

[plawolf]

In your scenario the US is out and out destroying all Chinese assets abroad, damn the torpedoes. There's no playing it cool there, at minimum China must embargo all exports to the US (which means a global embargo so no transshipment is possible) of crucial materials like REEs, superabrasives, active pharmaceutical ingredients, semiconductor inputs (in fact, China should bomb TSMC in that case so it can no longer export chips to the US), etc.

You don't respond to a World War but cautiously husbanding a position, you attack.

Whoever said anything about not responding?

The key is that China needs to pick and choose where it fights and when it spends its resources.

Your response is actually a mirror of the current loosing American strategy where it has trapped itself into thinking it needs to respond to every Chinese gain and advancement everywhere. All that has meant is that America has massively overextended itself and run itself ragged trying to do too much all at once and wasting its resources and strengths trying to force reversals where China enjoys overwhelming leverage advantages.

The only way America wins at that stage is if it can bait China into making that same mistake and squandering its strength and resources fighting where America holds the overwhelming advantage.

As I said before, China’s best strategy in that scenario would be to secure what it has got close at home first and firmly, and then push out slowly but steadily as a general approach. First pull immediate neighbours into new security alliances that China actually have the hard power to protect at reasonable cost, and then use those new allied territories as staging posts and jumping boards to secure more territory and resources further away. Apply that strategy to its logical conclusion and China will be able to secure the Eurasia world island and control the overwhelming majority of populations and resources on earth. America taking the Americas will just lock them into the loosing position with no way to turn the tables and once Chinese industrial and technological advantages grows large enough to remove US nuclear MAD as an option, then the conquest of the Americas can commence. If China is minded to do so. It can just as easily quarantine America and wait for its empire to crumble internally.

Going bananas and dropping nukes first will just give America the perfect pretext to nuke China’s neighbours as a firebreak against such a Chinese breakout.

 

[Lethe]

Currently in China

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961768478278390141

This photo

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from the 2017 BRICS summit in Xiamen.

 

[Africablack]

No2 globally can still be No1 regionally, case in point the current disposition between America and China.

As for local population sentiment. I’m pretty sure none of the general populations in the ME likes what Israel is doing, with many of them suffering directly and terribly as a result, but what exactly have they done about it? More to the point, what can they do about it in the face of overwhelming military force and zero qualms about using that force against unarmed civilians indiscriminately? How many carrier battle groups is your collective popular outrage worth when the chips are down and the bombs start dropping?

I think you're underestimating the current mood of people of the world, I think that's the same mistake the US is making as well. So the US invades Venezuela, overthrows Maduro and turns the country into a vassal. People will accept that and not give the US a hard time? Okay, say they are pacified and don't revolt or anything, they'll accept lower standard of living? Where do you think they'll want to migrate to? You think the US will drop bombs? I don't think so. The US has a population that won't tolerate it and it will tear itself apart of they resort to brutal tactics. The US needs to accept reality and adjust to the new order.