Miscellaneous News

[Iron Man]

they might just try to impose it like they did to Iraq. The difference is that they simply don't have the power to do so against Russia, but their hubris and delusion may blind them to that fact.

Russia would not agree in principle or in action to allow NATO presence in Ukraine. Like ever. NATO imposing it without Russia's consent wouldn't happen if it hasn't happened already after 3 years. Not because NATO couldn't beat Russia conventionally, but because a Russia losing and backed against a wall will nuke, something Putin has said multiple times. If Russia did not have nukes like it does, a Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 would have immediately been followed by a NATO invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022, followed by a NATO rout of all Russian forces in Ukraine by the end of the month. Actually, if Russia did not have nukes, Ukraine would already be part of NATO, or even worse for Russia, Russia would already have been balkanized by NATO. As it stands, nobody in NATO truly wants to test Russian nuclear resolve even as they care little about Russia's conventional forces.

 

[iewgnem]

Just don't use the US port -- use Canadian or Mexican than ship across the border using rail or trucks.

Yeah honestly China simply doing nothing in the short term is a pretty valid option.
If played right there's a path to China using this to expand dominance from ship-building to shipping operations.

- Ships take years to build, so immediately US policy will just lead to shipping companies reallocating existing ships.
- Then the companies have to make a choice, do they bet US policies will remain by the time their orders gets built.
- Among shipping companies that bet US will retain policy, and place order with Korean and Japaneses yards, those orders will drive up price and delivery time and hurt the competitiveness of those shipping companies both financially and from just the shortage of ships.
- Chinese shipping companies will of course continue to order from Chinese yards.

Then China do the funniest thing and, right as those new orders get built, put a equivalent dock fee on those new orders, in the process not only kill off Korean and Japaneses ship-building but also kill off shipping companies that shifted all their orders to them

The above is advantageous to China, but if China also wants to f* up the US, then instead of taxing non-China built ships, China can tax any ships that carried any cargo or container outbound from US after announcement date, so shipping companies from that point on must separate their fleet into US and non-US fleets and basically make it prohibitively expensive for US to export anything, even via third parties.

Americans are dismantling international norms without understanding those norms are what's protecting them from being torn to shreds by the real king of the jungle.

 

[iewgnem]

IMO it's necessary to think outside of the box. If someone is attacking you via one axis, they must believe that they have an advantage along that axis. Even if that's not true, it's probably still one of their best axes of attack. The best counter then would probably be along a different axis, one that perhaps you have a better advantage, along with simply some defensive measures along the opponent's axis of attack. For example, in this situation, the defensive and offensive operations could be as following (not very well fleshed out, but something like it).

Defensive: What the American action does is raising cost for owners of Chinese ships. Rather than totally barring companies without Chinese ships, simply raise the cost for them so the effects are balanced out. This can be done a variety of ways.

Offensive: Promote Chinese shipbuilding components, modules even, plus equipment, labor, IP, etc. overseas, infiltrate SK and Japanese shipyards so that they can be shut down without Chinese support.

I think it's bit of a stretch to assume US did any advantage analysis, they're just working off tribal unga bunga, just like the tariff replacing income tax idea. What they proposed with shipping is singularly guaranteed to hurt themselves with minimal and easily mitigated effect on China, the real question for China is how to take maximum advantage of it, because it would be a shame to waste an oppertunity like this.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Noah Smith, nuff said.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1893718050123182124

LMAO tweet of the day:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1893584017607319608

Coping tweet of the day:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1893489365331910746

So does that make America an Oligarchial shithole then because evidently it can’t even match a Communist dictatorship.

 

[FriedButter]

What they proposed with shipping is singularly guaranteed to hurt themselves with minimal and easily mitigated effect on China, the real question for China is how to take maximum advantage of it, because it would be a shame to waste an oppertunity like this.

It could turn into a self fulfilling prophecy of an economic trade war. Because it also means US exports to China becomes more expensive. Demanding Chinese shipping companies that imports US goods to not operate any Chinese ships will make their goods less attractive, which in turn widens the US deficit. Triggering the china hawks and trump into more tariffs.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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This should be required reading for everyone in this forum, translated into Chinese, and reposted as required reading too.

 

[henrik]

It could turn into a self fulfilling prophecy of an economic trade war. Because it also means US exports to China becomes more expensive. Demanding Chinese shipping companies that imports US goods to not operate any Chinese ships will make their goods less attractive, which in turn widens the US deficit. Triggering the china hawks and trump into more tariffs.

China should impose import taxes on non-Chinese built chips that are transporting US stuff and agricultural products. After any new trade agreement between China and the US, China will be forced to buy more US agricultural products. This will make the yankees think twice about taxing Chinese ships and using non-Chinese ships for exporting stuff to China.

 

[bajingan]

Yeah honestly China simply doing nothing in the short term is a pretty valid option.
If played right there's a path to China using this to expand dominance from ship-building to shipping operations.

- Ships take years to build, so immediately US policy will just lead to shipping companies reallocating existing ships.
- Then the companies have to make a choice, do they bet US policies will remain by the time their orders gets built.
- Among shipping companies that bet US will retain policy, and place order with Korean and Japaneses yards, those orders will drive up price and delivery time and hurt the competitiveness of those shipping companies both financially and from just the shortage of ships.
- Chinese shipping companies will of course continue to order from Chinese yards.

Then China do the funniest thing and, right as those new orders get built, put a equivalent dock fee on those new orders, in the process not only kill off Korean and Japaneses ship-building but also kill off shipping companies that shifted all their orders to them

The above is advantageous to China, but if China also wants to f* up the US, then instead of taxing non-China built ships, China can tax any ships that carried any cargo or container outbound from US after announcement date, so shipping companies from that point on must separate their fleet into US and non-US fleets and basically make it prohibitively expensive for US to export anything, even via third parties.

Americans are dismantling international norms without understanding those norms are what's protecting them from being torn to shreds by the real king of the jungle.

Also I bet large parts of ship components and electronics are made in China, even if the ships are built in Japan and SK
China can simply jack the prices of these components, and make Japan and SK made ships prohibitely expensive

 

[pmc]

Russia would not agree in principle or in action to allow NATO presence in Ukraine. Like ever. NATO imposing it without Russia's consent wouldn't happen if it hasn't happened already after 3 years. Not because NATO couldn't beat Russia conventionally, but because a Russia losing and backed against a wall will nuke, something Putin has said multiple times. If Russia did not have nukes like it does, a Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 would have immediately been followed by a NATO invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022, followed by a NATO rout of all Russian forces in Ukraine by the end of the month. Actually, if Russia did not have nukes, Ukraine would already be part of NATO, or even worse for Russia, Russia would already have been balkanized by NATO. As it stands, nobody in NATO truly wants to test Russian nuclear resolve even as they care little about Russia's conventional forces.

I have doubt Nato can fight conventional war with Russia. how easily France was evicted from Africa and still Macron smiles and bows infront of Arabs. .
It is that picture by the water and CEPA agreement between UAE and Ukraine that keep that Zelensky alive and prolonging the conflict. that CEPA agreement came after many visits of Zelensky to UAE. so by now Arabs have good understanding of Ukraine. it is not like they want Zelensky for ever but still need to be compensated for all the past work.

 

[Iron Man]

I have doubt Nato can fight conventional war with Russia. how easily France was evicted from Africa and still Macron smiles and bows infront of Arabs. .
It is that picture by the water and CEPA agreement between UAE and Ukraine that keep that Zelensky alive and prolonging the conflict. that CEPA agreement came after many visits of Zelensky to UAE. so by now Arabs have good understanding of Ukraine. it is not like they want Zelensky for ever but still need to be compensated for all the past work.

View attachment 146293

Ukraine is not known for strong martial prowess or military technological sophistication and yet 3 years later Russia is only barely starting to make gains inside Ukraine. Contrast that with any major NATO country (France included) with far larger budgets and far more sophisticated weaponry, to speak nothing of all of NATO combined including US military forces. The Russian war machine is more effective now after 3 years, but in 2022 it would easily have been smoked by either NATO minus the US, or the US by itself, but US plus the rest of NATO combined would have steamrolled the Russian military all the way back to Russian borders in short order.

The fact of the initial ineptitude of the Russian military is clearly evidenced by the fact that Putin himself was utterly clueless of how dilapidated the Russian military was in 2022 and held a delusional belief that he could lightning strike into Kiev and decapitate the current leadership and replace it with a new Russia-friendly one. Instead what the entire world witnessed was a months-long 400km-long train of logistics-impaired line of military vehicles along the roads to Kiev, getting picked off slowly by Ukrainian forces before Putin was forced to withdraw them and begin a WW1-style trench-warfare high-casualty slow-crawl across the eastern Ukrainian oblasts.