China's SCS Strategy Thread

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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True. Even the most patriotic individuals feel disheartened (not to mention liberals, west worshippers, Han nationalists, Maoists, russophiles, etc.) because whoever gave that order to DDG-164 Guilin initiated the sequence of events that ultimately ended in such tragedy. No doubt it is a massive f-up by the PLAN (lesser extent, CCG). For the government to try covering up even after the whole nation already knows about it is just clownish behaviour. Now, the patriots will likely demand not only punishment for the commander/commissar who gave orders to DDG-164, but also those involved in censorships and coverups. Guess what, now the PLA (or CMC/CPC as a whole, ultimately the Chairman of CMC himself himself) is losing even more face that it already did because of the obviously failed - and kept failing - coverup.

If you intend on hiding something, do try to do it when everyone already sees it, not to mention your adversary clears enjoys the upper hand by providing irrefutable evidence showing your defeat.

I beg to differ. In one or two weeks time all the folks blowing their gasket about the collision today would have found something else to be either outraged by or feel jubilant about. People who spend that much time on social media, whether it be China or elsewhere, have low attention span and are not serious people. I highly doubt that their opinions are factored into high level decision making. If that were the case China would’ve probably nuked New Delhi back in May 2020. These are not mature people we are talking about here.
 

Blitzo

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That is pretty much the only real consequence there is. The other one which we discussed does not seem to be a major concern to the Filipino crew (given that they were in control of their situation), even though it may be a concern to you.

Well in that case by your definition, there is no "real consequence" because no PLAN ship is ever going to be cleared to use lethal force in this situation.

You say here that you aren't pinning the blame entirely on the destroyer's CO, then immediately try to pin the blame on the destroyer's CO. Somehow you see the CO being at fault for doing X (without evidences to boot) but also for doing opposite of X. I am simply writing what I observed.

Incorrect.
I said that I cannot rule out the possibility that the CO was at fault -- i.e.: it could be the fault of the CO, but it could be the fault of other factors (for example, as I subsequently have written it is possible that the ROEs themselves are at fault).

In other words, what I wrote is that people should not rule out the possibility that the CO is at fault.


We both agree that the destroyer staying as an observer should be an ideal situation, however the ideal situation didn't happen. Lamenting about what should have happened is not going to move this discussion forward, neither is coming up with ever more ridiculous expectation for the destroyer's crew to meet.

Actually I think it is quite productive to have a discussion about how this unique event came to pass.
Certainly one would expect the PLAN itself is doing an after action analysis, so for us it is quite reasonable to try and make some educated speculation about where the plausible breakdowns in either command, ROE or decision making occurred.



No. Quit putting words in my mouth.

My position is simply following the Occam's Razor — assume the crew involved have been following their respective SOPs unless there are actual evidences showing otherwise. In this instance, since PCG is the one trying to breach the perimeter, that would make them the more aggressive party by default, and that means they have a higher likelihood of resorting to creative tactics. Thus my argument is that it was more likely for the PCG to have brought the situation to the destroyer than it was for the destroyer to actively seek the situation.

Well to use your phrase -- "I am simply writing what I observed".

As for what you've then written -- I'm not sure what the PCG has to do with this. We are talking about the PLAN and CCG's decision making which led the destroyer to be in this situation and which led the event to occur. The actions of the PCG is irrelevant, because the PLAN should have had rules of engagement to manage such situations and contingencies in a manner which does not result in a destroyer literally being in the face of physical collission.

Putting this more simply -- someone on the PLAN side made a mistake. Either it's politicians for setting unrealistic objectives, or high level officers for setting poor ROEs, or breakdowns in understanding of ROEs or orders, or the CO of the ship being gung-ho, there is going to be at least one element on the PLAN/PRC side who made a mistake.
Thus, circling back to the "we cannot rule out the possibility that the CO was at fault" -- it is another way of saying that we cannot rule out any of the other elements aforementioned on the PLAN/PRC side are at fault, including the CO.
 

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
I beg to differ. In one or two weeks time all the folks blowing their gasket about the collision today would have found something else to be either outraged by or feel jubilant about. People who spend that much time on social media, whether it be China or elsewhere, have low attention span and are not serious people. I highly doubt that their opinions are factored into high level decision making. If that were the case China would’ve probably nuked New Delhi back in May 2020. These are not mature people we are talking about here.

How long do you think it will take for the CCG to release its casualty count? It took several months for the PLA to release the Galwan Valley count.
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
I beg to differ. In one or two weeks time all the folks blowing their gasket about the collision today would have found something else to be either outraged by or feel jubilant about. People who spend that much time on social media, whether it be China or elsewhere, have low attention span and are not serious people. I highly doubt that their opinions are factored into high level decision making. If that were the case China would’ve probably nuked New Delhi back in May 2020. These are not mature people we are talking about here.
But you have to say, government covering up when everyone knows about it doesn't paint the government in good light but instead as opaque, untrustworthy and not willing to own up to its mistakes especially when there are likely casualties on top of being incompetent with this accident. Its playing right into western portrayal of the Chinese government.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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But you have to say, government covering up when everyone knows about it doesn't paint the government in good light but instead as opaque, untrustworthy and not willing to own up to its mistakes especially when there are likely casualties. It’s playing right into western portrayal of the Chinese government.

Probably not as big of a deal as you think. Western portrayal of Chinese government has been negative for the past three decades and since Covid has gone pretty much full retard. There is no place to go but up from the nadir.
 

Fully Compliant

New Member
Registered Member
Being able to push other countries around is the point of being a superpower. If you don't like it, you can either negotiate the claims or try to fight them. Note that basically every nation in the South China Sea region other than Philippines has already made a deal with China.
Duh. That's why you'll never, ever hear anyone here complain about the US rampaging around the world.

More seriously, China's military secrecy and histrionic nationalist responses make them seem emotionally brittle and insecure to Western eyes, so it's obviously pretty funny for internet nerds to linger on this but, as has been pointed out, accidents happen to all navies and they're bound to be more visible as the tempo of operations increase.
 

votran

Junior Member
Registered Member
But you have to say, government covering up when everyone knows about it doesn't paint the government in good light but instead as opaque, untrustworthy and not willing to own up to its mistakes especially when there are likely casualties on top of being incompetent with this accident. Its playing right into western portrayal of the Chinese government.
i alway wonder what gonna happen if one day china chance and grant all those haters their wishes

become the ruthless demon they often pain china are

people and gov become so ruthless self-confidence to the point they start wearing old mistake as badge of honor

for example the common china insult by those haters for years was tiananmen square 1989 : image the shock the tears of those hater when one day they suddenly see deepseek , chinese wiki , website , chinese populations , grovernment all laugh at their face and answer :

what happen in tiananmen square 1989 ? lol a good traitors turkey shoot day

by granted their wishes there are no need for water cannon and ramming anymore

with the world hook too deep with china economy like today include US and the west . will they have the real balls to offically cut china off like they did with cuba NK and iran ?
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm really out this time. I'll be back next time a PLAN ship rams another Chinese ship in the international waters of The West Philippine Sea (or East Sea as its called in Vietnam). :p

A little disappointed that you won't even acknowledge your highly esteemed
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, Dr. Koh! :confused:

Someone must be feeling too ashamed of their reputation (1, 2, 3, 4), and too afraid of the judgmental teenagers here to put their name in front of the false virtues, out of touch ideals and nonsensical proposals they espouse. :cool:

Will you be back in Manila this November? We can chat about the South China Sea over some beers and pulutan if this place makes you shy. ;)

P.S. Not the first to publicly identify you, plus you're a public figure by choice. So don't you cry about the "CCP doxing you." :p
 
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