PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[GulfLander]

Foreign direct investment by Japanese companies — traditionally Taiwan’s third-largest source of FDI, after the EU and US — slumped 27 per cent last year to $452mn, and is down from a peak of $1.7bn in 2022.

In contrast to the drop in Japanese investment, FDI from several other countries hit record levels in 2024, driven by funding for data centres and offshore wind farms. Investment from US companies reached $938mn in 2024, almost double the 2022 amount, while that from the UK almost tripled over the same period to $1.54bn.

Is that alot of money for data centers and offshore windfarms?

 

[votran]

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Japan tells its companies in Taiwan ‘you’re on your own’ if China invades

FDI has slumped as businesses are warned to take on burden of protecting their staff if Beijing attacks

Japanese government officials are telling companies they would be “on their own” if they needed to evacuate staff from Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack, according to people familiar with the matter, a message that has hit one of Taiwan’s largest sources of foreign direct investment.

...

Two Japanese officials told the FT that, under the country’s pacifist constitution, its military could only be deployed abroad with approval from a host government.

Given that Japan does not recognise Taiwan diplomatically — as with all but 12 countries in the world — there “is no government in Taiwan from our viewpoint”, one of the officials said. They added that China was unlikely to grant the Japanese military approval to conduct evacuations.

Although the Japanese government has never confirmed this line as its official position, companies have been receiving the warnings for about three years, diplomats and corporate executives said.

Japanese diplomats told company risk officers that “you are on your own if you put significant assets in Taiwan”, said one person present at one of the conversations.

...

Foreign direct investment by Japanese companies — traditionally Taiwan’s third-largest source of FDI, after the EU and US — slumped 27 per cent last year to $452mn, and is down from a peak of $1.7bn in 2022.

...

In contrast to the drop in Japanese investment, FDI from several other countries hit record levels in 2024, driven by funding for data centres and offshore wind farms. Investment from US companies reached $938mn in 2024, almost double the 2022 amount, while that from the UK almost tripled over the same period to $1.54bn.

trump 2nd term is pretty much golden opportunity to finish off taiwan

NATO , US allied all in chaos , unity level drop to lowest since the end of ww2 , korea politics situation unstable , japan not yet fully rearms , australia too
massive amount of money , weapon , missile wasted in ukraine

US military specially naval and airforce no where near up to date with AI , drone , new missile , F-35 , F-47 , B-21 , new warship in reasonable number to overpower china around taiwan

same as some loyal US allied like UK and their navy

the will to fight for taiwan in US , europe , japan , korea , australia drop to lowest since 1948 ...hell even the will to economic attack/sactions china for taiwan also go down hill at amazing speed

if china let this era go away peacefully , i can't image another one gonna happen again in next 100 years or even more

 

[PLAwatcher12]

trump 2nd term is pretty much golden opportunity to finish off taiwan

NATO , US allied all in chaos , unity level drop to lowest since the end of ww2 , korea politics situation unstable , japan not yet fully rearms , australia too
massive amount of money , weapon , missile wasted in ukraine

US military specially naval and airforce no where near up to date with AI , drone , new missile , F-35 , F-47 , B-21 , new warship in reasonable number to overpower china around taiwan

same as some loyal US allied like UK and their navy

the will to fight for taiwan in US , europe , japan , korea , australia drop to lowest since 1948 ...hell even the will to economic attack/sactions china for taiwan also go down hill at amazing speed

if china let this era go away peacefully , i can't image another one gonna happen again in next 100 years or even more

Not to mention US stockpiles are low and they can’t ramp up fast enough so for years US missile stockpile and AD stockpile will be low but China knows what their doing they have a lot better clue on what is going on and what they want to do in the next 4 years regarding Taiwan

 

[4Tran]

trump 2nd term is pretty much golden opportunity to finish off taiwan

NATO , US allied all in chaos , unity level drop to lowest since the end of ww2 , korea politics situation unstable , japan not yet fully rearms , australia too
massive amount of money , weapon , missile wasted in ukraine

US military specially naval and airforce no where near up to date with AI , drone , new missile , F-35 , F-47 , B-21 , new warship in reasonable number to overpower china around taiwan

same as some loyal US allied like UK and their navy

the will to fight for taiwan in US , europe , japan , korea , australia drop to lowest since 1948 ...hell even the will to economic attack/sactions china for taiwan also go down hill at amazing speed

if china let this era go away peacefully , i can't image another one gonna happen again in next 100 years or even more

China isn't going to do anything. The underlying reason is that China simply doesn't want to invade Taiwan. China would prefer a peaceful reunification, and they're already winning on a strategic level so only a war can upset this balance. Therefore, war is an absolute last resort, and no amount of perceived weakness in the US can change this calculation.

 

[dingyibvs]

trump 2nd term is pretty much golden opportunity to finish off taiwan

NATO , US allied all in chaos , unity level drop to lowest since the end of ww2 , korea politics situation unstable , japan not yet fully rearms , australia too
massive amount of money , weapon , missile wasted in ukraine

US military specially naval and airforce no where near up to date with AI , drone , new missile , F-35 , F-47 , B-21 , new warship in reasonable number to overpower china around taiwan

same as some loyal US allied like UK and their navy

the will to fight for taiwan in US , europe , japan , korea , australia drop to lowest since 1948 ...hell even the will to economic attack/sactions china for taiwan also go down hill at amazing speed

if china let this era go away peacefully , i can't image another one gonna happen again in next 100 years or even more

You could probably say the same for just about every year for the past 10-20 years though. It's like a tanking stock, every now and then there might be a bit bounce, but the larger trend is straight down. The underlying forces are not changing. The Chinese economy is progressively dominating more and more advanced industries, the Western economies are progressively making money while losing wealth. Perhaps this era won't happen again in 100+ years, but I don't think we're anywhere near the end of this era yet.

 

[AndrewJ]

Many rumors are saying US special forces have been permanently deployed in Kinmen Island. Is this legit?

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Under the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), U.S. Army Special Forces—specifically Green Berets from the 1st Special Forces Group, 2nd Battalion, Alpha Company—have been stationed at Taiwanese Army amphibious command centers in Kinmen and Penghu. This deployment represents the first enduring U.S. military presence on the island in over four decades.

 

[CMP]

Many rumors are saying US special forces have been permanently deployed in Kinmen Island. Is this legit?

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Are you worried it's fake news? I'm pretty sure it's not as I vaguely recall the 2023 NDAA does authorize this. There are countless foreign spies routinely operating in China (along with Chinese people working for foreign spies) and IMO that's a much bigger problem than some special forces in Kinmen.

 

[PLAwatcher12]

Many rumors are saying US special forces have been permanently deployed in Kinmen Island. Is this legit?

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It’s true, but it’s a pretty small number and their role there according to the US is to train Taiwanese special forces

 

[AndrewJ]

It’s true, but it’s a pretty small number and their role there according to the US is to train Taiwanese special forces

Why China not start AR because of these? It's already cross the red line.
Many mainlanders are angry about this. Pretend nothing happened makes CCP looks like a blustering & weak coward.

 

[PLAwatcher12]

Why China not start AR because of these? It's already cross the red line.
Many mainlanders are angry about this. Pretend nothing happened makes CCP looks like a blustering & weak coward.

I hope you’re joking but it’s incredibly stupid for China to go to over war over this, the US wants China to go war because they can beat them now and not later, also Chinas red line is Taiwan declaring independence. Just think for a moment before you suggest China should have gone to war over some US special forces training Taiwan special forces