Any statesman worth their salt should see it coming the first time NATO expanded. At least in China it is. Can't expect everyone to be sharp like China, but I hope Russian politicians are not totally hopeless. It certainly seemed that way prior to 2021.
Here is my take on it from China's perspective. China never thought too much about it.
Sure, Russia had very contentious relations with the West. But Putin and Merkel were good together, kept a lid on everything.
Also, China and Russia inching closer, not close like now.
That all changed during the Beijing Winter Olympics, where Putin and Xi announce China and Russia will have an unlimited friendship.
That sly fox knew his friend will have his back. And he was right. A few weeks later the war started.
The Chinese were really caught off guard. They also realize how bad relations really between Russia and the West. Hence, adjustment to the grand strategy had to be made.
Once the Hamas Israel war broke out, pretty clear which side China would prefer to be on. That Russia Ukraine war was the catalyst for dividing the world into us and them. China is making the calculation there are more of us than them. The Hamas Israel war just accelerates this process somewhat.
That is why they try to hide that war. When Israel is at war, the headlines never stop. Right now, not sure what is really happening there.
Okay, what is next? That is hard to say because most of the Western economies are flat on their back in recession.
We are seeing bit of a crisis in the West, of their power slipping away, technology, economy, military, and now the auto sector is under threat because of the Chinese EV.
Sometimes the problems come all at once and too many to handle. Then add in the mix some bad leadership, and that is the West today.
I think the non-stop propaganda is to keep their own populations in line.
Will that work?
The US presidential election will tell us the answer to that.
