China's SCS Strategy Thread

[zyklon]

just a short raid to teach them a lession is enough , blow up all their sea worthy ship , military high value aircraft then left what they gonna do ?

What will that accomplish?

invite US in to set up military base/missle/weapon ?

they already did that

The US military does not maintain a permanent presence in the Philippines these days — definitely nothing comparable to the USFK and USFJ footprints in South Korea and Japan, respectively — and it'd be reckless to gift Manila and Washington the political capital needed for Subic Bay to effectively host major USN and/or USCG combat vessels permanently or something to that extent.

china doesn't need an all out invasion , also philipines can't do crap toward china after getting their ass kick

If the PLA is to go kinetic — or more precisely, explosive — against the Filipinos beyond disputed areas, then it will be wise to avoid half measures: you don't want to live next door to an overly resentful neighbor permanently.

Any sort of strike against targets in say Luzon should be intended to contribute to the establishment of a pro-Beijing regime governing most or all of the Philippines.

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Nothing about this incident benefits China or helps it become a superpower.

There's a price that has to be paid if China wants to assert total and exclusive sovereignty over the South China Sea at the expense of rival claimants.

 

[votran]

I think China should do more than ramming and water canon. This is also a sensitive timing cause Marcos just said that Philippines is going to fight China in a Taiwan war. Overall the trajectory is that Philippines is slowly becoming a new Ukraine in terms of provocations.

I think China will have to do something kinetic like arresting trespassers instead of just expelling them.

no balls , no will , for some reason i start thinking alot of CCP higher up really believe the fking fantasy about the world run by moral/legal code standard where good guy win

that why they try so fking hard to be nice and soft , thinking if we be the good boy people will start loving and accept/agree with us

 

[bsdnf]

I think China should do more than ramming and water canon. This is also a sensitive timing cause Marcos just said that Philippines is going to fight China in a Taiwan war. Overall the trajectory is that Philippines is slowly becoming a new Ukraine in terms of provocations.

I think China will have to do something kinetic like arresting trespassers instead of just expelling them.

Escalation within the framework of maritime law enforcement is more likely, with more frequent and aggressive clashes and VBSS between the CCG and PCG, and a real blockade of the Sierra Madre (China side has always allowed the transportation of daily necessities).

 

[zyklon]

no balls , no will , for some reason i start thinking alot of CCP higher up really believe the fking fantasy about the world run by moral/legal code standard where good guy win

that why they try so fking hard to be nice and soft , thinking if we be the good boy people will start loving and accept/agree with us

Amoral violence is perfectly fine and suitable for establishing dominance and eliminating threats.

However, if you want to govern and/or subjugate in a sustainable fashion, you need your subjects to accept the legitimacy of your rule over them: that's always a lot easier with laws and norms that are or at least appear just and fair.

To paraphrase Machiavelli: you can rule with fear, but it's better to be feared and loved.

 

[arthur2046]

A full video of this accident.

 

[votran]

What will that accomplish?



The US military does not maintain a permanent presence in the Philippines these days — definitely nothing comparable to the USFK and USFJ footprints in South Korea and Japan, respectively — and it'd be reckless to gift Manila and Washington the political capital needed for Subic Bay to effectively host major USN and/or USCG combat vessels permanently or something to that extent.



If the PLA is to go kinetic — or more precisely, explosive — against the Filipinos beyond disputed areas, then it will be wise to avoid half measures: you don't want to live next door to an overly resentful neighbor permanently.

Any sort of strike against targets in say Luzon should be intended to contribute to the establishment of a pro-Beijing regime governing most or all of the Philippines.

---

There's a price that has to be paid if China wants to assert total and exclusive sovereignty over the South China Sea at the expense of rival claimants.

What will that accomplish?
show to the world and the US . china actually have balls , have will to fight for it fking interest and china's own version of monroe doctrine

The US military does not maintain a permanent presence in the Philippines these days
and china doesn't even have balls to do non permanent military drill in cuba or any china friendly nation in US backyard
let alone fking station missile system there
why is that ? because china scare US will go batshit crazy
but why US don't fear china gonna go crazy mad when US do it in taiwan , philipines ?
because they know china have no balls

this shit was the main reason we have today fked up situation : only china fear if we punch any bastard in our backyard , then they gonna bring our enemy in and stay there forever > big trouble

and US have no fear for that . they bomb the shit out of any middle america , south america nations if anyone of them dare to invted china navy/missile in .

There's a price that has to be paid if China wants to assert total and exclusive sovereignty over the South China Sea at the expense of rival claimants.
lol the most comedy monroe doctrine i ever seen .

 

[Lnk111229]

A large vessel such as the 052D requires authorization from the highest command in the PLAN/CMC to depart from the dock, let alone be deployed to a particular location. It is certain that the PLAN/CMC possesses information (unknown to us) that validates the presence of the 052D. Furthermore, it might be inferred that the PCG attempted to engage with the 052D, prompting the CCG to take action to repel it. It is not the captain of the 164 ship's fault for being present in that. The recent video footage reveals the PCG maneuvering away from the 164 can't prove anything. In essence, what has been wrote here is merely internet conjecture, so it should be regarded as such.

 

[Amistrophy]

I don’t understand why the PLAN and CCG engage in ramming at all.

Same diff with the PLAAF, zero idea what the deal is with the high risk intercepts.

Playing bumper cars with your billion RMB naval assets has got to be a form of mental retardation brainworm transferred through cross contamination via second rate backwards military like the Soviet/Russian Navy.

It’s utterly ridiculous and looks pathetic as well.

I don’t think the brass should be allowed to stop at stringing up a few COs, there should be major doctrinal reform and a reevaluation of whatever the fuck they’re trying to do in the SCS and more broadly what kind of military the PLA now is and wants to be.

 

[zyklon]

What will that accomplish?
show to the world and the US . china actually have balls , have will to fight for it fking interest and china's own version of monroe doctrine

The US military does not maintain a permanent presence in the Philippines these days
and china doesn't even have balls to do non permanent military drill in cuba or any china friendly nation in US backyard
let alone fking station missile system there
why is that ? because china scare US will go batshit crazy
but why US don't fear china gonna go crazy mad when US do it in taiwan , philipines ?
because they know china have no balls

China has more pressing matters (e.g. reunification with Taiwan, securing the SCS) to prioritize than performing theatrics in Cuba or Venezuela.

Pax Americana is in decline in part because Washington overstretched itself globally with military commitments and security guarantees from the Baltics to Israel to the Korean peninsula, among other places.

China would be wise to avoid repeating America's mistakes.

There's a price that has to be paid if China wants to assert total and exclusive sovereignty over the South China Sea at the expense of rival claimants.
lol the most comedy monroe doctrine i ever seen .

What does that even mean?

 

[sequ]

A full video of this accident.

164 dun goofed. And it continued the pursuit after it slammed into 3014. The captain prolly lost it all.