Miscellaneous News

[Index]

Iran doesn’t have the hard power to have a great chance of being able to inflict meaningful, lasting damage on the US (ie sink a carrier). So unless China wants to kick off AR in the next few months, there is little benefit to Iran and America going to blows.

The US today is also very different from the one under Bush, where no concern will be had about moral responsibility or humanitarian normals.

This means that in the event of open war between the US and Iran, there is almost zero prospect that the US would burden itself with occupation and nation building afterwards (which it supremely sucks at). Instead it will just do what it does best, blow shit up on an industrial scale, collapse economic, industrial and social order and not even make any token attempts at alleviating the suffering of Iranian civilians or preserving regional stability afterwards.

I can't say if that's what they're the best at relative to everything else they try to do, but on an objective level, they're not very good at it. Vietnam being the prime example.

Russia is doing this strategy already and only 2 years in is it starting to show results, and I wonder how much is due to sustained bombing and how much is because of battlefield errors by enemy side.

Iran is well poised to defend itself, for years at least, maybe indefintely as unlike Ukraine they're drawing mobilization from a much deeper Shia/islamist recruit pool.

That means Iran will only cost America ammo, which can be quickly replenished. In turn, Russia and China will loose a valuable ally to distract and stretch American forces with.

Ammo is a huge understatement. They face the choice of inefficiently firing off long range weapons, or get close and personal with glide bombs and penetration missions which will result in carnage to the US Air Force like happened in Vietnam.

Russia gets away with what its doing in Ukraine because Russia doesn't have any enemies outside of NATO and their economy is fully secured. US doesn't have the free pass to start huge shitstorms that Russia has.

I think this is a major reason behind Russia rushing advanced weapons to Iran. Not to help fuel the fire but actually to try and control it because those new weapons won’t be operational for months if not years. The argument to Iran is, why fight now when you are so overmatched when if you wait a little, you will have all these shiny new weapons you can use that will greatly increase your odds.

I expect China to be making a similar offer on the economics side.

I think this Sino-Russian diplomacy is the main thing holding Iran back, and not because it’s truly cowed by Israeli and American military might.

Iran doesn't have to strike US/Israel now, it's not like they or their masters are on a strict timeline to achieve something. It'd be different if China/Russia was under more pressure to do something now. Wait 6 months, wait a year, situation will just be better.

US is the one that has to come to Iran sooner or later. Iran is a lot like Ukraine in that regard. Just by existing, they inevitably build up forces that will eventually overwhelm vulnerable territories whenever they feel like it. And just like West had a rare moment of clarity and pursued Minsk to give them time to arm up, it would be wise to just keep arming Iran until US inevitably has to go play in Iran's home court where they have an advantage.

 

[jiajia99]

Iran doesn’t have the hard power to have a great chance of being able to inflict meaningful, lasting damage on the US (ie sink a carrier). So unless China wants to kick off AR in the next few months, there is little benefit to Iran and America going to blows.

The US today is also very different from the one under Bush, where no concern will be had about moral responsibility or humanitarian normals.

This means that in the event of open war between the US and Iran, there is almost zero prospect that the US would burden itself with occupation and nation building afterwards (which it supremely sucks at). Instead it will just do what it does best, blow shit up on an industrial scale, collapse economic, industrial and social order and not even make any token attempts at alleviating the suffering of Iranian civilians or preserving regional stability afterwards.

That means Iran will only cost America ammo, which can be quickly replenished. In turn, Russia and China will loose a valuable ally to distract and stretch American forces with.

I think this is a major reason behind Russia rushing advanced weapons to Iran. Not to help fuel the fire but actually to try and control it because those new weapons won’t be operational for months if not years. The argument to Iran is, why fight now when you are so overmatched when if you wait a little, you will have all these shiny new weapons you can use that will greatly increase your odds.

I expect China to be making a similar offer on the economics side.

I think this Sino-Russian diplomacy is the main thing holding Iran back, and not because it’s truly cowed by Israeli and American military might.

That ammo the U.S. will have to expend to bring Iran down is not going to be quickly replenished just like that as you might believe given how hollowed out the U.S. manufacturing capability truly is right now, especially with how much the U.S. has used to help Ukraine. And also should the U.S. unleash its fire power against Iran, expecting China and Russia not to unload its arsenal against the U.S. in its time to redirected focus is simply silly. Besides both China and Russia know that should Iran fall, they will be next so if the U.S. has used up enough of its arsenal for Ukraine and Israel’s sake, it will be that much less there to deter China and Russia from hitting the U.S. on both sides of the coast and it only takes one nuke (EMP) to bring down the entire U.S. grid which in effect will almost single handedly bring down the U.S. empire over night. The USA hasn’t upgrade its air defenses for a very long time based on its assumption that they can never be hit by anyone (which right now is not true in the slightest), so unless the USA has any true Idea about what they are in for, they would need to reassess carefully in their next moves because any miscalculation right now could spell trouble for the USA. Iran is playing for time but the USA with all its troubles doesn’t have much time and even worse, they cannot bullshit themselves into playing the hero role like in Afghanistan because their support for Israel has cemented their role has the villain so any venture into Iran isn’t going to have nearly as much support which the USA has always relied on for almost every war they have fought (notice how they always need Allie’s to fight anyone these days)

 

[Temstar]

Recent Pegasus 2024 exercise in Taiwan had a TOW 2A demo, 17 missiles fired, 7 hits (41% hit rate according to below link). It's under investigation:

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https://imgur.com/AVvjXaT

https://imgur.com/FKytrAa

https://imgur.com/axmJNUv

Is that just operator error or is there something wrong with ROC's TOW missile stock? That last miss was particularly egregious.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Recent Pegasus 2024 exercise in Taiwan had a TOW 2A demo, 17 missiles fired, 7 hits (41% hit rate according to below link). It's under investigation:

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https://imgur.com/AVvjXaT

https://imgur.com/FKytrAa

https://imgur.com/axmJNUv

Is that just operator error or is there something wrong with ROC's TOW missile stock? That last miss was particularly egregious.

Their troops have become too enamored with the Alphabet groups degeneracy and lunacy. This result isn't unexpected.

 

[FriedButter]

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Macron proposed that Durov relocate Telegram to Paris – WSJ​

French President Emmanuel Macron had lunch with Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in 2018 and proposed that he move the company’s headquarters to Paris, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing anonymous sources.

Durov declined the offer at the time, the outlet said, citing people familiar with the matter. During the meeting, which has only recently come to light, Macron reportedly discussed granting French citizenship to the Russian-born entrepreneur.

According to the article, the lunch took place a year after French and United Arab Emirate intelligence services reportedly hacked Durov’s iPhone in a joint operation carried out over concerns that Telegram was being used by Islamic State to organize terrorist attacks, the report said.

“Governments have targeted Durov because of the groups that were drawn to his app, which range from pro-democracy demonstrators and dissidents to Islamist militants, drug traffickers and cybercriminals,” the WSJ wrote.

One of the sources told the outlet that for years Telegram ignored subpoenas and court orders sent by law enforcement authorities, which “piled up in a rarely checked company email address.”

The 39-year-old tech mogul was arrested on Saturday upon arriving at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport on a private jet. The Paris public prosecutor’s office has stated that Durov was apprehended as part of a broader criminal inquiry against an unnamed person. A French judge has already twice extended his detention.

According to prosecutors, Durov, who holds French, Emirati, Russian, and St Kitts and Nevis citizenship, could face charges ranging from complicity in drug dealing and money laundering, to facilitating the distribution of child pornography. The possible charges reportedly stem from what prosecutors believe to be insufficient moderation of Telegram and Durov’s failure to prevent misuse of the messenger app by bad actors.

Telegram has denied any wrongdoing stating that the platform complies with EU laws, including the bloc’s Digital Rights Act and sanctions on Russia.

While Macron has claimed that the Telegram founder’s detention was “in no way a political decision,” the arrest sparked a wave of backlash against the French authorities, with many prominent people around the world describing the move as a direct attack on free speech.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Black Hat presentation on China's Cyber Operations presented yet again by an expert Jai Hind.

@9dashline

 

[pevade]

Recent Pegasus 2024 exercise in Taiwan had a TOW 2A demo, 17 missiles fired, 7 hits (41% hit rate according to below link). It's under investigation:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

https://imgur.com/AVvjXaT

https://imgur.com/FKytrAa

https://imgur.com/axmJNUv

Is that just operator error or is there something wrong with ROC's TOW missile stock? That last miss was particularly egregious.

One of the wires got disconnected/werent connected?

 

[vincent]

Recent Pegasus 2024 exercise in Taiwan had a TOW 2A demo, 17 missiles fired, 7 hits (41% hit rate according to below link). It's under investigation:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

https://imgur.com/AVvjXaT

https://imgur.com/FKytrAa

https://imgur.com/axmJNUv

Is that just operator error or is there something wrong with ROC's TOW missile stock? That last miss was particularly egregious.

Full video

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[plawolf]

I can't say if that's what they're the best at relative to everything else they try to do, but on an objective level, they're not very good at it. Vietnam being the prime example.

Russia is doing this strategy already and only 2 years in is it starting to show results, and I wonder how much is due to sustained bombing and how much is because of battlefield errors by enemy side.

Iran is well poised to defend itself, for years at least, maybe indefintely as unlike Ukraine they're drawing mobilization from a much deeper Shia/islamist recruit pool.

Except the US has zero intention of getting into a ground war in Iran. They will bomb the place to ruin and can call it quits anytime they want.

Air power cannot hold ground, but ground troops can’t do anything against air power either.

Ammo is a huge understatement. They face the choice of inefficiently firing off long range weapons, or get close and personal with glide bombs and penetration missions which will result in carnage to the US Air Force like happened in Vietnam.

Iran doesn’t have anything like robust enough an air force or IADS to be able to trouble the US. The US can just bomb them with near impunity with F35s and JDAMs.

Russia gets away with what it’s doing in Ukraine because Russia doesn't have any enemies outside of NATO and their economy is fully secured. US doesn't have the free pass to start huge shitstorms that Russia has.

The US is still the hegemon less and until China directly challenges and defeats it. The world will do as much about them bombing Iran as they are currently doing against Israel for genociding the Palestinians.

If China or Russia directly challenges it to take advantage of its window of vulnerability, then that’s WWIII. And to he frank, no one is starting WWIII over Iran.

Iran doesn't have to strike US/Israel now, it's not like they or their masters are on a strict timeline to achieve something. It'd be different if China/Russia was under more pressure to do something now. Wait 6 months, wait a year, situation will just be better.

US is the one that has to come to Iran sooner or later. Iran is a lot like Ukraine in that regard. Just by existing, they inevitably build up forces that will eventually overwhelm vulnerable territories whenever they feel like it. And just like West had a rare moment of clarity and pursued Minsk to give them time to arm up, it would be wise to just keep arming Iran until US inevitably has to go play in Iran's home court where they have an advantage.

The US can and will just turn Iran into a failed state by systematically destroying its economic, industrial and military capabilities from the air. Iran’s only defence is its strong offence where it can deal Israel some mighty blows. But under American bombardment, they face the ‘use it or loose it’ dilemma. If Israel is prepared to endure the pain, they actually don’t have that many other cards to play. Hezbollah is a defensive force. They can give the IDF a bloody nose playing defence, but they don’t have the heavy weapons to launch effective offences to invade Israel.

Iran’s only credible deterrence will be having its own nuclear arsenal. If they achieve nuclear breakout, they can afford to grow a spin and be a mad dog like North Korea. Unless and until that happens, they need to play it smart or they will get spanked.

 

[gelgoog]

Iran doesn’t have the hard power to have a great chance of being able to inflict meaningful, lasting damage on the US (ie sink a carrier). So unless China wants to kick off AR in the next few months, there is little benefit to Iran and America going to blows.

Iran could sink a US carrier if they wanted to. The US Navy is arrogant enough to regularly parade their carriers in the middle of the Persian Gulf.

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Even if the carrier is far from Iranian territory, the Iranians have plenty of weapons which can sink a US carrier battlegroup. For example they operate the Russian Kalibr anti-ship missile and Shkval supercavitating torpedo. They also have Kilo class submarines.
They have ballistic anti-ship missiles as well like Khalij-e Fars. And they have the drones to cue those missiles.

The problem is not sinking the carrier and its battlegroup. The problem is what happens afterwards.

This means that in the event of open war between the US and Iran, there is almost zero prospect that the US would burden itself with occupation and nation building afterwards (which it supremely sucks at). Instead it will just do what it does best, blow shit up on an industrial scale, collapse economic, industrial and social order and not even make any token attempts at alleviating the suffering of Iranian civilians or preserving regional stability afterwards.

Much like what happened with Yemen though it is highly likely the Iranian military and leadership would survive in underground mountain bases.

That means Iran will only cost America ammo, which can be quickly replenished. In turn, Russia and China will loose a valuable ally to distract and stretch American forces with.

Iran could start blowing up US bases in the region with intermediate and medium range missiles.

Except the US has zero intention of getting into a ground war in Iran. They will bomb the place to ruin and can call it quits anytime they want.

How well did that work in Yemen? And that was a country which can actually be blockaded. While Iran shares a border with Russia in the Caspian Sea. China could also send them weapons overland via Afghanistan or Turkmenistan.

Iran doesn’t have anything like robust enough an air force or IADS to be able to trouble the US. The US can just bomb them with near impunity with F35s and JDAMs.

Iran does have fairly decent ground based air defenses though. Ever heard of the Khordad-15 or the Bavar-373?

The US can and will just turn Iran into a failed state by systematically destroying its economic, industrial and military capabilities from the air.

Iran can attack any bases the US would use for their strike aircraft. They have missiles with enough range. If it was that easy to bomb Iran with impunity why do you think the US has not done this yet?