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Randomuser

Randomuser

Major
Registered Member
Breadbox said:
So cute when people say the US waste time and money in the middle east instead of east asia. No, the middle east is only place you get a return on using the military, you slap around a helpless military with no allies, the losses are near zero, occupy some land or proxies, the world wows at the endless might of the United States and everyone gets a participation medal.

You send your military to east asia and all it does is getting into a staring contest with the toughest opponent you've ever face while praying to god that nothing happens.

Now, there's no predicting what someone as unpredictable as Trump will decide on, but when the entire military is incentivised to replay the easy fights, it'll keep returning to it even when no civilian wants it to happen. I say the chances are good on US involvement.
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They used to. This was esp apparent during the late Qing period. The problem is after the wars in Korea and Vietnam (it's literally next to China), America got it's ass kicked and realize they couldn't do it anymore.

The middle east for a lack of a better word are basically cans. Easy opponents for a fighter to pad his record.

See, this is the best form of deterrence, kicking the guy's ass so hard he will think twice before trying to mess with you again. It's the only language they understand.
 
I

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
In4ser said:
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It’s begun. America is going to get stuck in another Middle East war in a country larger than Iraq and mountainous like Afghanistan.
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Fordow is a manufactured off ramp, pretty obvious ever since they started hyping it up as some sort of key to everything. It's honestly amazing how people think if Iran is building nukes they will build it at a publicly disclosed facility that they let IAEA inspect for years

But the whole Iranian WMD narrative isn't even real, its an excuse Israel invented to push for war, so to bomb some rocks and destroy a non-existent thing then declare victory is just a round about way for Trump to not help Israel deal with the actual Irainan missile bombing them problem. I mean If Bush said in 2023 they did a thing, completely destroyed Iraq's non existent WMD, not only destroyed but so successful there's no possiblty of any remaining, it would just mean he called off the invasion.

Of course Israel getting bombed problem is still there, not to mention the original invasion goal, so Israel will have to come up with an new narrative to pressure Trump to save them, we'll see what it is in the coming days. For now, the bigger a victory Trump declares, the more it means he wants to throw Israel out to dry.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
GulfLander said:
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So roughly 2 warheads per week, it should be 4 warheads per week or roughly 200 warheads per year. I am assuming all are H-bomb which is very likely

Anybody knows what kind of warhead is currently being produced? I am assuming mainly for the new Silos and SLBM (?)

I am still intrigued whether China has enough WgPu (?) ... I know that H-bomb warhead doesn't necessarily need WgPu as HEU is okay too even not optimal as it may weigh more
 
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montyp165

Senior Member
Randomuser said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1936160548263006356

I remember when Drew was getting so much praise being anti China. Unfortunately he thought it was a good idea to go into other areas which would have more pushback like Israel. Then he started getting into fights with guys like Andrew Tate. Now almost everyone hates him.

That's the fate of China watchers these days.
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The corollary to the 'do nothing, win' meme is 'if you wait long enough your enemies will kill themselves for you'.

antiterror13 said:
So roughly 2 warheads per week, it should be 4 warheads per week or roughly 200 warheads per year. I am assuming all are H-bomb which is very likely

Anybody knows what kind of warhead is currently being produced? I am assuming mainly for the new Silos and SLBM (?)

I am still intrigued whether China has enough WgPu (?) ... I know that H-bomb warhead doesn't necessarily need WgPu as HEU is okay too even not optimal as it may weigh more
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My thinking is that the old estimate of 3000 warheads is closer to the mark than the one mentioned, if one takes into consideration improvements in warhead design (including higher efficiency HE detonators) and efficiency of yield generation (especially in regards to fusion reaction generation from materials such as lithium-deuteride 6 and 7), which also reduces the amount of fissile material needed for a given yield. When also taking into consideration both new ongoing production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium as well as recovering/remanufacturing of preexisting obsolete nuclear warheads into newer ones this would significantly increase the availability of deployable warheads for all the new delivery systems.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
So roughly 2 warheads per week, it should be 4 warheads per week or roughly 200 warheads per year. I am assuming all are H-bomb which is very likely

Anybody knows what kind of warhead is currently being produced? I am assuming mainly for the new Silos and SLBM (?)

I am still intrigued whether China has enough WgPu (?) ... I know that H-bomb warhead doesn't necessarily need WgPu as HEU is okay too even not optimal as it may weigh more
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it takes about 2kg of plutonium to build a nuke. So, China just producing 4kg of plutonium a week is sad. If they were really serious, they can easily add a thousand nuke per year.
 
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