I honestly also have no idea why Iran's economy is so weak. I can only attribute it to that we maybe underestimated the power and the effects of Western sanctions after seeing how greatly they backfired on China and Russia recently and how they dusted them off. However, maybe they really have great harmful potency against these regional powers and 'normal' countries. It is not just Iran, look at Venezuela for example.
These kinds of countries are already not particularly prosperous even before sanctions as part of the Global South, not to mention with such sanctions. The greatest problem of sanctions is their secondary nature that literally no one wants to have much to deal with you to not offend the US, and if you are not internally self-sufficient enough and externally influential, as Russia as of recent, and China, you are kinda done for.
Generally, an autocratic regime like the Iranian (no matter its nature, if it is theocratic or secular) should have theoretically been the most effective solution for their economy, look at what Putin did for Russia for example, or CCP for China. So, I was always surprised why their economy is so shit. So something has to be missing.
It could be true that they spend too much resources and focus on religious matters. But keep in mind that what can keep such a population of a dozen ethnic groups, with Persians barely 51%, united in one place? You guessed it. It is religion. I think that they simply have to invest so much energy precisely because of that, having a trade-off.
Also, basically, some kind of religious propaganda, heavy enforcement, and a strong hand are also necessary once again to keep everything from falling apart. They are not like China which has a strong natural cultural tendency toward centralization and collectivism organically.
The issue is not being multi ethnic. There are secular ways to keep multiple ethnicities unified. China, Vietnam, and the US are all multi ethnic but they managed just fine with secular policies and economic development. The argument of ethnic homogeneity was more powerful when Japan and South Korea were the only examples of successful first world countries that weren’t white but barely registers today.
I’m in the camp of the main reason being Western sanctions and sabotage; and failure to secure the country from it. On the sanctions front, China was a bit fortunate in being so large & populated that the West could not resist its own greed to keep up the embargo. It’s also a kind of right place, right time situation as the US was so full of itself after the “end of history” that it fell right into Deng’s “hide your strength & bide your time” strategy. Iran was neither big enough nor fortunate enough to be able to establish that sort of freedom window from sanctions.
On the intelligence front, Iran is ultimately a deeply compromised society and was targeted by 50+ years of intelligence operations that proved to be very successful. Iranian leaders who were competent and courageous were regularly targeted for assassination and removal, while the percentage of cowards, sycophants, and collaborators in the government increased. If this had happened in China it would similarly be in deep **** - imagine if China’s top leaders & generals were constantly hiding in bunkers and were still regularly “disappearing” in “random” locations plane/car crashes. It wouldn’t be able to govern.
The bigger question is how China was able to avoid such a fate despite being a similarly major target for the CIA. The answer is probably along the lines of superior counter intelligence capabilities combined with an - in retrospect wise - commitment to early totalitarianism.
I remember being younger and buying into the Western propaganda that China is a horrible oppressive country because of how totalitarian CCP control was; but in reality that was the West expressing its frustration at not being able to influence & take control of Chinese society through its usual intelligence channels. If China had “liberalized” its media and social networks, it is almost certain it’d be just as compromised as Iran today.
Even as it is, there were still close calls. The Tibetan rebellion in 1959 and 2008, Tiananmen in 1989, the “umbrella revolution” in 2014, the Uyghur uprising in 2009, the Falun Gong crack down in 1999, and even Jack Ma’s attempted financial coup in 2022. I’m sure Western intelligence had a hand in each one of these incidents, whether as instigator, planner, or just operational & political support. That was the price of “opening up” one’s country to foreign influence & investment. But where China took the blows, maintained internal cohesion, & kept going, Iran buckled and lost its most effective leaders like Solemaini and possibly Raisi. In the end, that sealed its fate.
