The Ukraine War. Their Ukraine proxies tried to light up the Zaporozhye NPP and the Kursk NPP. The Ukrainian Kursk assault was planned to capture and threaten the Kursk NPP. It was planned with the help of British intelligence. Nobody doubts that Russia has nukes, and they are not as restrained as China. Despite Russia's warnings, the Anglos still did what they did.
The Anglos think that they could get away with the unthinkable using Ukrainian hands, so they would definitely think about trying the same thing with Taiwanese hands. Now will the Taiwanese be that foolish to go along, that is another discussion.
China is less or even much less restrained as Russia, none of China's civilians expect to get hit in any conflict, if the illusion of invincibility in the homeland is shattered, they will respond with near psychotic rage.
What's stopping China from levelling every building in Luzon, putting the forests on fire and hunting every adult with drones? Surely not a lack of industrial capability. Nor is it that any country could deliver enough air defenses there to make a noticeable difference in the face of 10 000s of daily arrivals (without giving up on everywhere else). What's stopping China is just a veneer of compassion by Chinese citizens and you can bet that goes away in a nanosecond if any civilian on the mainland gets hit.
Any country 300-2000km from the mainland thinking they'll attack the mainland is essentially gambling that Chinese industry will be able to produce less missiles and bombs than that nation can produce humans and buildings. I think that's the most stacked gamble in the history of gambles.
Besides, China is fighting a defensive war unlike Russia. They are morally justified to do anything in order to defend themselves.
