2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[solarz]

After getting attacked like this, there is no way Iran is returning to negotiations. Its either they keep fighting and eventually israel gives up, accepting that Iran is now completely unrestrained in its nuclear program. Or Iran is defeated and has regime change. I don't see another JCPOA happening

Iran doesn't want to keep fighting, this is pretty clear from their responses. They're also not going to publicly restart their nuclear program after the huge gift Trump just gave them. The only variable here is Netanyahu.

From these events, we can surmise that the Israeli lobby is extremely influential in the US. Even Trump has to tiptoe around them and pretend to work with them. That said, it also shows that Trump is probably not in their pocket either.

 

[TK3600]

Israel smell blood and tried to finish Iran once and for all, but finally found out its limits when facing Iran one on one. Then screamed and throwing a tantrum trying to drag daddy America into finishing his misadventure. America however, has Ch--- (shall not be named in this thread), constantly on the back of his mind, not to mention his nightmares, dares not commit any soldier, not even want to deplete his missile stockpile, not when there is a rare earth ban hanging over his head.

Israel killed multiple highest ranked military official, not to mention hit numerous important military targets. Iran blew up bunch of government office and likely after it was evacuated. Not exactly an even exchange.

 

[Equation]

Israel killed multiple highest ranked military official, not to mention hit numerous important military targets. Iran blew up bunch of government office and likely after it was evacuated. Not exactly an even exchange.

True, but the Israeli economy is getting hit more than "usual". Iran is under sanction, but they're used to dealing with that, just like Russia.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Iran doesn't want to keep fighting, this is pretty clear from their responses. They're also not going to publicly restart their nuclear program after the huge gift Trump just gave them. The only variable here is Netanyahu.

From these events, we can surmise that the Israeli lobby is extremely influential in the US. Even Trump has to tiptoe around them and pretend to work with them. That said, it also shows that Trump is probably not in their pocket either.

Iran 100% restarting their program publicly. They said it openly, they consider it their right. They might also build more nuclear plants secretly, probably even deeper under the ground and do the sensitive stuff there. But there will be a public enrichment program for sure.

 

[jiajia99]

This is encouraging.

Trump has played this crisis very well, and showed that he has more political savvy than most gave him credit for.

By announcing that the US conducted a successful attack against Iran and completely destroyed their nuclear capabilities, he essentially shut down the Jewish lobby whose entire argument was that Iran's nuclear program posed a threat to the US. It also gave both Israel and Iran a face-saving exit ramp to return to the negotiation table.

The only wildcard here is Israel, or more specifically, Netanyahu. It remains to be seen if he will double down on his gambit and continue attacking Iran.

BTW, this also explains Tulsi Gabbard's reversal.

I don’t think Trump thinks things that far ahead sadly, not when this move costs a lot of money and political capital and now runs the risk of getting other nations more directly involved via proving to the world beyond the shadow of a doubt that the USA under Trump public has no respect for international norms. Really is this another self owned move when the USA simply cannot afford to do such a thing, especially when the nation is literally destroying its international reputation to stick up for Israel right now

 

[jshw31]

I don’t think Trump thinks things that far ahead sadly, not when this move costs a lot of money and political capital and now runs the risk of getting other nations more directly involved via proving to the world beyond the shadow of a doubt that the USA under Trump public has no respect for international norms. Really is this another self owned move when the USA simply cannot afford to do such a thing, especially when the nation is literally destroying its international reputation to stick up for Israel right now

I would argue the US support for Israel over Gaza had much more of a negative reputational impact than this. Most of the world, especially the Gulf states, likely supports this outcome if this is it, even if the attack/action itself is a bit brazen and "illegal".

 

[tankphobia]

Israel killed multiple highest ranked military official, not to mention hit numerous important military targets. Iran blew up bunch of government office and likely after it was evacuated. Not exactly an even exchange.

I feel like somehow people have this mentality that if we hit them we win, no matter how much it costed us.

Throughout this whole thing Israel repeatedly demonstrates that the best move in geopolitics is to be prepared and decisive. While Iran is debating what to do next Israel is already striking the next target. Their enemy is so used to western powers telegraphing and debating their actions to death that when Israel hits them they are exceedingly slow to respond.

 

[RedBaron]

President Trump claims a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed to

In a post on Truth Social, president Trump claims a 12-hr ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been reached. The ceasefire, he says, will begin in 6 hours.

He writes:

CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!

Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[TK3600]

I feel like somehow people have this mentality that if we hit them we win, no matter how much it costed us.

Throughout this whole thing Israel repeatedly demonstrates that the best move in geopolitics is to be prepared and decisive. While Iran is debating what to do next Israel is already striking the next target. Their enemy is so used to western powers telegraphing and debating their actions to death that when Israel hits them they are exceedingly slow to respond.

This exchange as well as one in Ukraine shows the first strike is the most valuable strike. With a surprise attack Israel was able to kill multiple high ranking official and air defense units at very low cost.

Iran despite having a missile advantage, cannot inflict nearly as much damage because Israel had prior preparation and could evacuate important facilities.

 

[Sheleah]

President Trump claims a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed to

In a post on Truth Social, president Trump claims a 12-hr ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been reached. The ceasefire, he says, will begin in 6 hours.

He writes:

CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!

Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It was to be expected. Iran has been militarily defeated, and it must try to prevent Israel from achieving its political objectives and pretend that they are doing well.


It should avoid launching missiles at Qatar, a desperate and unnecessary action.