Something will happen. Simply because it will be a political suicide if Modi doesnt act. To what degree, that is the question.
Surgical strike 1 was fiction, but its Indian media, so it flew. Balakot was a disaster, from A to Z, initial strikes missing target and most Indians still believe that Abhinandan shot down F-16. They even gave him the highest military award (LMAO).
He will be forced to act. Even Indian supreme court hanged one of the suspects in Parliament attack despite no evidence because 'Public conscience' demanded it.
Public conscience being fueled by fake news.
China has taken a principled stance essentially echoing Pakistan's call for impartial investigation and calming the fuck down. Basically, saying provide actual fucking evidence. Pakistan is saying this because theyre confident they got nothing to hide.
Nobody with basics of IR expects China to be directly involved, they never have been in this theatre and there is frankly no need for it.
Last time, they were involved was Korea and Vietnam, nor the situation is the same. India isnt America and Pakistan isnt North Korea. Hence there is no need for an intervention. At best at best, it would be Pakistan buying emergency logistics. Pakistan's first use of nukes threshold is much higher than say any serious contemplation of direct Chinese intervention. Hence, again, there is no geopolitical framework for China's direct kinetic intervention.
Would China provide some sort of political cover and logistics supply? China has already essentially echoed Pakistan's stance, so thats that and logistics supply is par normal, nothing extraordinary or out of the FP playbook in such situations.
China provided logistical cover to Russia against much stiffer opposition of US-EU combined, to keep them bogged down and keep fucking up America's pivot to Asia. Similar situation with Iran. It diverts US's increasingly lesser and lesser resources from Pacific front.
What is then, India compared to combined EU-US?. Why wouldnt China not capitalize on another potential rival bogging themselves down. India's worth to the west is its future potential to be China's rival. If that future potential keeps getting pushed back, it gives China more time to focus on its internal disagreements with the rebel province.
Those saying China should directly intervene, do not understand how China plays the game. Similarly, those saying China would never interfere directly or indirectly, do not understand how China plays the game. Both sides are incorrect on their assessment IMO.