Miscellaneous News

France and UK plan air power-backed ‘reassurance force’ in postwar Ukraine​

Proposal sees smaller role for land troops to enforce ceasefire, but would require significant US support

France and Britain are drawing up plans to create a “reassurance force” that would rely on western air power, backed by the US, to enforce any ceasefire deal in Ukraine and deter potential Russian aggression.

The plans, which western officials said were still being fleshed out, give a bigger role to western air forces than proposals previously floated by European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron that potentially involved a large number of soldiers deployed to Ukraine.

Instead they rely on a domain where western militaries have a clear advantage over Russia: their air forces. Land troops would instead be used, at least initially, to protect key Ukrainian sites, such as ports and nuclear power stations.

The aim, western officials said, was to establish an overpowering deterrent that in effect dissuades Russia from breaking any ceasefire deal and so creates conditions for lasting peace in the country.

“The area we have a significant advantage over Russia is in the air and in [our] ability to respond to [any] flagrant abuses of a ceasefire,” one western official said. “It is a punitive approach, to be able to punish Russia if that were to emerge.” But, the official added, the “whole idea is that the challenge does not emerge”.

Senior US and Russian diplomats agreed at a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to negotiate a settlement to an end to the war.

Sir Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, is due to visit Donald Trump in Washington next week, where he will discuss the European proposal and how it might meld with what the US is prepared to offer. The US president in recent days has shocked European allies with his scathing criticism of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, raising fears that the negotiated deal would favour Russia.

Starmer said on Monday that any European military contribution to enforcing a Ukraine ceasefire would require what he called “a US backstop”.

“A US security guarantee is the only effective way to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again,” Starmer said.

Officials stressed that the plan needed to be fleshed out, and could eventually involve large land forces deployed, if not in Ukraine, then on its western borders.

“Troops on the ground would need to be ready to fight in order to deter,” said a second western official. A third official said some capitals were already discussing the outlines of their proposals with the military leadership of Nato.

The Ukraine mission could be led by the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force, a Franco-British formation, commanded either from UK headquarters at Northwood, London, or the French headquarters at Fort Mont-Valérien outside Paris. Other European countries would also potentially contribute.

“Discussions are still in progress with several countries,” said a fourth western official. “Different modes of action are envisaged depending on the countries, with air power playing its part,” the official added.

The Elysée declined to comment.

Separately to the Franco-British concept, European Council president António Costa is surveying the EU’s 27 capitals to draw up a list of what the bloc is willing to collectively provide to Ukraine in terms of troops and weaponry that could serve as security guarantees to enforce any peace deal, according to officials briefed on the ongoing conversations.

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RedBaron said:

First exit polls have been released. Anyone know the reasoning behind The Left's recent surge and fall in support for BSW ?

Projected result for ZDF

CDU/CSU 28.5%
AfD 20%
SPD 16.5%
Greens 12%
The Left 9%
BSW 5%
FDP 5%

(via ZDF)

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Projected result for ARD1

CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 19.5%
SPD 16%
Greens 13.5%
The Left 8.5%
FDP 4.9%
BSW 4.7%

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iewgnem said:

Obviously China can just apply the same to Korean or Japan built ships when docking at Chinese ports and achieve 100% global shipbuilding monopoly, since China is a far bigger trading nation than the US>

But my gut feeling is there are even funnier things China can do.

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FriedButter said:

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The European “Peace Keepers” has been relabelled as “Reassurance Forces” by the French and British.

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FriedButter said:

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The European “Peace Keepers” has been relabelled as “Reassurance Forces” by the French and British.

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Iron Man said:

Why would Russia EVER agree to NATO troops inside Ukraine? That would constitute de facto NATO membership for Ukraine in all but name. This is utter stupidity on the part of France and UK.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

this is extremely stupid. Historical precedent established in the aftermath of Desert Storm is that attacking forces enforcing a no fly zone is legal and does not trigger Article 5 of NATO.

The difference between Russia and Iraq is that Russia has Su-57s and S-400s which can snipe Eurofighters and F-16s with R-37s over Ukrainian territory, and Russia actually has nukes.

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proelite said:

One idea might be that China should ban companies that don't operate at least 30% of Chinese-built ships from accessing Chinese-owned ports.

Geopolitical distortion on world trade from the US should be countered by one from China. It should ideally be surgical, and proportional to negate the negative effects of the US's distortion without adding any of its own.

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Overbom said:

European countries have F-35 (*provided that US gives them activation codes...)

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coolgod said:

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U.S. Pushes Kyiv to Kill Its U.N. Resolution Marking War’s Anniversary​

In a new rift, Washington and Kyiv pitch competing texts, with Europe backing Ukraine and the U.S. refusing to blame Russia for the war​

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