I think regardless of production issues or no production issues, Qianfan couldn't really move much faster than it has currently. Even if there was no production bottleneck the fact is there is not enough space lift capability. The launch tempo isn't high enough yet and many of the commercial rockets aren't ready yet and won't be ready for reusable/high tempo launches for another year or two at least. It's been pretty clear for a while now that both Qianfan and Guowang schedules will have to be pushed back a year or two from their initial expectations.
China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Yeah, but even if Landspace Zhuque-3 is successful on its first launch, they will need a few years to really put the rocket in full operation and ramp up building these rockets on a mass scale(as needed for those Leo constellations) . They will need to reach a point where they can launch a rocket a week. Something im
Not sure they are capable since not even those state owned rocket companies have been able to achieve despite decades of experience and far larger funds available . So I think Landspace and any other successful private space company involved with reusable rockets will be just supporting and adding to those launches, they won’t be the main rocket launchers for these constellations. It will remain mostly under CASC and her subsidiaries given their scale and capabilities, it will take years or over decade for things to change once the private sector has fully matured and consolidated properly with only a few players surviving .
There is still the 522 VAB to be completed, it will enable sub-monthly launch rate of CZ-7/8 series from the LC-201 launch site, and with less interruptions from the lengthy Tianzhou launch campaign.
Still the that CALT advertises seem a long way out. it will probably peak at half that, and for the whole 7/8 familly combined.
Just a note, that production rate is for Gesi's factory only, , which is how Spacesail hoped to or so by the end of 2025 when it started launching them a year ago, SECM's Qianfan production isn't meant to be "small scale" either.
As for guowang, there were some older remarks and estimate for a -260 satellite goal by the end of 2025, but I think that may be obsolete with the more recent stated goal of 400 satellites by 2027, we do know that CAST this year, the majority likely being Guowang (personally I count, so far this year, 46 launched satellites made by CAST and its subsidiaries, including 24 guowang)..
SECM/Shanghai Engeneering Centre of MicroSat（）is the other name of 中科院微小卫星创新研究院 (CAS microsat innovation and research academy). It is the researh arm of CAS, not a factory. Gesi's main founder is 上海中科辰新卫星技术有限公司 which is CAS' branch. So Gesi is partially owned by SECM probably the lead owner. So altough I am not sure but I am afraind that the 324 per year in the article is the same thing of Gesi.
This kind of double or tripple cunting happens a lot in China's news due to the crossing ownership and every individual entity or branch wants to boast their achievement in PR.
One thing to remember is that many Chinese state research institutes established commercial companies as their front ends to the market. We may recieve reports of the same thing from two seemingly different and unrelated entities and be lead to double count.
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There are two distinct production lines, Gesi is in the "G60 Satellite Internet Industrial Base" in Songjiang district, Shanghai, SECM's production line is in Lingang new Area of the Pudong District of Shanghai.
Gesi's factory is fully dedicated to Qianfan while SECM's factory in Pudong district is shared for various projects.
The idea of SECM/Microsat as only a "research arm" may be outdated, it has been one of China's leading satellite manufacturer for the past few years and in scale is currently third only to CAST and SAST in China.
It went from less than 30 satellites produced from 2003 to 2022 to 150 produced since 2022.
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According to @tacoburger the ZQ-2 launcher was supposed to make 3 launches in 2024 and 6 in 2025.
In reality they made 1 ZQ-2E launch in 2024. And we are halfway through 2025 and they only made 1 launch thus far.
His much hated CZ-8 has made 1 launch in 2024 and 3 launches in 2025 thus far.
And CZ-8 carries 30%+ more payload than ZQ-2E.
Now Landspace is filing for an IPO even before ZQ-3 flies. Fishy. Are they running out of money?
I want Landspace to suceed but it doesn't look so good.
In reality they made 1 ZQ-2E launch in 2024. And we are halfway through 2025 and they only made 1 launch thus far.
His much hated CZ-8 has made 1 launch in 2024 and 3 launches in 2025 thus far.
And CZ-8 carries 30%+ more payload than ZQ-2E.
Now Landspace is filing for an IPO even before ZQ-3 flies. Fishy. Are they running out of money?
I want Landspace to suceed but it doesn't look so good.
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Looks like CZ-12 has begun transport operations. Rumor has it the payload is SatNet.
