China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AsuraGodFiend]

You can always go to r/noncredibledefense for palatable view points.

That and r/military is just western circle jerk

 

[Wrought]

I'm frankly more embarrassed by the way you folks are getting baited by such a low-effort troll. Recycled regurgitated talking points are not worth getting upset over. At the end of the day, everyone here is simply an observer of events on the ground. You can cheer or cry, scream or shout, whatever. Your personal emotions are irrelevant. You are are insignificant nobody.

Now is probably the best time for China within the past hundred years, and if you lack the equanimity to accept this faux pas in that context, then you are frankly an immature entitled toddler. And if that's not enough, then comfort yourself with the fact that people like him have been forced to watch helplessly as China has grown ever more powerful every year of their lives. Just like they will next year, and the year after that, and the year after that, hoping and praying and begging that God himself will flip a switch and magically make China collapse and disappear and go away like the evil monster under the bed. But all the coping and seething in the world does not change reality.

 

[4Tran]

I don't see it as a humiliation.
The west and Phillipines want to make it look like a huge humiliation, but it's not.

Mistakes happen and I'm proud of china for continuing to defend national interests. So what, mistakes happen. Adjust for the future. In the end, looking at the map, China has control of most of the SCS with warships as well. That doesn't come by being incompetent. Chinese people need to have thick skin in this game.

But you know what else can be humiliating, flying a spy drone around Iran to only have it intercepted and taken by the Iranians. Then having having the audacity to ask for it back.

Spending trillions I'm Afghanistan only to run away.

Making a bit news splash about defeating the Houthis only to lose 2 planes and retreating.

The Americans lost 3 Super Hornets: one to friendly fire, one from dodging Houthi missiles, and one from a snapped arrestor cable.

Yeah, this incident is being way overblown. Yes, it's awful anytime there are avoidable casualties but these are going to happen in a military, and what's important is to fix the errors so they don't get repeated. The only other loss is a bit of damage to a couple of ships, and this would be easy for China's shipyards to repair. There is no long term loss of capability and there is no real damage to either the PLAN or the Coast Guard.

 

[Engineer]

You asked about "real consequences". If you are rating "use of lethal force" as the only means of fuilfilling that criteria, then I don't think we have any basis to continue this element of discussion.

That is pretty much the only real consequence there is. The other one which we discussed does not seem to be a major concern to the Filipino crew (given that they were in control of their situation), even though it may be a concern to you.

I did not "pin the blame entirely on the destroyer's CO" -- I said that we cannot rule out the possibility that the CO was at fault.

On the contrary I don't think we are wasting our time -- you seem to be trying to come up with any number of scenarios in which the destroyer could have justified its presence in this fray.

Instead, the safest and most logical way for a proper naval destroyer to be utilized in this setting to be at standoff distances and avoid physical engagement to begin with. Their job isn't to play bumper boats in these situations, it is to provide overwatch and to keep a safe distance, and yes that means to run away if needed.

No, that scenario very much remains viable.
I am saying that the destroyer should not have been in that situation in the first place, and the fact that it was in that situation is either the fault of bad rules of engagement, or the CO's poor judgement or outright disobeying rules of engagement (aka CO being gung-ho).

Between the options of "bad rules of engagement" versus "CO poor judgement/disobeying rules of engagement" (aka CO being gung-ho), the more concerning option would be the "bad rules of engagement" possibility.

If it was a CO making a poor judgement then that is not necessarily a huge issue, as the CO can simply be replaced. If it is bad rules of engagement, then it means the high level commanders and even politicians are at fault.

You say here that you aren't pinning the blame entirely on the destroyer's CO, then immediately try to pin the blame on the destroyer's CO. Somehow you see the CO being at fault for doing X (without evidences to boot) but also for doing opposite of X. I am simply writing what I observed.

We both agree that the destroyer staying as an observer should be an ideal situation, however the ideal situation didn't happen. Lamenting about what should have happened is not going to move this discussion forward, neither is coming up with ever more ridiculous expectation for the destroyer's crew to meet.

Your argument seems to be the "bad rules of engagement" possibility then, in which case you've opted to choose for the far more concerning option which is that systemically the PLAN command have poor judgement in the manner with which to utilize their primary high end surface combatants in context of these grey zone bumper boat maritime disputes.

No. Quit putting words in my mouth.

My position is simply following the Occam's Razor — assume the crew involved have been following their respective SOPs unless there are actual evidences showing otherwise. In this instance, since PCG is the one trying to breach the perimeter, that would make them the more aggressive party by default, and that means they have a higher likelihood of resorting to creative tactics. Thus my argument is that it was more likely for the PCG to have brought the situation to the destroyer than it was for the destroyer to actively seek the situation.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I'm frankly more embarrassed by the way you folks are getting baited by such a low-effort troll. Recycled regurgitated talking points are not worth getting upset over. At the end of the day, everyone here is simply an observer of events on the ground. You can cheer or cry, scream or shout, whatever. Your personal emotions are irrelevant. You are are insignificant nobody.

Now is probably the best time for China within the past hundred years, and if you lack the equanimity to accept this faux pas in that context, then you are frankly an immature entitled toddler. And if that's not enough, then comfort yourself with the fact that people like him have been forced to watch helplessly as China has grown ever more powerful every year of their lives. All the coping and seething in the world does not change reality.

That’s my point exactly. I don’t understand the huge fuss and outcry over this. Do the people criticizing this never make any costly mistakes in their own line of work? PLA/Chinese leadership/soldiers are human. Being human means they screw things up, some times royally.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

Unfortunately, this is probably impossible. Not to mention that the government is unlikely to publicly lower itself to incite and pander to populism (the last time they did so, it backfired badly, and traditional Chinese governments are known for being “unpredictable”), current public opinion is more inclined to condemn the government's weakness and military operational mistakes rather than targeting traitors and collaborators (as mocked in the ship collision incident). The impact of this incident has been so severe that even the most patriotic individuals feel disheartened and lack the confidence to engage in debates with pro-Western collaborators. Additionally, from the perspective of Maoist views, I do not believe they would make comments defending the government in this matter.

True. Even the most patriotic individuals feel disheartened (not to mention liberals, west worshippers, Han nationalists, Maoists, russophiles, etc.) because whoever gave that order to DDG-164 Guilin initiated the sequence of events ultimately ended in the current tragedy. No doubt it is a massive f-up by the PLAN (lesser extent, CCG). For the government to try covering up even after the whole nation already knows about it is just clownish behaviour. Now, the patriots will likely demand not only punishment for the commander/commissar who gave orders to DDG-164, but also those involved in censorships and coverups. Guess what, now the PLA (or CMC/CPC as a whole, ultimately the Chairman of CMC himself) is losing even more face that it already did because of the obviously failed - and continuously failing - coverup.

If you intend on hiding something, don't try to do it when everyone already sees it, not to mention your adversary clears enjoys the upper hand by providing irrefutable evidence showing your defeat.

 

[Engineer]

So might makes right? China gets to claim the entire sea as its own if it can?

The Western media claimed the sea on behalf of China.

 

[Wrought]

So might makes right? China gets to claim the entire sea as its own if it can?

Where do you think the concept of

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came from? Laws ultimately derive from power; the power to say this is mine and prove it so.

"For that it is by the law of nations, no Prince can challenge further into the sea than he can command with a cannon except gulfs within their land from one point to another."

So it was said in 1610, and so it has remained ever since.

 

[4Tran]

So might makes right? China gets to claim the entire sea as its own if it can?

Being able to push other countries around is the point of being a superpower. If you don't like it, you can either negotiate the claims or try to fight them. Note that basically every nation in the South China Sea region other than Philippines has already made a deal with China.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

I don't see it as a humiliation.
The west and Phillipines want to make it look like a huge humiliation, but it's not.

Mistakes happen and I'm proud of china for continuing to defend national interests. So what, mistakes happen. Adjust for the future. In the end, looking at the map, China has control of most of the SCS with warships as well. That doesn't come by being incompetent. Chinese people need to have thick skin in this game.

But you know what else can be humiliating, flying a spy drone around Iran to only have it intercepted and taken by the Iranians. Then having having the audacity to ask for it back.

Spending trillions I'm Afghanistan only to run away.

Making a bit news splash about defeating the Houthis only to lose 2 planes and retreating.

Yes, and have several Burkes slammed by cargo ships whilst the crew falling asleep. Not to mention the best SSN hitting rock in the middle of the South China Sea, and a LHD catching fire mysteriously whilst docking at home port.

Nonetheless serious mistakes made by adversaries do not justify similar mistakes at home, particularly in the middle of a non-violent confrontation against adversaries in disputed territories. Having said that, I am against punishing frontline sailors and officers for simply following orders. But whoever gave the order that lead to the tragic end we see must face consequences. It is about accountability to citizens, as well as deterrence against adversaries. Otherwise, what gives adversaries reasons to fear the PLA? Ex., if the Taiwanese and JMSDF start believing all PLAN sailors and officers were incompetent and dumb, than war would indeed by unavoidable due to their miscalculations. It would be MacArthur and the 38th Parallel again.