China's SCS Strategy Thread

[MortyandRick]

Yes, and have several Burkes slammed by cargo ships whilst the crew falling asleep. Not to mention the best SSN hitting rock in the middle of the South China Sea, and a LHD catching fire mysteriously whilst docking at home port.

Nonetheless serious mistakes made by adversaries do not justify similar mistakes at home, particularly in the middle of a non-violent confrontation against adversaries in disputed territories. Having said that, I am against punishing frontline sailors and officers for simply following orders. But whoever gave the order that lead to the tragic end we see must face consequences. It is about accountability to citizens, as well as deterrence against adversaries. Otherwise, what gives adversaries reasons to fear the PLA? Ex., if the Taiwanese and JMSDF start believing all PLAN sailors and officers were incompetent and dumb, than war would indeed by unavoidable due to their miscalculations. It would be MacArthur and the 38th Parallel again.

Disagree. This is not a "similar mistake". This pales in comparison to those numerous US mistakes.

We are talking about a high speed chase where different ships try to ram and catch the other. That's high stakes. China already has warships across the entire SCS. Something was bound to happen, especially since this has been going on for 10 years.

I couldn't care less what Taiwan and JDSF thinks about the PLAN competency. Joining or not joining the war will be determined by the US. They can underestimate the PLAN at their own peril.

I'm dismayed at the Chinese peoples reaction, if this event really makes them lose hope so quickly. Again need to have thick skin and change their mentality if china truly becomes strong. Loses are part of that strategy.

Otherwise, if there is a war over Taiwan, and PLAN has more losses, how would the citizens cope? Would they try to overthrow the govt at the first signs of loss?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

So might makes right? China gets to claim the entire sea as its own if it can?

How else do you think English become the global lingua franca today? Selfless kindness and compassion?

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

. Even the most patriotic individuals feel disheartened (not to mention liberals, west worshippers, Han nationalists, Maoists, russophiles, etc.)

Not to go OT, but there are Han nationalists? What do they want?

 

[Engineer]

Well in that case by your definition, there is no "real consequence" because no PLAN ship is ever going to be cleared to use lethal force in this situation.

We already agree that we are in agreement concerning this.

Incorrect.
I said that I cannot rule out the possibility that the CO was at fault -- i.e.: it could be the fault of the CO, but it could be the fault of other factors (for example, as I subsequently have written it is possible that the ROEs themselves are at fault).

In other words, what I wrote is that people should not rule out the possibility that the CO is at fault.




Actually I think it is quite productive to have a discussion about how this unique event came to pass.
Certainly one would expect the PLAN itself is doing an after action analysis, so for us it is quite reasonable to try and make some educated speculation about where the plausible breakdowns in either command, ROE or decision making occurred.





Well to use your phrase -- "I am simply writing what I observed".

As for what you've then written -- I'm not sure what the PCG has to do with this. We are talking about the PLAN and CCG's decision making which led the destroyer to be in this situation and which led the event to occur. The actions of the PCG is irrelevant, because the PLAN should have had rules of engagement to manage such situations and contingencies in a manner which does not result in a destroyer literally being in the face of physical collission.

Uh no. The actions of the PCG ship is very much relevant by the fact that they were interacting with Chinese ships. If the PCG ship didn't show up at all, this incident would never have occurred. By your own reasoning, the actions of Chinese ships should be irrelevant here since they are all covered by rule of engagement and contigency plans, leaving PCG ship as the unknown variable.

Putting this more simply -- someone on the PLAN side made a mistake. Either it's politicians for setting unrealistic objectives, or high level officers for setting poor ROEs, or breakdowns in understanding of ROEs or orders, or the CO of the ship being gung-ho, there is going to be at least one element on the PLAN/PRC side who made a mistake.

Thus, circling back to the "we cannot rule out the possibility that the CO was at fault" -- it is another way of saying that we cannot rule out any of the other elements aforementioned on the PLAN/PRC side are at fault, including the CO.

We cannot rule out a powerful cosmic ray temporary disabling the control system on the Chinese ships either. So?

The Chinese side could have done everything right and still ended up in a collision. There is no dichotomy here. This is just life, especially on the frontline.

 

[Wrought]

Not to go OT, but there are Han nationalists? What do they want?

The same things as every other ethnonationalist group in the world. Like regular nationalists, but even more racist.

 

[Blitzo]

We already agree that we are in agreement concerning this.

Fine, that can be left there.

Uh no. The actions of the PCG ship is very much relevant by the fact that they were interacting with Chinese ships. If the PCG ship didn't show up at all, this incident would never have occurred. By your own reasoning, the actions of Chinese ships should be irrelevant here since they are all covered by rule of engagement and contigency plans, leaving PCG ship as the unknown variable.


We cannot rule out a powerful cosmic ray temporary disabling the control system on the Chinese ships either. So?

The Chinese side could have done everything right and still ended up in a collision. There is no dichotomy here. This is just life, especially on the frontline.

The Chinese side is the one that had a naval destroyer as part of the fray, so no, the onus is very much on them to be expected to not have a destroyer be in a situation where it can be part of a collision.

There are any number of areas in which the Chinese side could have made a mistake, whether it is overarching rules of engagement, to relay of commands, to competency of personnel or CO.
If the PCG's movements were insufficiently accounted for in existing ROEs then that is a problem with the ROEs, but ultimately still a problem on the Chinese side for being insufficiently forward thinking, as "aggressive movements and provocations of opposing coast guard vessels" should be one of the most basic and fundamental things to account for in these SCS tussles.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

China's biggest problem in foreign policy has always been naivety and conservatism. They essentially believed too much about the "international system" and "rules based order". They just didn't think vitriol and hatred are a big part of foreign policy as well. They probably never thought philippines will be this aggressive in its pursuit of anti-china policies.

They constantly underestimated the anti-china hatred in the west and us vassal countries in the east.

Whether its canada, australia, korea, philippines there has been a constant failure of imagination of how much they hate China.

Anyways, hopefully they learn lessons and start to realize that taking more assertive position and action is the best way forward. Hopefully we will see wolf warrior 2.0

 

[august1]

China's biggest problem in foreign policy has always been naivety and conservatism. They essentially believed too much about the "international system" and "rules based order". They just didn't think vitriol and hatred are a big part of foreign policy as well. They probably never thought philippines will be this aggressive in its pursuit of anti-china policies.

They constantly underestimated the anti-china hatred in the west and us vassal countries in the east.

Whether its canada, australia, korea, philippines there has been a constant failure of imagination of how much they hate China.

Anyways, hopefully they learn lessons and start to realize that taking more assertive position and action is the best way forward. Hopefully we will see wolf warrior 2.0

I don't blame them. This is how Chinese people who haven't lived abroad think in general. They believe the world is full of China-loving laowais or agnostic laowais that will love China if they would only come and see it for themselves.

 

[cft4201]

The problem is the Chinese populous has been fed way too many narrative (sometimes by people who claim to be "military experts" on popular social media platforms) about how the PLA is invincible and cannot make any mistakes, setting unrealistic expectations. So whenever anything negative happens even in the slightest a lot of people take it as the end of the world.

Maybe it's also time for the top brass to reconsider what narratives that official propaganda will broadcast. To not be afraid to showcase and frame more realistic scenarios. And at the same time crack down on slop channels that cultivate the belief of invincibility in the first place.

 

[AsuraGodFiend]

The problem is the Chinese populous has been fed way too many narrative (sometimes by people who claim to be "military experts" on popular social media platforms) about how the PLA is invincible and cannot make any mistakes, setting unrealistic expectations. So whenever anything negative happens even in the slightest a lot of people take it as the end of the world.

Maybe it's also time for the top brass to reconsider what narratives that official propaganda will broadcast. To not be afraid to showcase and frame more realistic scenarios. And at the same time crack down on slop channels that cultivate the belief of invincibility in the first place.

That dangerous wtf what are those slop channels doing are they retarded