I don't think people consider this news anymore, PRC has successfully normalized any naval operations around Taiwan
Make this viral so we can get Nezha 2 banned in Taiwan.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Make this viral so we can get Nezha 2 banned in Taiwan.
I bet that any of of the PLAN LHAs can sail into Kaohsiung harbor and not a single ROC ship would dare fire on it.
I actually believe this is how armed reunification will happen. The PLA will sail and fly in, and ROC forces will simply run away, like former regime forces in Afghanistan and Syria.
This is a bitter reality, as this island is one of the few regions that dares to engage in radical provocations without actual punishment.
This is their advantage, as they can maximize the use of political correctness for their own benefit. And pass on the risk of provocation to Americans.
This is complete opportunism.
I have previously shared the views of a retired military officer. In order to gain the support of the United States, they urgently need to prove themselves "useful", so it is necessary to defeat their opponents head-on.
Even a small victory in Kinmen is enough to reverse the mentality of the defeated soldiers in the past. So why use reckless adventurism to enhance the opponent's determination to confront?
The sailors were Taiwanese Chinese, this isn't the clear cut act of war that perhaps some in China would like.
Even though China has the final jurisdiction over those sailors and the ROC flagged ship, it is more complicated legally because, well, it's not a ship crewed or taking off from PRC held areas.
If China says "no the sailors must be returned to the mainland", that likely/certainly means taking them away from their actual families in Taiwan. Which isn't amazing PR.
IMO indeed. If there's a war, then 2025/2026/2027 are perfect times, from many perspectives.
I don’t think Trump would ever abandon Taiwan, like what happened with Ukraine, because he simply can’t. Taiwan isn’t just another peripheral geopolitical issue, it’s the one area where there’s near-total consensus among US elites, from oligarchs to the deep state. Trump doesn’t have the power to go against that, he's not that strong. They see Taiwan as an existential issue. If they ‘lose’ Taiwan, they believe it’s game over, lights out for their global empire and their unjust prosperity for good. That's why they will never 'give it' without a fight, IMO. That said, I think Trump’s presidency would be a better timeline for China, not because the US would ever willingly hand Taiwan over peacefully (that would never happen in a million years in my assessment), but because if the war does happen under Trump, the US would go into it far more internally divided and isolated from the rest of the Collective West. Trump’s sheer presence is polarizing enough to fracture both America itself as well as America’s relationship with its vassals. The guy’s a walking menace, and that’s not the kind of environment you want to be in when in a war with China.IMO indeed. If there's a war, then 2025/2026/2027 are perfect times, from many perspectives.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Americans just have big mouths. Just because they say that all democracy hinges on something or that this is what will make/break America, it does not mean anything in the long term. They will say things like that when they feel confident on it, but they will fall into reality and state that it's not even that strategically sigificant when they believe that they either cannot defend it or that doing so will come at a cost that is too high.
They said these things about the importance of victory in Ukraine and right now they are just trying to salvage whatever is left if Russia will permit a deal. If Russia refuses and just keep advancing, there is no plan. There is not even a threat of a massive American military surge to make Russia want to stop.
Right now, China can take Taiwan, all diplomacy be damned. Right now, China can also choose to offer Trump a deal, and it won't be terribly expensive either because it does not cost much to pay a guy to not show up to a fight he thinks he'd likely lose anyway. But China won't do either of those things because military action should be delayed as long as possible as long as the balance of power continues to tilt towards China or until China's power becomes undeniably dominant and it is against moral principle to make a deal with a gangster for him to let you keep what's yours. Instead, China's plan is to just keep growing until it becomes so powerful that when it finally makes the demand for Taiwan, it is clear to everyone in the world that the only way for them to survive is to accept.
The thing with Ukraine is that they had to suffer a real-world defeat, in some form, first before they could break out of the delusional think tank fairyland they were living in, to some extent.
That’s how I see Taiwan too. Their inflated self-image knows no limits, and expecting them to act rationally is unrealistic.
Right now, they tell themselves, sure, we lost to Russia, but that wasn’t our real fight. We held back because our real enemy is China, our so-called "near-peer". If we face China directly, we’ll do better.
What I expect is that they’ll try to provoke China into a conflict over Taiwan sooner or later, thinking they can somehow control the outcome. Only after they suffer a clear defeat will they even consider negotiating.
However, at that point, the most they can hope for is being allowed to join China’s BRI to help rebuild the smaller newly independent states that will likely emerge from the wreckage of a prolonged continental civil war in North America, a war fueled by internal polarization, military defeat, and the economic collapse triggered by China’s mauling them around Taiwan.