The Kashmir conflict 2025.

FishWings

Junior Member
Registered Member
if J-10C is good enough to deter all fighter jets in current IAF arsenal, there's no reason for PAF to get any other model of fighters. unless India managed to get F-35 or EF-2000.
It would be ideal to keep it this way, as there will be no urgent need for either side to keep perpetually climbing the arms race ladder.

Problem is, the IAF decided to send in their 'tip of the spear' in a high-risk manner, and that spearhead was subsequently blunted in a pretty shocking way, especially after they have hyped up the Rafale as being comparable or better than the J-20 (lmao).

So now, they will have to replace that proverbial spearhead with a new platform, and that replacement needs to be significantly more capable - at least on paper - so that they can tout it as 'proof' they can achieve total air dominance against their enemies.

The Eurofighter won't be enough, the F-35 is unlikely (unless LM wants to tank their flagship's reputation), so my opinion is that they will most probably go back to Russia and buy Su-57Es. And if that's the case, logically the PAF will need something to match them in that regard.
 

Lethe

Captain
Funny no one is getting upset over the Su-30 and MiG-29 shot downs, everyone is kind of just "well yeah that happens".

For the last fifteen years, the Indian Air Force has looked to Rafale as the solution to its ageing inventory, and to maintaining a superior capability relative to Pakistan, and at least a competitive capability relative to China. The case for acquiring expensive French aircraft has to be defended against alternative and complementary development and acquisition pathways including domestic LCA and AMCA programs, Su-57/FGFA, further investment in Su-30MKI, and most recently the vague suggestion that F-35 may be available. The argument against these alternatives rests heavily on the asserted capability of and confidence in the Rafale platform. In that context, the loss of at least one Rafale inevitably shakes the foundations of that narrative, something that assumes particular significance given recent contract signature for Rafale M for Indian Navy, and rumours of potential further Rafale acquisitions for IAF.

Of course it can reasonably be pointed out that, in conflict between even vaguely comparable opponents as India and Pakistan are, equipment losses of all kinds should be expected. There is obviously nothing magical about Rafale, nor does the loss of at least one such aircraft necessarily point to any particular fault of the platform. Nonetheless, Indian discourse having inflated the Rafale balloon this past fifteen years, the puncturing of that balloon is of course going to occasion much celebration on the one side and dismay and denial on the other. There is no corresponding debate regarding recent or future acquisition of Su-30, MiG-29, Mirage platforms, and as such no controversy about losses (real or not) of those aircraft.
 
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Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
if J-10C is good enough to deter all fighter jets in current IAF arsenal, there's no reason for PAF to get any other model of fighters. unless India managed to get F-35 or EF-2000.
Upgrades to upgrade Su-30MKI beyond J-10C are available on the market, I'd guess India will fast track them.

Before the assumption in India was apparently to wait it out on MRF, but even if it's still feasible, politics will probably ensure alternative option.

Either jet or politicians have to take the blame.
The Eurofighter won't be enough, the F-35 is unlikely (unless LM wants to tank their flagship's reputation), so my opinion is that they will most probably go back to Russia and buy Su-57Es. And if that's the case, logically the PAF will need something to match them in that regard.
Not sure su-57e can be fast-tracked. Algiers was ahead, and I doubt KNA production will be able to keep up with 3 customers(including VKS) at the same time.
 

CaribouTruth

Junior Member
Registered Member
Upgrades to upgrade Su-30MKI beyond J-10C are available on the market, I'd guess India will fast track them.

Before the assumption in India was apparently to wait it out on MRF, but even if it's still feasible, politics will probably ensure alternative option.

Either jet or politicians have to take the blame.

Not sure su-57e can be fast-tracked. Algiers was ahead, and I doubt KNA production will be able to keep up with 3 customers(including VKS) at the same time.
They've been talking about a "Super Sukhoi" for some time now, funding released last year if i recall correctly so it'll take a good part of a decade to build those subsystems.

IAF refusing to lean into the flanker more as a very upgradable platform is one of those things that I have never understood because PLAAF set the example for what to do with flankers early on.
 

xyz4321

New Member
Registered Member
I'm probably gonna get perma banned after this violation, but could not resist.

This little article explains how badly fkd India is,
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TL;DR
India doesn't have Rafale and M2K source codes, hence cannot equip Indian systems and munitions on it. Dassault refuses to share. That also hints that all non-French systems are likely not integrated with the Rafale and M2K, such as the non-French ground radars, AWACS, SAM, etc.

I think this lack of integration issue was well-known, as pointed out earlier in the thread. In 2019, India's Israeli-made SPYDER SAM shot down IAF's Russian-made Mi-17 chopper in friendly fire.

__________
20m ago,
Drone shot down over Lahore
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May 7-8
Many telegram reports indicating something happened in Gujranwala, Pakistani Punjab (explosions on ground and air); later reports say Indian drone was intercepted
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Explosions heard in Amritsar (Indian town on the border near Lahore)
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Interceptors firing from Amritsar and Jalandhar (Indian Panjab)
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Person recording this crash at Bathinda says "somebody got shot AFTER they exited [the plane]; they're picking up people and carrying them away"
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May 6
A local Kashmiri in India posted this video and another preceding it on Twitter (probably already posted here). He says in the video: "missile was approaching this aircraft, it dispensed flares, got hit, explosion; unknown if Pakistan's or India's"
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Now that we know that it was probably Indian, we also know the flares did not work. His other video had captured the flares (but i lost the link).

This crash in Srinagar looks too big to be a fighter?
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Screenshot_20250507_222029_Telegram.jpg


Can someone verify if the video of aircraft shot down is legit or from some games?
Video is from a video game. An Indian asked Grok to verify. Grok replied that the footage is real. That should tell you everything about Grok's abilities.

According to wikipedia there are 5 IAF bases in Punjab, IN including one base hosting a Rafale wing
View attachment 151502
If confirmed, we could be seeing Pakistan's retaliation against IAF
IAF also has bases in Rajasthan along/near the Pakistani Punjab border. Bikaner AFS and Jaisalmer AFS are pretty big. Bikaner may have played a role in the strike on Bahawalpur.
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Gotta strike when the iron is hot. Considering pakistan would love to regain kashmir. It might be a good opportunity to regain at least part of that land
Jammu looks get-able. It's trapped in a narrow space with mountains on one side of the town and Pakistan border on a flat land 15km away. Road to Jammu from india proper is along a narrow corridor as well, just 8km from the border to the mountains.
ezgif-5675f92c93e666.jpg
Responding to an outside agression is the duty of the government regardless its form and shape, no need to bring in Pakistan's domestic politics. The narative of military leadership against Imran Khan is the type of western narative that has been used back and forth against countries unfriendly to them.


Hitting a dam will turn Pakistan from a favorable position (reasonable, rational and responsible) to nagative one like India's renegation of water treaty and agression without showing any evidence. India is acting like US after 911, throwing accusation on Iraq and invaded it. Pakistani leadership is smart not to act like India.
There is a serious massive water shortage in India. Not being talked about much but it has become as much an existential threat for them as it has been for Pakistan. And with China damming the Yarlung/Brahmaputra, the effect of the threat is exarcebated, along with India's heavily polluted water sources, exhausted aquifers and constant heatwaves.

Suspension of Indus River treaty was India's first step towards securing it's water resources. Next step is damming the Indus and diverting water to India. These developments will 100% lead to war (if they haven't already). In that situation, Pakistan will have to lead the war.

I think the 125 planes in the sky might just be inevitable hyperbole or some twisting of the facts to fit the number.
Sensationalist nonsense. The first paragraph said it all: dog fight at 160km. Wtf!
 
Upgrades to upgrade Su-30MKI beyond J-10C are available on the market, I'd guess India will fast track them.

Before the assumption in India was apparently to wait it out on MRF, but even if it's still feasible, politics will probably ensure alternative option.

Either jet or politicians have to take the blame.

Not sure su-57e can be fast-tracked. Algiers was ahead, and I doubt KNA production will be able to keep up with 3 customers(including VKS) at the same time.
How? Russia have yet to demonstrate the capability to produce radars and EW systems that are on par with what the Rafale has.

Russia cannot even mass produce AESA radar. Even the Su-57 radar would not be competetive vis a vis Chinese fighter radars.
 
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iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Upgrades to upgrade Su-30MKI beyond J-10C are available on the market, I'd guess India will fast track them.

Before the assumption in India was apparently to wait it out on MRF, but even if it's still feasible, politics will probably ensure alternative option.

Either jet or politicians have to take the blame.

Not sure su-57e can be fast-tracked. Algiers was ahead, and I doubt KNA production will be able to keep up with 3 customers(including VKS) at the same time.
The idea of fast tracking acquisition of latest Russian weapons in response to western gear getting smocked by Chinese tech is especially funny considering what Xi is doing right now.
 
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