Miscellaneous News

[iewgnem]

China is behind the U.S. economically. China simply lacks the technological and financial complexity existent in U.S. firms.

The U.S. economy is on a productivity boom, far from any “recession”.

China thinks hotlines are the U.S. trying to push everything right to China’s redline before de-escalating and thus wants to keep the U.S. guessing in a belief it would self-moderate the U.S.

I mean, the years of chaos at Huawei would run counter to that, but yes, broadly agreed, the U.S. & China are for the most part, large economies isolated from the rest of the world.

You're confusing inflated USD value with real value. USD revenue is worth only as much as USD is worth, and USD is only worth something because you can trade with the world's largest industrial and trading nation with it.

The real technological value of Huawei is Intel + NVIDIA + Apple + Cisco + Tesla, the real value of a $20k BYD EV is the same as a $50k American EV. Having an inflated currency can buy you a narrative, but without real economic power its going to be protectionism or anhiliation in any and all industries.

 

[chgough34]

Oh cmon sleepy, both you and me know "complexity" metrics are a total bunk. Having a more "complex" economy according to some cherry picked ranking does not put you ahead economically overall.

Economic complexity is indeed a measure of development. Once people stopped subsidence agriculture and moved to the cities, they started specializing in producing one thing well and trading with others who did their thing well. Iterate this over a long period of time and you’ll get super-specialization of firms and individuals, which is development in action and economic complexity. Switzerland being more developed than the U.S. easily checks out - it has a larger gdppc than the United States

That is just a conspiracy theory as far as I can see. If China wanted to "self moderate" the US, why do incidents keep springing up that are provocative to the extreme against US?

Because the U.S. has the luxury of defining its interests so broadly and without parallel that everything is “provocative to the extreme”. The U.S. is neither an Asian country or an European country but since it itself as an external balancer is able to play both geographies, then it’s interests extent to “lol everything in Europe and Asia”. China does not dare to dream that far, in say, claiming Brazil or Cuba as “core Chinese interests”.

US' core interest right now, and what has US done that's equivalent in Asia?

Years of chaos in Huawei still put them at far better revenue than Intel.

The years of chaos with export controls means China doesn’t have any 7nm or 5nm at scale and it meant instead of innovating at the ICT frontier and spent a considerable amount of effort duplicating U.S. efforts and had to spin off honor. Huawei and Intel aren’t comparable (they don’t exist in the same market segment) but HiSilicon and Intel? Or even HiSilicon+SMIC and Intel? Yeah, lol, Intel blows them out of the water (yet more evidence of US economic complexity)

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

China has no semiconductor-exclusive ish firm that makes anywhere clear to Intel, or is able to match ultimately, the combined revenues of U.S. semiconductor companies - especially once you add in Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, and the rest.

Huawei competes in tons of market segments so it’s hard to compare Huawei against one specific firm; but the U.S. ICT sector - adding in Meta, Apple, AWS, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Cisco, IBM, Dell, EMC, Supermicro, ServiceNow, etc is once again larger than any like comparison of Chinese firms - Huawei, ZTE, Baidu, Alicloud, Tencent, and a bunch of startups.

both are pretty clear evidence of the productivity advantages US firms have

If you add the revenues of all U.S. aerospace firms - Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop, and General Dynamics - and compare it against AVIC and COMAC; the U.S. has substantially more revenues. Since there are substantial military revenues with all of them, the commercial comparison is better since that is where most of the market competition comes from, and there, Boeing Commercial Aircraft is leagues beyond COMAC

Naming companies was being illustrative on the depth and complexity of firms that no one else can match (even your attempt at corrections only went into Intel and Boeing, and ignored the rest).

If you add those then why not add ZTE, SMIC, etc?

Or better yet use a final end result aggregated metric: total IC production.

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China already has 4x wafer process capacity than the US and is on track to overtake SK and Taiwan within 2 years.

Intel also doesn't compete solely in IC manufacturing so yes they're comparable to Huawei.

AVIC also isn't the entire Chinese aerospace industry.

I don't have time to nitpick every little thing, i only need to find a single critical factual falsehood to call your entire argument into doubt.

since you love the US so much, in the US legal system there's a doctrine called falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

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[chgough34]

You're confusing inflated USD value with real value. USD revenue is worth only as much as USD is worth, and USD is only worth something because you can trade with the world's largest industrial and trading nation with it.

The real technological value of Huawei is Intel + NVIDIA + Apple + Cisco + Tesla, the real value of a $20k BYD EV is the same as a $50k American EV. Having an inflated currency can buy you a narrative, but without real economic power its going to be protectionism or anhiliation in any and all industries.

It is also the value of products that you simply cannot buy in RMB/CNY. You want a monoclonal antibody to treat arthritis? Only AbbVie, J&J, and Pfizer can get that for you. You want a large body aircraft in substantial numbers? Only Boeing and Airbus can get that for you. You want a large commercial database management system? Please consult only Oracle or Microsoft. You want industrial gases delivered at scale? Linde, Air Liquide, Praxair, Air Products and Chemical.
That China is on the technological frontier in a handful of sectors including EVs doesn’t disprove the main point; in fact, they are the exceptions that prove the rule

 

[Index]

If you add those then why not add ZTE, SMIC, etc?

Or better yet use a final end result aggregated metric: total IC production.

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China already has 4x wafer process capacity than the US and is on track to overtake SK and Taiwan within 2 years.

Intel also doesn't compete solely in IC manufacturing so yes they're comparable to Huawei.

AVIC also isn't the entire Chinese aerospace industry.

I don't have time to nitpick every little thing, i only need to find a single critical factual falsehood to call your entire argument into doubt.

since you love the US so much, in the US legal system there's a doctrine called falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Mainland China fabs are not competing with Taiwan on ICs. They're both part of China's IC industry.

 

[chgough34]

If you add those then why not add ZTE, SMIC, etc?

If you add the total revenues of ICT sectors, US firms come out far and beyond ahead with much larger market shares in just about everything, which points to the productivity differentials being accurate

Or better yet use a final end result aggregated metric: total IC production.

You would need to account for node adjustments. Not every wafer is equally productive. Far from it.

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China already has 4x wafer process capacity than the US and is on track to overtake SK and Taiwan within 2 years.

China had ~20% of global wafer shares and the Americas had ~10% so that was 2x. And even that doesn’t disprove the original point of productivity since we don’t know the nodes the wafer shares are on. 14nm and 7nm nodes are far more valuable than older nodes and Intel primarily manufacturers those nodes in Oregon and California and Arizona. So none of this disproves the original point that US workers are far more productive than Chinese workers

Intel also doesn't compete solely in IC manufacturing so yes they're comparable to Huawei.

Intel is primarily an IC firm. The only part of Huawei that’s an IC firm is HiSilicon

AVIC also isn't the entire Chinese aerospace industry.

AVIC + COMAC manufacture nearly every aircraft in China. It’s a fair comparison.

 

[Enestori]

The years of chaos with export controls means China doesn’t have any 7nm or 5nm at scale and it meant instead of innovating at the ICT frontier and spent a considerable amount of effort duplicating U.S. efforts and had to spin off honor. Huawei and Intel aren’t comparable (they don’t exist in the same market segment) but HiSilicon and Intel? Or even HiSilicon+SMIC and Intel? Yeah, lol, Intel blows them out of the water (yet more evidence of US economic complexity)

The years of chaos with export controls means USA doesn’t have any drones at scale and it meant instead of innovating at the ICT frontier and spent a considerable amount of effort duplicating Chinese efforts and had to give up on civilian drones for Sydio. Skydio and DJI aren’t comparable (they don’t exist in the same market segment) but Anduril and DJI? Or even Anduril+Skydio and DJI? Yeah, lol, DJI blows them out of the water (yet more evidence of Chinese economic complexity)

By the way, drones are much more important for actual wars. See Ukraine.

 

[iewgnem]

It is also the value of products that you simply cannot buy in RMB/CNY. You want a monoclonal antibody to treat arthritis? Only AbbVie, J&J, and Pfizer can get that for you. You want a large body aircraft in substantial numbers? Only Boeing and Airbus can get that for you. You want a large commercial database management system? Please consult only Oracle or Microsoft. You want industrial gases delivered at scale? Linde, Air Liquide, Praxair, Air Products and Chemical.
That China is on the technological frontier in a handful of sectors including EVs doesn’t disprove the main point; in fact, they are the exceptions that prove the rule

You clearly don't know how deep the supply chain goes and how many things China monopolizes. We can start with the periodic table. CEO of Raytheon went on record to say they're dependant on Chinese suppliers and it's "impossible" to decouple, this is a exclusive defence contractor under strict sourcing requirements, that might give you another clue.

China is the only country on earth with a complete industrial supply chain and Chinese industry make up 1/3 of the planet's industrial revenue, It's not about if there are things you can only get from US or only get from China, it's about how much, and the real currency value and economic size that difference implies.

The real value of US economy isn't zero, but it's far smaller than China.

 

[chgough34]

The years of chaos with export controls means USA doesn’t have any drones at scale and it meant instead of innovating at the ICT frontier and spent a considerable amount of effort duplicating Chinese efforts and had to give up on civilian drones for Sydio. Skydio and DJI aren’t comparable (they don’t exist in the same market segment) but Anduril and DJI? Or even Anduril+Skydio and DJI? Yeah, lol, DJI blows them out of the water (yet more evidence of Chinese economic complexity)

By the way, drones are much more important for actual wars. See Ukraine.

DJI cleared $4bn in revenue in 2023. It’s uhh, not comparable to the other firms I’ve listed.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Economic complexity is indeed a measure of development. Once people stopped subsidence agriculture and moved to the cities, they started specializing in producing one thing well and trading with others who did their thing well. Iterate this over a long period of time and you’ll get super-specialization of firms and individuals, which is development in action and economic complexity. Switzerland being more developed than the U.S. easily checks out - it has a larger gdppc than the United States

So you're saying that China's just getting started and already has the US on the ropes. I agree.

Because the U.S. has the luxury of defining its interests so broadly and without parallel that everything is “provocative to the extreme”.

I think they call that a crazy person LOL. How does one even define its interest without parallel? Are you just pulling words out of your ass again?

The U.S. is neither an Asian country or an European country but since it itself as an external balancer is able to play both geographies, then it’s interests extent to “lol everything in Europe and Asia”. China does not dare to dream that far, in say, claiming Brazil or Cuba as “core Chinese interests”.

Old hegemon remnants that are becoming harder and harder to look after as American power wanes and Chinese power grows. We do not dream of controlling nations and cultures from afar because we love to develop ourselves unlike American parasites. Even when we can enforce our military will there, Sun Tzu teaches that that is an unecessary overextension.

The years of chaos with export controls means China doesn’t have any 7nm or 5nm at scale and it meant instead of innovating at the ICT frontier and spent a considerable amount of effort duplicating U.S. efforts and had to spin off honor.

American short-sightedness again. It's all about profits now to please the investors, eh? LOL You keep that. For China, which plans in decades, the momentary pain is a small price to pay for indigenization and the track to the world's only self-sufficient high tech semiconductor chain.

Huawei and Intel aren’t comparable (they don’t exist in the same market segment) but HiSilicon and Intel? Or even HiSilicon+SMIC and Intel? Yeah, lol, Intel blows them out of the water (yet more evidence of US economic complexity)

What does Intel use? ASML lithography. It only blows hot air, depending on others for its foundation. America is not and has no dreams of becoming self-sufficient.

It is also the value of products that you simply cannot buy in RMB/CNY. You want a monoclonal antibody to treat arthritis? Only AbbVie, J&J, and Pfizer can get that for you. You want a large body aircraft in substantial numbers? Only Boeing and Airbus can get that for you. You want a large commercial database management system? Please consult only Oracle or Microsoft. You want industrial gases delivered at scale? Linde, Air Liquide, Praxair, Air Products and Chemical.
That China is on the technological frontier in a handful of sectors including EVs doesn’t disprove the main point; in fact, they are the exceptions that prove the rule

The main point is that China was nowhere 2 decades ago; now it has several areas where it exceeds the US and the rest of them in competition. The main point you can never grasp is that one would be in a much better position to be running faster and slightly behind than running slower and getting overtaken.

If you add the total revenues of ICT sectors, US firms come out far and beyond ahead with much larger market shares in just about everything, which points to the productivity differentials being accurate

But we don't add revenues. Why would we add the artificial value of currency when the real power of technology and innovation is the determinant?

You would need to account for node adjustments. Not every wafer is equally productive. Far from it.

China had ~20% of global wafer shares and the Americas had ~10% so that was 2x. And even that doesn’t disprove the original point of productivity since we don’t know the nodes the wafer shares are on. 14nm and 7nm nodes are far more valuable than older nodes and Intel primarily manufacturers those nodes in Oregon and California and Arizona. So none of this disproves the original point that US workers are far more productive than Chinese workers

First of all, the "original point" needs to be proven, not disproven. That's basic logic. Secondly, productivity means nothing in the face of scale. Lastly, America doesn't even dare attempt what China's doing, which is NOT making chips with foreign equipment but making everything in one country including the lithographs.

Intel is primarily an IC firm. The only part of Huawei that’s an IC firm is HiSilicon

LOL Yeah, Huawei's huge, eh? They do everything. Thanks to the US.

AVIC + COMAC manufacture nearly every aircraft in China. It’s a fair comparison.

It's a comparison between an infant and an adult. Shame on you.